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[2011.05.26] 交界处的交通

2011-5-30 07:25| 发布者: Somers| 查看: 6331| 评论: 14|原作者: sailor

摘要: 全球经济正在放缓。对于最大成员国之一的中国而言,这是一则好消息。

中国和世界经济

交界处的交通

全球经济正在放缓。对于最大成员国之一的中国而言,这是一则好消息。

May 26th 2011 | HONG KONG | from the print edition

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在过去一两年,大经济体经历了国际货币基金组织所谓的“多速”复苏。复苏类似于第三世界的交通,卡车、汽车、三轮车和自行车在同一条车道上按不同的速度行驶,常常相互超车。

但是在过去一两个月,整个交通系统放慢了。大宗商品价格的下跌情况非常明显,根据《经济学人》的大宗商品价格指数,2月中旬以来大宗商品价格下降了8.6%。美国的制造业也表现出了放缓的迹象。4月,发动机和汽车等耐用品的新订单下降了3.6%(尽管3月份强劲增长)。费城联邦储蓄银行的最新调查发现,工厂产值仍然在适度增长,但是3月以来失去的增长势头比自2008年11月以来任意两个月都要多。

美国复苏依赖财政注资的时间比大多数国家都要长。但是到8月初,联邦政府的债务达到国会制定的债务上限。提高债务上限的任何协议几乎必定需要削减开支,如果无法达成协议,就会因为政府停止举债而需要大幅削减债务。即使政府仍然可以举债,美联储也将很快停止购买国债了,因为最近一轮的量化宽松政策(用刚刚印出来的钱购买长期的债券)行将结束。

根据汇丰银行和信息提供商——麦盖提联合进行的采购经理人调查,欧元区通过经济增长摆脱困境的希望越来越渺茫。它们初步的欧元区经济指数从4月的57.8大幅下降到了5月的55.4,自2008年年末以来还未出现过这样的降幅。在服务业方面,人们对明年情况表达出的悲观态度会让人想起2009年中期的情景,当时复苏还未见任何起色。

然而,本周初步数据最引人注目的地方并不在欧洲而是在中国。根据汇丰银行的初步估计,中国的制造业下降到了51.1,远低于52.3的长期平均指数,这证实4月的工业生产数据显著放缓了。该数据的公布导致全球股市普遍下挫。上证综指数一天内回吐了今年的所有增幅。

这种强烈的反应非比寻常。与欧元区或美国不同,中国经济减速早该到来了。过去两个季度的快速增长难以为继,导致通胀率上升,令人担忧。中国政府一直在努力通过控制失控的放贷让经济放缓。工业减速是值得欢迎的迹象,证明这些措施正在起作用。

汇丰称,采购经理人指数超过50表明产值在上升,51.1的采购经理人指数与9%的国内生产总值是协调一致的。但是这一数字立即引发了硬着陆会严重得多的担忧。观察人士可能担心,已然失控的通胀会迫使政府打压经济来控制物价。比如,1994年年底,中国面临了超过25%的通胀率。在接下来的两年,严厉的宏观调控使经济增长率下降了4.6%。

但是目前中国的通胀率只有5.3%。蔬菜价格已经下降,剔除食品的通胀率可能正趋向缓和。中国通胀率的顽固程度超出预期。但是经济增长没有必要放缓4%来平抑通胀。

一些观察人士担心,经济将失去动力,因为煤炭越来越贵,电力供应不足。最近几个月,中国工业深受停电之苦,让人想起2004时的情形。但是资本经济公司的马克•威廉指出,中国当时断电是因为发电站没有发出足够的电。现在受停电之苦是因为发电站无法获得足够的利润。政府不允许电价与煤炭价格同步上涨,迫使电力生产商亏本运营。提高电价是解决之道,即使这在短期内会使通胀率上升。

最后一个担忧的理由,同时也是最重要的。许多人担心,中国过热的房地产市场会崩溃,产生难以支撑的债务。瑞银证券的王涛(音)指出,政府限制抵押贷款和投机性购房的措施对销售情况产生了一定的影响(到今年4月为止下降了10%),但是没有对新房建设产生影响。或许政府推动建设更多的经济适用房是为了抵消商品房建设的减速。

如果房市泡沫破灭,开发商将遭受重创。最近的买房者也会觉得自己做了亏本生意。但是与美国不同,在中国,住房是一种存款方式,而不是一种举债方式。尽管按揭贷款已经快速上升到了“膝盖”的高度,但是房主的按揭贷款债务还没到“脖子”的高度:去年占到可支配性收入的三分之一,两年前还不到四分之一。如果房价大幅下跌,给房主带来的财产损失可能挫伤消费的积极性。但是他们不会不堪重负。

