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[2011.06.02] IMF领导人选战领先者可以从对手身上学到些什么

2011-6-9 08:05| 发布者: Somers| 查看: 3932| 评论: 18|原作者: majer

摘要: 招募首席消防员
083 Finance and economics - Economics focus.mp3

经济焦点

招募首席消防员


IMF领导人选战领先者可以从对手身上学到些什么


Jun 2nd 2011 | from the print edition



在IMF总裁之争中,克里斯汀•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)可能已领先了数个身位。不过,即使这位法国财长能够如人们所预料那样轻松赢得这一职位,她也应该好好考虑三位竞争对手的观点:色列的斯坦利•费希尔(Stanley Fischer)、墨西哥的奥古斯丁•卡尔腾斯(Agustin Carstens)以及哈萨克斯坦的格里高利•马尔琴科(Grigori Marchenko),这三位都是央行行长,在这一沉闷科学中浸淫多年。拉加德固然拥有政治技巧和律师经验,但IMF的职责是救火,需要繁琐的货币和经济分析。

不管谁获胜,都将接手一个790亿欧元(1140亿美元)的贷款承诺,相当于总贷款承诺的三分之二,对象是正在债务负担中苦苦挣扎同时又忙于在无法贬值货币的情况下实现经济复苏的三个欧元区国家。许多经济学家认为,希腊——或许还有爱尔兰和葡萄牙——将不得不减记债务。据称在考虑竞选该职位的费希尔2002年时曾说,经济学家接受一国违约要比该国政客更容易得多。这位1994—2001年间的IMF二把手还说:“需要面对政治后果的是政客。”

费希尔认为,政客“大步向前以避免违约无可非议”。但什么样的步子才算过大?2001年1月,IMF给了阿根廷一笔巨额“最后机会”贷款,帮助其抚慰债权人。结果以失败告终。2001年8月,IMF又给了阿根廷第二次最后机会。结果再次以失败告终。费希尔认为8月的贷款有“不小”的成功机会——大可藉此避免随后的崩盘。但其他人并不赞同。前IMF研究主管迈克尔•马萨(Michael Mussa)说,8月份得贷款是“我的十年IMF生涯中所看到的最大错误。”

公开宣布竞选的卡尔腾斯拥有关于“重组一国债务意味着什么”这一问题的第一手经验。1990年,墨西哥用无法偿还的银行债务换取价值缩水了35%的布雷迪(Brady)债券,卡尔腾斯是这笔交易的谈判者之一。与费希尔一样,他认为应该把类似的重组视为“最后机会”。尽管如此,他认为,墨西哥在最终接受布雷迪债券之前经历了7—8年的债务重排、展期和援助,这实在是太长了。他指出,更好的参考案例是2003年乌拉圭债券谈判,这场以自愿为基础的谈判,两个月就有了结果。但这这条路并不好走:只有在进行了增加一国偿付能力的改革闯关之后,重组才能见效,卡尔腾斯说。

欧洲政客为何要担心违约?原因之一是这会对持有这些债务的银行形成重大冲击。在亚洲金融危机中,IMF敦促政府尽快清理银行体系,以做亡羊补牢之举。IMF的批评者指出,这使得衰退雪上加霜。修复需要时间。但费希尔曾指出,这并不是拖延的理由。他引用法国将军利奥泰(Hubert Lyautey)对其园丁的话说:如果一棵树要150年才能成熟,那就越发要尽早将它种下去。

说到修理金融体系,没有比俄罗斯所支持的候选人马尔琴科更激进的了。1991年哈萨克斯坦独立后,随着国有企业获得廉价的央行信贷而纷纷设立银行,金融机构如雨后春笋般冒了出来。从1994年开始,监管者关闭了大批银行。华盛顿彼得森国际经济学研究所的阿斯伦德(Anders Aslund)说,“坚韧不拔”的马尔琴科“以关闭了80家银行而自豪。”。

各位候选人在IMF所面临的其他问题上立场如何呢?20世纪90年代末,新兴经济体经历了资本外逃和货币大幅贬值。如今,令它们烦恼的是资本流入和货币升值。即使在亚洲金融危机后,费希尔依然认为“有序”的资本账户自由化应该是IMF的核心目标之一。但他也认为,资本流入管制虽然不太光彩,但有时也不得不为。事实上,他本人在1月份的时候就曾下令以色列银行对与非居民进行的外汇衍生品交易实行资本储备制度。

当务之急

4月,IMF公布了指导各国考虑这些措施的“框架”。拉加德很遗憾这一“框架”在识别由外部事件所造成的资本流入和由一国自身光明前景所吸引的资本流入方面不够“精确”。她说,对于前者,可以采取适当的管制,但后者则否。

