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[2011.08.20] 中国的财务丑闻何时爆发

2011-8-22 07:55| 发布者: Somers| 查看: 8829| 评论: 32|原作者: romanyck

摘要: 中国的资本市场很少会因为丑闻而受到冲击,除非牵涉到政府

中国的财务丑闻

何时爆发


中国的资本市场很少会因为丑闻而受到冲击,除非牵涉到政府


Aug 20th 2011 | HONG KONG | from the print edition

近来,一批在中国境外上市的中国公司在遭到财务造假的指控后相继遭遇抛售而股价大跌,更甚者被摘牌退市,而这些中国公司的卖空者们则欢呼雀跃。譬如拿嘉汉林业,一家在加拿大上市的林业公司,在一家研究机构质疑其财务造假后,其股价从今年三月的每股25.3加元暴跌至六月的每股1.99加元。(嘉汉林业已公开表态否认这些指控,并许诺将聘请一独立委员会进行审阅)。

当一家公司遭遇财务欺诈的指控后,其股票必然会遭到抛售并随之股价暴跌,但也许中国例外。那些在中国公司的丑闻事件中起决定性影响的因素与其它大多数地方都不同。

最近,一份来自三位学者的研究报告*(译者注:注释请见文末)针对1997年至2005年期间发生的数百起在上海及深证两地证券交易所交易的上市公司丑闻事件进行了研究,结果出人意料。诸如美国及其他健全的资本市场财务舞弊、资金挪用或是商业贿赂等类似违规事件的曝光会立刻引发违规公司股价暴跌,丧失短期融资能力及管理层、董事会撤换等连锁反应,在中国并非对涉嫌公司的股价毫无影响,但是需要另一个必备条件:政府的牵连。

研究显示,对于仅仅陷入会计丑闻等破坏了市场经济契约的公司,在事件曝光前后6个月,即合计一年期间内,其股价平均下跌8.8%。(译者注:论文原文对这个比例的表述为cumulative abnormal stock returns,可理解为累积问题证券回报率,与本文的描述稍有出入,为了更靠近论文所表述观点,这里增加了一些描述)另一方面,对于那些牵涉到政府官员受贿,或是盗用国有资产等丑闻的破坏政府关系契约的事件,股价平均下跌近三分之一。

当然对于这些丑闻的曝光,股价下跌只是一方面。在西方国家,牵涉到政府的丑闻事件的曝光,同时会使违规公司陷入短期负债追讨及董事会成员变动等危机中。然后那些被揭露财务造假并破坏了市场经济契约的中国公司却很少会遭遇如此困境。

造成这一差别的原因在于,西方的市场经济是建立在法律监督下强制执行的契约之上,建立在以可靠财务信息为基础的,企业投资者,供应商,消费者等企业利益相关方的市场经济行为之上。相比之下,在中国及其他一些市场经济欠发达的国家,商业行为主要依靠政府及社会关系,而非市场经济下的契约。这使得丑闻影响中国公司的过程变的不同。

与政府保持良好的关系是至关重要的:与政府的亲密关系可以使企业享受到低成本的资金,土地,商业合同以及常常被忽视的(但显然非常危险)利益输送。因为中国没有公正的司法体系,中国企业在进行交易时,常常困惑于是否应该信任陌生的客户或者供应商。而司法的判决也许常常受到企业与政府官员关系的左右。如果类似的司法腐败,受政府丑闻所牵连,一同大白于天下,违规企业将无法继续正常经营。

不仅资本市场会有如此反应,政府官员同样如此。在中国,投资人及其他利益相关者成为会计造价等控诉的受害者时,惩罚力度仍然不足。然而一旦国家成为经济犯罪的受害者,惩罚将极为严厉。一个伪造假币的团伙在今年7月被判刑,其中主犯被判死刑。

长期以来,人们一直认为随着中国市场经济的不断发展,中国企业会更加西方化,在市场经济中运营,而不是依靠向政府寻租获取利益。现在这个设想也许需要重新审视了,不仅因为中国的大政府继续着对市场经济的干涉,并且一些西方的市场经济体开始向中国的体制靠近了。

譬如美国及英国政府,金融危机爆发后,他们成为了几家大型金融机构及工业企业的大股东(尽管是无奈之下的)。之前那片论文所提及的结论-新兴经济体中,与政府间的亲密关系,而不是公司的投资者,决定了公司的价值-也许也将适用于发达国家。


* “The Value of Relationship-based and Market-based Contracting: Evidence from Corporate Scandals in China”, by Mingyi Hung, T.J. Wong and Fang Zhang.