各银行也表示,它们对房地产的风险敞口是可控的,大约占到总贷款的20%。它们间接的风险敞口可能要大得多。但是它们的不良贷款比例一旦过高,政府就会干预。正如渣打银行的王志浩所说,“少量的不良贷款是银行的问题,大量的不良贷款就是政府的问题了”。

由于中国经济不可能发生硬着陆,人们对其经济的情绪波动很难理解。王先生给出了一个解释:“大多数外国人是通过商品市场了解中国的”。她说:“在这个市场里,事情往往会受到重点关注……它们要么是好消息,要么是灾难。”它像不为人知的《金发女孩和两只熊猫》的故事。中国经济不是过热就是过冷,但是从未恰到好处过。

 
 
本文由译者 sailor 提供 点击此处阅读双语版

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引用 vegeLisa 2011-5-27 22:00
本帖最后由 vegeLisa 于 2011-5-27 22:01 编辑

仔细拜读了楼主的译文~~因为我本来是想选这篇的,后来怕贪多嚼不烂所以没选~~事实证明我是明智的,因为这是我最不擅长的经济类文章,呵呵~~辛苦楼主了!

在以下几处,我的意见不同楼主~~

1、二段结尾处November 2008中November漏译了~~小问题啦~~

2、第四段In services the pessimism expressed about the coming year was reminiscent of mid-2009, before the recovery had picked up any speed at all.
楼主译为“在服务业方面,悲观人士认为明年将使人们会想起2009年中期的情景,当时复苏还未见任何起色。”
我认为此句主语为pessimism,expressed about the coming year是过去分词结构,作为pessimism的定语从句,而该句真实的宾语其实是was,表语为reminiscent。所以换作是我,我可能会译为:
“在服务业方面,对来年形势的悲观态度让人们想起2009年中期的情景,当时复苏还未见任何起色。”

3、But China had outages then because its power stations could not make enough power
楼主译为“中国当时愤怒不已是因为发电站没有发出足够的电”
楼主可能看错了一个词——outages(中断供应),而不是outrages(愤怒)~~So~~你懂的,呵呵~~

4、The Chinese economy is either too hot or too cold, but never just right.
楼主译为“中国经济不冷也不热,但是也从未刚刚好过。”
这句译文本身就前后矛盾——既不冷也不热,还未刚刚好过。这是因为楼主可能对一个词组看走眼了:either...or~~而不是neither...nor。所以换作是我,我可能会译为:
“中国的经济不是过冷就是过热,就是从未恰到好处。”

若有不妥,欢迎指正~~

再次感谢楼主的努力!!
引用 sailor 2011-5-28 06:52
回复 vegeLisa 的帖子

谢谢指正,太粗心,这么多地方看花眼,呵呵!
引用 sunisthetime 2011-5-29 11:00

Good stuff。
除了。标题:
十字路口的中国经济?

个人意见,请勿见怪
引用 volver 2011-5-30 09:00
GOOD work!
引用 xbx_lee 2011-5-30 09:23
often getting in each other’s way

时常相互阻挡。
引用 sailor 2011-5-30 13:39
回复 sunisthetime 的帖子

我觉得全文来看,也不是这个意思。这里应该是一个比喻,描述的是中国和世界经济增长的现状。
引用 BTnuts 2011-5-30 21:04
Any deal to raise the limit would almost certainly require spending reductions.
提高债务上限的任何协议几乎必定需要削减开支。
spending reductions是指要花本来削减掉的开支吧?
引用 BTnuts 2011-5-30 21:04
Any deal to raise the limit would almost certainly require spending reductions.
提高债务上限的任何协议几乎必定需要削减开支。
spending reductions是指要花本来削减掉的开支吧?
引用 BTnuts 2011-5-30 21:04
Any deal to raise the limit would almost certainly require spending reductions.
提高债务上限的任何协议几乎必定需要削减开支。
spending reductions是指要花本来削减掉的开支吧?
引用 sailor 2011-5-30 21:40
回复 BTnuts 的帖子

不是这个意思,是党派斗争中共和党提出的要求,需要削减开支。
引用 BTnuts 2011-5-30 21:44
回复 sailor 的帖子

哦,对对。呵呵,我晕了。我把spending和reduction分开看了。见笑啦~
引用 chuck_norris 2011-5-31 16:22
本帖最后由 chuck_norris 于 2011-5-31 16:24 编辑

Their “flash” (ie, preliminary) index for the euro-area economy fell sharply from 57.8 in April to 55.4 in May

这个index指的不是经济指数,是pmi,即采购经理人指数
前文有提示,图表有标明。
此处flash(ie,preliminary)的意思是brief,简要的,初步的
引用 wonder041111 2011-6-1 10:10
本帖最后由 wonder041111 于 2011-6-1 10:12 编辑
sunisthetime 发表于 2011-5-29 11:00
Good stuff。
除了。标题:
十字路口的中国经济?


