[2011.07.21] 中国保险业

引用 join_soon 2011-8-11 01:42

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Very interesting. －－－－－－－－－－－－－ Where the state does too little 国家所为甚少 China’s insurance industry holds a mirror to the government 中国的保险业是中国政府的一面写照 THE insurance industry, designed as it is to smooth over life’s dramas, is meant to be somewhat dull. Insurers themselves mostly conform to this type: they produce modest, consistent returns—steady growth and, to reassure the skittish, a dividend. Things are different in China. Dividends are a trivial component of share prices, and the industry’s growth prospects are breathtaking, not boring. 被计划用以平息人生起伏的保险业，理应是有点波澜无惊的。保险公司本身大多数符合这一类型：他们产出适度且稳定的收益——稳妥的增长和不确定的分红。但在中国却非如此。分红只是股价中微不足道的部分而已，保险业的发展前景是奇妙的而非无趣的。 One measure of its buoyancy is the industry’s resilience in the face of a series of recent setbacks. Concerns over questionable sales practices have prompted regulators to restrict banks’ distribution of life-insurance products, a channel that is responsible for about half of all life sales. If that was not bad enough, the end of subsidies for car purchases introduced during the global crisis removed a main impetus for sales of car-insurance policies. Car insurance is three-quarters of the country’s property and casualty business. 从在面临最近一系列阻碍时保险业的恢复能力，可以估量出这种乐观前景。由于对备受争议的销售行为存有担忧，监管机构已限制寿险产品在各银行的销售，银行这个渠道承载了寿险的大约一半销售额。雪上加霜的是，在全球金融危机期间推行的购车补贴也将结束，这使车险销售的一个主要推动力将受阻。车险在中国财产险和意外险业务中占了四分之三的份额。 Even so life-insurance sales are off by only 5% so far this year, compared with the same period in 2010, and car-insurance sales, after slowing early in the year, seem to be rebounding. In the longer term most analysts are looking at 15% earnings growth for both life and non-life products for years to come. Optimists think growth in excess of 20% a year is a good bet. 即便如此，今年迄今为止的寿险销售比2010年同期下降了仅仅5%，而在今年年初放缓的车险销售，似乎也有所回暖。从更长期来看，许多分析都预见在未来几年里寿险和非寿险产品的收益都将上涨15%，乐观者认为，每年增长20%有余的前景是很有可能实现的。 Some of the reasons for this rosy prospect are obvious: China’s size, its growing wealth and the immaturity of the industry (see chart) all explain its potential. But the fact that the industry has so far to go also reflects two historic shifts in government policy, one which set the market back and the other now propelling it forward. 之所以会看好这种前景，原因很明显：中国的发展规模，其不断增加的财富和仍未饱和的保险业（如图所示），这一切都可以说明该行业的发展潜力。但事实是，保险业到目前为止也反映出了政府政策的两次历史性转变，一次阻碍了该行业市场的发展，而另一次现在正起到促进作用。 The first shift dates back to the revolution and wiped out the industry. British firms began selling policies in China in 1846. In 1875 a precursor to the current China Merchants group entered the market. AIG was founded in Shanghai in 1919. Small agencies peddling policies speckled the streets of major cities, says Paul French, a Shanghai-based writer. 第一次政策的转变追溯至革命时代，这次转变让该行业元气大伤。英国公司在1846就开始在中国销售保险。在1875年，中国招商局的前身进入该市场。AIG于1919年在上海成立。驻扎于上海的作家Paul French说，销售保险的小机构遍布各主要城市的大街小巷。 All, however, were tossed out or shut down after the revolution on the premise that the state provided all, so there was no need for a separate intermediary. Even hard-core communists were gradually convinced of the need for shipping insurance for the country’s tiny foreign trade—no one wanted to allow anything on a boat if there wasn’t a clear way of being reimbursed if it did not arrive. A single company, the People’s Insurance Company of China (PICC), was established as a government monopoly, although the amount of business it did was trivial. 然而，在革命之后，由于国家提供了一切保险，就无须独立的中间机构了，所有机构都得弃用或关闭。即便顽固不化的共产党人逐渐相信有必要为国家最小笔外贸提供船运保险——如果船不抵达的情况下没有如何偿付的明确方式，没有人会想允许任何东西装载上船。唯一的公司——中国人民保险集公司（PICC）是政府设立的垄断集团，然而它所承接的业务少之甚少。 Things began to change in 1988 when China Merchants was able to convince the government that it should be allowed back into the business it had set up for China a century before. It was permitted to establish Ping An Insurance, at first providing coverage for trucks moving goods from a single part of Shenzhen in the south of the country. Eventually, insurance offices were established at the end of each truck route. 到了1988年，形势开始有所改变，中国招商局能说服政府去允许那些一个世纪前就在中国开展的保险业务回归。于是，平安保险被允许设立，首家为从中国南部的深圳的某个地区开出的汽车货运产品提供保险。最后还在每条汽运线路的终点处都设立了保险办事处。 