* “政府关系契约及市场经济契约下的公司价值:基于中国公司丑闻的实证研究”,Mingyi Hung,T.J. Wong 和Fang Zhang著(译者注:2011年5月)

from the print edition | Finance and Economics

 
感谢译者 romanyck 点击此处阅读双语版

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引用 romanyck 2011-8-21 10:48
第一次译文,问题一定很多,请各位看官不要手下留情,尽管丧心病狂的纠正
下面是所译文中引用的那片论文的节选,Google直接能搜到,把摘要贴了过来,对文中一些词的理解会有帮助
*************
Following it the abstract of the paper mentioned above, just for reference:

The Value of Relationship-based and Market-based Contracting: Evidence from Corporate Scandals in China
Abstract
This paper examines the economic consequences of corporate scandals in an emerging economy such as China where contracts are primarily conducted based on relationships rather than market mechanisms. The key feature of this study is that we categorize each corporate scandal by whether it damages a firm’s ability to conduct relationship-based contracting (relationship scandals), market-based contracting (market scandals), or both (mixed scandals). We find that the stock market reacts more negatively to relationship and mixed scandals than to market scandals. We also find that firms with greater reliance on political networks experience worse market reactions to the scandals. In addition, the worse market reaction is driven by the relationship and mixed scandals (but not the market scandals). Finally, consistent with the stock return results, we find that relationship and mixed scandals lead to greater turnover of directors and decreases in short-term financing than do market scandals.

引用 join_soon 2011-8-22 05:34
回复 romanyck 的帖子

Chinese financial scandals
中国的财务丑闻


When it matters
何时爆发


Markets in China are barely fazed by scandal, unless the state is involved
中国的资本市场很少会因为丑闻而受到冲击,除非牵涉到政府


Aug 20th 2011 | HONG KONG | from the print edition

SHORT-SELLERS have been feasting of late on a crop of Chinese companies whose shares have collapsed on foreign markets amid allegations of deceptive accounting. Take Sino Forest, a forestry firm listed in Canada, whose shares slumped from C$25.30 ($26) in March to as low as C$1.99 in June after a research outfit questioned its accounts (Sino Forest has denied the claims and has commissioned a review by an independent committee).

近来,一批在中国境外上市的中国公司在遭到财务造假的指控后相继遭遇抛售而股价大跌,更甚者被摘牌退市,而这些中国公司的卖空者们则欢呼雀跃。譬如拿嘉汉林业,一家在加拿大上市的林业公司,在一家研究机构质疑其财务造假后,其股价从今年三月的每股25.3加元暴跌至六月的每股1.99加元。(嘉汉林业已公开表态否认这些指控,并许诺将聘请一独立委员会进行审阅)。


A sharp fall in a company’s share price after allegations of deceptive accounting is hardly unexpected, except perhaps in China. What matters in a scandal there is a little different from in most other places.

当一家公司遭遇财务欺诈的指控后,其股票必然会遭到抛售并随之股价暴跌,但也许中国例外。那些在中国公司的丑闻事件中起决定性影响的因素与其它大多数地方都不同。


A recent study by three academics* looks at several hundred scandals linked to companies traded on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges between 1997 and 2005. Their results are striking. Revelations of financial fraud and various other similar crimes, such as embezzlement and kickbacks, are not entirely irrelevant to a company’s share price. But to trigger the sort of collapse in a company’s stock, the loss of short-term financing and the managerial and board changes that occur in America or other developed markets requires another element in China: the involvement of the state.

最近,一份来自三位学者的研究报告*(译者注:注释请见文末)针对1997年至2005年期间发生的数百起在上海及深证两地证券交易所交易的上市公司丑闻事件进行了研究,结果出人意料。诸如美国及其他健全的资本市场财务舞弊、资金挪用或是商业贿赂等类似违规事件的曝光会立刻引发违规公司股价暴跌,丧失短期融资能力及管理层、董事会撤换等连锁反应,在中国并非对涉嫌公司的股价毫无影响,但是需要另一个必备条件:政府的牵连。


The study found that companies caught up in mere accounting scandals saw their shares drop by an average of 8.8% over the six months on either side of the incident. In those involving the bribery of government officials or theft of state assets, on the other hand, the stock fell by almost a third.

研究显示,对于仅仅陷入会计丑闻等破坏了市场经济契约的公司,在事件曝光前后6个月,即合计一年期间内,其股价平均下跌8.8%。(译者注:论文原文对这个比例的表述为cumulative abnormal stock returns,可理解为累积问题证券回报率,与本文的描述稍有出入,为了更靠近论文所表述观点,这里增加了一些描述)另一方面,对于那些牵涉到政府官员受贿,或是盗用国有资产等丑闻的破坏政府关系契约的事件,股价平均下跌近三分之一。


Collapsing share prices tell only part of the story. Companies caught up in funny business involving the government faced a withdrawal of short-term financing and changes to the board—responses common in Western companies implicated in all sorts of scandal but rare among Chinese companies caught cooking the books.

当然对于这些丑闻的曝光,股价下跌只是一方面。在西方国家,牵涉到政府的丑闻事件的曝光,同时会使违规公司陷入短期负债追讨及董事会成员变动等危机中。然后那些被揭露财务造假并破坏了市场经济契约的中国公司却很少会遭遇如此困境。


The reason for the difference is that Western markets rely on contracts being enforced by courts and on investors, suppliers and customers all acting on the basis of audited accounts. In China and other less developed markets, by contrast, business is done on the basis of political and social relationships, not numbers. That changes the dynamic of a scandal.