影响资本流动的一大外部因素可能是美国货币政策。美联储激进的宽松政策压低了收益率,促使资本流向别处。原则上,一国可以通过允许本币对美元上浮来使自己免受美联储动作的影响。但在实践中,各国都不愿意这样做,担心货币过度强势会影响出口。

改革严重依赖美元的国际货币体系是拉加德祖国——目前是G20经济大国集团的主席国——的野心之一。这位法国人已建提出要让IMF自身的综合储备资产——特别提款权(SDR)扮演更重要的角色。SDR的价值基础是一篮子货币(美元、欧元、日元和英镑),有朝一日可能会将人民币也纳入其中。

SDR能够在实现世界经济再平衡方面起作用吗?“短期内不能,”卡尔腾斯说。说到底,SDR无非是一个由国家货币组成的货币束,是其组成部分的加和而已。卡尔腾斯认为,从长期看也许会有一些间接益处。如果中国希望让人民币进入SDR,它可能被迫首先让其资本账户自由化。这件事本身就值得欢迎,精明的律师毫无疑问可以像犀利的经济学家那样立刻意识到这一点。

from the print edition | Finance and Economics

 
 
本文由译者 majer 提供 点击此处阅读双语版

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引用 yannanchen 2011-6-9 11:21
who are central bankers as well as practitioners of the dismal science:
dismal science=economics
不但是经济科学的实践者,也是......
引用 yannanchen 2011-6-9 11:23
Political prowess is not to be sniffed at, nor is Ms Lagarde’s record as a lawyer,
=Ms Lagarde’s political prowess is not to be underestimated, nor is Ms Lagarde’s record as a lawyer to be underestimated.
引用 yannanchen 2011-6-9 11:28
policymakers are “right to go far to avoid default”. But how far is too far?
为避免违约决策者竭力苦撑是对的, 但是苦撑到什么程度才不算过分?
引用 yannanchen 2011-6-9 11:32
August loan had a “non-negligible” chance of success—one worth taking to avoid the catastrophe that followed. 8月的贷款有“不小”的成功机会——大可藉此避免随后的崩盘。

8月贷款有“不小”的成功机会——为了避免随后的崩盘这个险值得冒。

take a chance 冒险
引用 yannanchen 2011-6-9 11:35
本帖最后由 yannanchen 于 2011-6-9 22:56 编辑

as tough as they come 何义?

一般公式:
as something as they come = as much of a particular characteristic as is possible

