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[2011.06.20] 违约还是不违约?

2011-6-21 20:00| 发布者: Somers| 查看: 4469| 评论: 7|原作者: migmig

摘要: 一些国家从债务违约中受益
主权(债务)违约和国民生产总值

违约还是不违约?


Jun 20th 2011, 14:03 by The Economist online


一些国家从拖欠债务中受益


理论上讲,担心主权(债务)违约造成经济损失应当在惩罚打算拒绝偿还债务的国家中起到重要作用。不过,随着违约国家发现它们只是一段时间不被进入市场,任何对违规的(增长)惩罚都是短暂的。在2001年12月违约之后第二年,阿根廷的GDP下降了10.9%。不过随后几年,它的经济迅速反弹。乌拉圭、俄罗斯和印度尼西亚在各自违约之后,表现都相当不错。不过,经济学家警告不能将这些数字解读为“违约促进增长”。他们指出,通常在经济周期的最糟时刻才会出现违约,所以,按照违约国家的标准,违约前几年经济状况就已经欠佳了。此外,国家之间的情况差异很大。格林纳达、喀麦隆、伯利兹或多米尼加共和国在违约之后表现糟糕,对于乌拉圭违约后的繁荣,它们很难有什么慰藉。

 
 
 
本文由译者 migmig 提供 点击此处阅读双语版



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引用 migmig 2011-6-21 00:32
本帖最后由 migmig 于 2011-6-21 15:09 编辑

default  拖欠还是  违约


维基
A sovereign default is a failure by the government of a sovereign state to pay back its debt in full.

If potential lenders or bond purchasers begin to suspect that a government may fail to pay back its debt, they may demand a high interest rate in compensation for the risk of default. A dramatic rise in the interest rate faced by a government due to fear that it will fail to honor its debt is sometimes called a sovereign debt crisis. Governments may be especially vulnerable to a sovereign debt crisis when they rely on financing through short-term bonds, since this creates a situation of maturity mismatch between their short-term bond financing and the long-term asset value of their tax base. They may also be vulnerable to a sovereign debt crisis due to currency mismatch if they are unable to issue bonds in their own currency, as a decrease in the value of their own currency may then make it prohibitively expensive to pay back their foreign-denominated bonds (see original sin).[citation needed]

Since a sovereign government, by definition, controls its own affairs, it cannot be obliged to pay back its debt. Nonetheless, a government which defaults may be excluded from further credit; some of its overseas assets may be seized; and it may face political pressure from its own domestic bondholders to pay back its debt. Therefore governments rarely default on the entire value of their debt. Instead, they often enter into negotiations with their bondholders to agree on a delay or partial reduction of their debt payments, which is often called a debt restructuring or 'haircut'.

The International Monetary Fund often assists in sovereign debt restructurings. To ensure that funds will be available to pay the remaining part of the sovereign debt, it often makes its loans conditional on austerity measures within the country, such as tax increases or reductions in public sector jobs and services. A recent example is the Greek bailout agreement of May 2010.
引用 chuck_norris 2011-6-21 14:45
本帖最后由 chuck_norris 于 2011-6-21 14:52 编辑

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违约
default就是指借款人无法或者不想还债;
对于Sovereign defaults来说,国家基本不会承担法律后果,不会破产。国家会和债权人重新谈判诸如利率,期限,或者偿还本金。
引用 migmig 2011-6-21 15:10
chuck_norris 发表于 2011-6-21 14:45
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违约

拖欠应该是违约的(一种)表现形式吧。
引用 王呆呆 2011-6-22 17:11
回复 migmig 的帖子

违约,,看的专业英语上没有拖欠
引用 charlesbryan 2011-6-22 21:56
理论上讲,担心主权(债务)违约造成经济损失应当在惩罚打算拒绝偿还债务的国家中起到重要作用。

这第一句有问题。我猜译者就没大看懂。读者就更不用说了。

需要明确的是:fears 是那些有心想要赖债不还的国家的担心。欠债不还会影响本国经济,所以一个国家有心欠债,先得掂量掂量对自身经济的损害。
引用 migmig 2011-6-22 22:33
charlesbryan 发表于 2011-6-22 21:56
理论上讲,担心主权(债务)违约造成经济损失应当在惩罚打算拒绝偿还债务的国家中起到重要作用。

这第一句 ...

一开始翻的是:
对主权债务违约可能造成经济损害的担忧应该可在惩戒那些企图赖账的国家中发挥重要作用

后来把 对……的担忧 换成 担心……

这句话开始没看懂,需参考后文。
引用 charlesbryan 2011-6-22 23:15
回复 migmig 的帖子

看看是不是这个意思:

理论上讲,打算拒绝偿还债务的国家,最大的顾虑是主权(债务)违约会对本国经济造成伤害。

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