From these modest roots, an extraordinarily valuable industry has emerged. Ping An is now worth $66 billion. PICC has been broken up into at least three bits. One part, China Life, is the only pure insurance company in the world worth more than Ping An; another part, carrying the old PICC name and selling property and casualty insurance, is worth $20 billion; a third will go public soon. Various other insurance companies have emerged as well, often carved out of a state entity. China Pacific, a Shanghai-based firm, is worth $30 billion. Along with these giants there are hundreds of smaller outfits and dozens of foreign-linked ventures, all crowding into what they sense is a growing market. 得益于这些适度的发展根源，一个具有极大价值的行业开始崛起。平安保险的市值现达660亿美元。中国人民保险公司则被分解为三小块。一块是中国人寿保险，在世界上仅以保险为业务的公司里是唯一一家市值高于平安保险的公司；另一块，仍沿用旧中国人民保险公司的名字，主打财产险和意外险，市值达200亿美元；还有一块将会公开上市。Various other insurance companies have emerged as well, often carved out of a state entity. China Pacific, a Shanghai-based firm, is worth $30 billion除了这些大公司，还有上百家更小型的公司和数十家与外资相关的公司，一并涌入这个他们认为的发展劲头十足的市场。 That growth reflects the second great shift in government policy. Having previously dispensed with insurance as redundant in a socialist society, the new China has reversed course. The state is intimately involved in business and many aspects of life, but the provision of social insurance—for ill-health, accidents and old age—is either inadequate or non-existent. In the case of a disaster, help is unlikely to come from the courts or from government. That creates a staggeringly large gap for insurers. 这种发展势头反映出政府政策的第二大转变。之前中国一直将保险视为社会主义社会的多余之物，现在已不再这么想了。中国已与生命相关的行业和许多方面有了密切的关联，但社会保险方面的条款——比如健康不佳，意外和养老，是不完备的，甚至仍是空白。在遭受意外的情况下，受害者是接受不到来自法院或者政府的帮助的。这就为保险公司创造了一个巨大得惊人的缺口。 The most popular life-insurance products tend to be simple: pay a premium for 10-15 years and get a return, plus protection for your family in the case of death. They are useful for retirement, for a child’s education or for an emergency. As investment products, however, they are less attractive than they once were. Banks have recently had to raise reserves: that has created a hunger for deposits which has pushed up what they are willing to pay. It is now common to be offered 3% for a one-year bank deposit and 5.5% for a five-year one. Insurers are allowed to guarantee only a 2.5% return; policies linked to the stockmarket that dangle the promise of much higher returns have disappointed recently. 最受欢迎的寿险产品往往很简单：缴纳10至15年的保险费，便可以得到收益，还可额外在家人死亡时得到保障。保险费的本金和收益累积可用以退休、孩子的教育或者紧急事件。然而，就如投资产品，它们不如之前那么受追捧了。最近银行必须提高准备金：这催生了存款的需求，使得银行所愿意支付的数额上升。一年期的定存利率为3%，五年期的定存利率为5.5%，这是普遍现象了。而保险只允许保证2.5%的收益；与承诺更高收益的股市挂钩的保险产品最近让许多人都失望了。 That might hurt if enough customers moved in search of higher returns. But in China many people are only just becoming affluent enough to invest. There is lots of opportunity for agents with a product to flog. China Life has more than 700,000 agents working on its behalf; other firms have armies of salesmen, too. 如果足够多的客户想要转而寻找更高的收益，就会给该行业造成冲击。但在中国，许多人只都太富有了，所以要投资。而持有投资产品的机构则有大把机会兜售。中国人寿下属机构多达70万家；其他公司也配置了许多的销售人员。 As is often the case in China, foreign firms face huge barriers. With one exception, they are required to enter the country through joint ventures or to hold only tiny, direct stakes. The exception is AIA, which was recently spun out of AIG. Its erstwhile parent was quick to follow China Merchants in successfully pushing for a new licence based on its history, and managed to obtain approvals for five provinces. 在中国，外国公司面临很大的阻碍，这是常有的事。除了一个例外，其他的公司都被要求以合资公司的形式进入中国，或者拥有一小部分的直接股权。这个例外就是AIA，是最近从AIG中分离出来的。它的前任母公司迅速效仿了中国商会，根据中国商会的的历史奋力为自己争取了一个新的执照，并成功取得了在五个省份的经营许可。 AIA’s life-insurance operations have the largest market share of any foreign firm as a result, at a trivial-sounding 1%. Even that sliver still accounts for 8% of all its new business, notes Mark Kellock, an analyst with Barclays Capital. Up that share just a little and the impact on AIA would be vast. China’s insurance market may be daunting. Dull it is not. 因此，在众外国公司中，AIA的寿险经营在中国拥有最大的市场份额，虽微不足道但也算过得去的1%。巴克莱银行的Mark Kellock指出，尽管如此，这一小部分仍然占了其所有新业务的8%。若把这个份额再提高一点点，对AIA的影响也许是巨大的。中国的保险市场也许是望而生畏的。但绝不会是波澜无惊的。

引用 tudoushishei 2011-8-11 12:22

下面这句 读不出任何的逻辑关系啊
“分红只是股价中微不足道的部分而已，保险业的发展前景是奇妙的而非无趣的。”

引用 re.jet 2012-6-3 19:08

Concerns over questionable sales practices have prompted regulators to restrict banks’ distribution of life-insurance products, a channel that is responsible for about half of all life sales.
由于对备受争议的销售行为存有担忧，监管机构已限制寿险产品在各银行的销售，银行这个渠道承载了寿险的大约一半销售额。
——————
事实情况是银监会不再允许保险公司在银行（派员）驻点销售。这部分业务叫做“银邮险”，客户到银行去存钱，结果是买了保险。所以在后续保险保全理赔等（对应存款的取钱等）会有一部分问题，就争议了。政策出台后，银邮险还在销售，但展业方式确实改变了，这块的业绩都在下降。

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