e.g.
Eric is as competitive as they come and always trying to win.
引用 yannanchen 2011-6-9 11:35
be as [crazy/rich etc.] as they come
to be very rich, crazy etc. Jenny's as crazy as they come.
引用 yannanchen 2011-6-9 11:42
The quick answer is no
简(单明)快的回答是否定的。
The longer answer, he says, is that it might have some indirect benefits.
啰嗦一点说, 也许有可能有某些间接的好处。
引用 kool 2011-6-9 13:13
不管谁获胜,都将接手一个790亿欧元(1140亿美元)的贷款承诺,相当于总贷款承诺的三分之二,对象是正在债务负担中苦苦挣扎同时又忙于在无法贬值货币的情况下实现经济复苏的三个欧元区国家。
~~~~~~~~~~~
语序改一下,拆成几个句子比较好理解。中文没有合适的插入语句式。
IMF 承诺将×××贷款给三个欧元区国家。这笔贷款相当于IMF总贷款额×××,
引用 dinw 2011-6-9 17:46
IMF给了阿根廷一笔巨额“最后机会”贷款
一笔巨大的“最后机会”贷款
引用 dinw 2011-6-9 17:57
a very last resort,视为“最后机会”
最最后的手段,resort译为手段为好,因为有action的概念在里面。两个最强调very last
引用 sunisthetime 2011-6-9 19:00
本帖最后由 sunisthetime 于 2011-6-9 19:01 编辑

Repairs take time. But that is no reason for delay,
恢复需要时间,但拖拉没有道理。

says that Mr Marchenko “prides himself on having closed 80 banks”. He is “as tough as they come”.
据称Marchenko先生夸耀自己意志坚定,曾关闭过80家银行。

Non-Resident 非常住人口
What Does It Mean?
What Does Non-Resident Mean?
An individual who mainly resides in one region or jurisdiction but has interests in another region. In the region where he or she does not mainly reside, he or she will be classified by government authorities as a non-resident. The classification itself will be determined in each region based on set circumstances such as the amount of time spent within the region during the calendar year. This classification is focused on where the person resides and does not focus on citizenship.
Investopedia Says
Investopedia explains Non-Resident
For example, many individuals live in one state but have business in another region and derive income from sources within that region. If a non-resident generates taxable income within another region, he or she will have to file a separate tax return within the region compared to residents of that region. In other cases, a non-resident may have to pay more to go to college in a state where he or she does not primarily reside.




“The quick answer is no,” says Mr Carstens. It is, after all, only a bundle of national currencies—no more than the sum of its parts. The longer answer, he says, is that it might have some indirect benefits. If the Chinese want the yuan included in the SDR, they will probably have to liberalise their capital account first. That would be welcome in itself—as a shrewd lawyer would no doubt be as quick to point out as a sharp economist.
“简单地说,当然不行”,Carstens先生回答。因为特别提款权的数额并不是所有列为储备的货币的总和,而只不过是这些货币的总量的一小部分而已。“详细地说,特别提款权的存在还是有些间接好处的。比如说,人民币要想成为储备货币之一,中国就必须先让人民币资本账户自由化。" 不管是律师还是经济学者,只要他不傻,都会欢迎中国的举措的。
引用 sunisthetime 2011-6-9 19:07
chief firefighter 救火队长
标题翻译成:
急招消防队队长一名,有经验者优先。
副标题:准队长任重道远
引用 dahuaer 2011-6-9 19:08
dismal science   沉闷[枯燥]的科学(资本主义社会中讽刺政治经济学)
引用 dahuaer 2011-6-9 19:22
哦,我上网查了查,经济学在东西方世界中也有不同的称呼,在西方资本主义世界中称为经济学而在东方的社会主义世界中称为政治经济学
引用 yannanchen 2011-6-9 19:37
本帖最后由 yannanchen 于 2011-6-9 19:39 编辑

Political economyFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaJump to: navigation, search
Political economy originally was the term for studying production, buying, and selling, and their relations with law, custom, and government, as well as with the distribution of national income and wealth, including through the budget process. Political economy originated in moral philosophy. It developed in the 18th century as the study of the economies of states, polities, hence political economy.

In the late nineteenth century, the term 'economics' came to replace 'political economy', coinciding with publication of an influential textbook by Alfred Marshall in 1890.[1] Earlier, William Stanley Jevons, a proponent of mathematical methods applied to the subject, advocated 'economics' for brevity and with the hope of the term becoming "the recognised name of a science."[2][3]

Today, political economy, where it is not used as a synonym for economics, may refer to very different things, including Marxian analysis, applied public-choice approaches emanating from the Chicago school and the Virginia School, or simply the advice given by economists to the government or public on general economic policy or on specific proposals.[3] A rapidly-growing mainstream literature from the 1970s has expanded beyond the model of economic policy in which planners maximize utility of a representative individual toward examining how political forces affect the choice of policies, especially as to distributional conflicts and political institutions.[4] It is available as an area of study in certain colleges and universities.

引用 yannanchen 2011-6-9 19:42
"The dismal science" is a derogatory alternative name for economics devised by the Victorian historian Thomas Carlyle in the 19th century. The term is an inversion of the phrase "gay science," meaning "life-enhancing knowledge", a reference to the technical skills of song and verse writing. This was a familiar expression at the time, and was later adopted as the title of a book by Nietzsche (see The Gay Science).

It is often stated that Carlyle gave economics the nickname "the dismal science" as a response to the late 18th century writings of The Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus, who grimly predicted that starvation would result as projected population growth exceeded the rate of increase in the food supply.[1][2] Carlyle did indeed use the word 'dismal' in relation to Malthus' theory in his essay Chartism (1839):

The controversies on Malthus and the 'Population Principle', 'Preventive Check' and so forth, with which the public ear has been deafened for a long while, are indeed sufficiently mournful. Dreary, stolid, dismal, without hope for this world or the next, is all that of the preventive check and the denial of the preventive check.
However, the full phrase "the dismal science" first occurs in Carlyle's 1849 tract entitled Occasional Discourse on the Negro Question, in which he was arguing for the reintroduction of slavery as a means to regulate the labor market in the West Indies:

Not a "gay science," I should say, like some we have heard of; no, a dreary, desolate and, indeed, quite abject and distressing one; what we might call, by way of eminence, the dismal science.
Carlyle argued that slavery was actually morally superior to the market forces of supply and demand promoted by economists, since, in his view, the freeing up of the labor market by the liberation of slaves had actually led to a moral and economic decline in the lives of the former slaves themselves.

Carlyle's view was attacked by John Stuart Mill and other liberal economists.

The teachings of Malthus eventually became known under the umbrella phrase "Malthus' Dismal Theorem". His predictions were forestalled by dramatic improvements in the efficiency of food production in the 20th century during the Green Revolution; yet the bleak end he proposed remains as a disputed future possibility.

引用 vajoy 2011-6-9 21:42
新建的经济学人QQ交流群!拒绝广告拒绝占位置 103971082  喜欢英语喜欢经济学人的朋友欢迎加入交流!
a new-bulit Q-group for ECOCNers,no ads,no place-waste,thx
引用 dahuaer 2011-6-9 21:58
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