比较同意译者意见
引用 sunisthetime 2011-6-2 16:19
本帖最后由 sunisthetime 于 2011-6-2 16:34 编辑

回复 sailor 的帖子

谢谢回应。
文中提到:
第一段:世界经济放慢,对中国是个好消息。
后面:由于面临通胀,zf通过政策来抑制通胀,经济增速趋缓,但还在增长中(pmi超过50%,cpi5.3%),比1994年那次cpi 25%的情况要好很多。
受人关注的房贷问题,其中蕴藏的风险不如想象得那么大。
结尾:中国经济没人们预期地那么好,但也没那么差。

个人怀疑标题来自Jimi Hendrix 的《Crosstown Traffic 》
Jimi Hendrix Crosstown Traffic

You jump in front of my car when you,
You know all the time that
Ninety miles an hour, girl, is the speed I drive
You tell me it's alright, you don't mind a little pain
You say you just want me to take you for a ride

You're just like crosstown traffic
So hard to get through to you
Crosstown traffic
I don't need to run over you
Crosstown traffic
All you do is slow me down
And I'm tryin' to get on the other side of town

I'm not the only soul who's accused of hit and run
Tire tracks all across your back
I can see you had your fun
But darlin' can't you see my signals turn from green to red
And with you I can see a traffic jam straight up ahead

You're just like crosstown traffic
So hard to get through to you
Crosstown traffic
I don't need to run over you
Crosstown traffic
All you do is slow me down
And I got better things on the other side of town

结合通篇观点:谨慎看好中国经济,
标题试翻译为:中国经济:艰难中前行。
请多指教。

By the way,
找到一篇有关 Goldilocks的童话,with the 3 bears( but not with 2 pandas)。
如果panda是中国的隐喻,那么这个童话的寓意大概类似于小马过河,和结尾相呼应。

BTW:The Story of Goldilocks and the Three Bears

Once upon a time, there was a little girl named Goldilocks.  She  went for a walk in the forest.  Pretty soon, she came upon a house.  She knocked and, when no one answered, she walked right in.

At the table in the kitchen, there were three bowls of porridge. Goldilocks was hungry.  She tasted the porridge from the first bowl.

"This porridge is too hot!" she exclaimed.

So, she tasted the porridge from the second bowl.

"This porridge is too cold," she said

So, she tasted the last bowl of porridge.

"Ahhh, this porridge is just right," she said happily and she ate it all up.

After she'd eaten the three bears' breakfasts she decided she was feeling a little tired.  So, she walked into the living room where she saw three chairs.  Goldilocks sat in the first chair to rest her feet.   

"This chair is too big!" she exclaimed.

So she sat in the second chair.

"This chair is too big, too!"  she whined.

So she tried the last and smallest chair.

"Ahhh, this chair is just right," she sighed.  But just as she settled down into the chair to rest, it broke into pieces!

Goldilocks was very tired by this time, so she went upstairs to the bedroom.  She lay down in the first bed, but it was too hard. Then she lay in the second bed, but it was too soft. Then she lay down in the third bed and it was just right.  Goldilocks fell asleep.

As she was sleeping, the three bears came home.

"Someone's been eating my porridge," growled the Papa bear.

"Someone's been eating my porridge," said the Mama bear.

"Someone's been eating my porridge and they ate it all up!" cried the Baby bear.

"Someone's been sitting in my chair," growled the Papa bear.

"Someone's been sitting in my chair," said the Mama bear.

"Someone's been sitting in my chair and they've broken it all to pieces," cried the Baby bear.

They decided to look around some more and when they got upstairs to the bedroom, Papa bear growled, "Someone's been sleeping in my bed,"

"Someone's been sleeping in my bed, too" said the Mama bear

"Someone's been sleeping in my bed and she's still there!" exclaimed Baby bear.

Just then, Goldilocks woke up and saw the three bears.  She screamed, "Help!"  And she jumped up and ran out of the room.  Goldilocks ran down the stairs, opened the door, and ran away into the forest.  And she never returned to the home of the three bears.

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