造成这一差别的原因在于,西方的市场经济是建立在法律监督下强制执行的契约之上,建立在以可靠财务信息为基础的,企业投资者,供应商,消费者等企业利益相关方的市场经济行为之上。相比之下,在中国及其他一些市场经济欠发达的国家,商业行为主要依靠政府及社会关系,而非市场经济下的契约。这使得丑闻影响中国公司的过程变的不同。


Staying pals with the government is extraordinarily important: it can lead to cheap financing, land and contracts, along with one other often overlooked (but absolutely critical) benefit. Because China lacks an impartial judicial system, Chinese companies are often at a loss as to whom they can trust when dealing with new customers or suppliers. “Legal” redress for a problem may often hinge on a company’s relationship with officials. If that is compromised and the loss becomes public knowledge—as would happen with the disclosure of a government-related scandal—the company’s ability to operate will be undermined.

与政府保持良好的关系是至关重要的:与政府的亲密关系可以使企业享受到低成本的资金,土地,商业合同以及常常被忽视的(但显然非常危险利益输送。因为中国没有公正的司法体系,中国企业在进行交易时,常常困惑于是否应该信任陌生的客户或者供应商。而司法的判决也许常常受到企业与政府官员关系的左右。如果类似的司法腐败,受政府丑闻所牵连,一同大白于天下,违规企业将无法继续正常经营。


It is not just markets that behave this way: officials seem to as well. Reports of prosecutions in China over dodgy accounting in cases where investors or clients are victims remain scarce. But the penalties for financial crimes when the state is the victim can be extreme. A group of people found guilty of counterfeiting money were sentenced to death in July.

不仅资本市场会有如此反应,政府官员同样如此。在中国,投资人及其他利益相关者成为会计造价等控诉的受害者时,惩罚力度仍然不足。然而一旦国家成为经济犯罪的受害者,惩罚将极为严厉。一个伪造假币的团伙在今年7月被判刑,其中主犯被判死刑。


It has long been assumed that as China’s market evolved, it would come to look more like the West with the legitimacy of Chinese companies hinging on their own accounts rather than their ties to the government. That assumption may be worth re-examining, not only because China’s vast state apparatus shows little interest in shedding control but also because some Western markets are starting to look a bit more like China’s.

长期以来,人们一直认为随着中国市场经济的不断发展,中国企业会更加西方化,在市场经济中运营,而不是依靠向政府寻租获取利益。现在这个设想也许需要重新审视了,不仅因为中国的大政府继续着对市场经济的干涉,并且一些西方的市场经济体开始向中国的体制靠近了。


Since the financial crisis governments in America and Britain, to name but two, have become large shareholders (albeit reluctant ones) in financial and industrial companies. The conclusions of the academics’ paper—that the value of a company in developing markets is tied more tightly to its relationship with the government than its investors—may become the new normal elsewhere too.

譬如美国及英国政府,金融危机爆发后,他们成为了几家大型金融机构及工业企业的大股东(尽管是无奈之下的)。之前那论文所提及的结论-新兴经济体中,与政府间的亲密关系,而不是公司的投资者,决定了公司的价值-也许也将适用于发达国家。


* “The Value of Relationship-based and Market-based Contracting: Evidence from Corporate Scandals in China”, by Mingyi Hung, T.J. Wong and Fang Zhang.

* “政府关系契约及市场经济契约下的公司价值:基于中国公司丑闻的实证研究”,Mingyi Hung,T.J. Wong 和Fang Zhang著(译者注:2011年5月)
引用 ideaismoney 2011-8-22 08:39
引用 viviantting 2011-8-22 12:12
学习中
引用 tynn 2011-8-22 13:39
全文译得挺专业~
鸡蛋里挑个骨头:
一批在中国境外上市的中国公司在遭到财务造假的指控后相继遭遇抛售而股价大跌.......
-------------------------
原句中两个中国,感觉有点重复,不如把第一个去掉何如?
引用 gy.malawi 2011-8-22 16:35
也许楼主过多的参考了论文原文,所以与原文想必,多处译文是额外的内容。后几段似乎较之前几段译文有不及之处。
引用 romanyck 2011-8-22 19:44
回复 tynn 的帖子

是有些重复。。。已修改,谢谢啦
引用 romanyck 2011-8-22 19:47
回复 gy.malawi 的帖子

还好吧,为了明确一些词的意思,我大概看了看那篇论文,不过仅限于个别单词的扩展。我也不知道这样利弊怎样,不过我觉得作者是看过那篇论文才写出来,所以作者写出来不一定大家能非常理解。
以后会更加注意,谢谢!
引用 7colorwolf 2011-8-22 20:31
不错。
Sino Forest has denied the claims and has commissioned a review by an independent committee
嘉汉林业已否认这些指控,并委托了一个独立委员会。。。

but absolutely critical 但绝对很关键的
引用 romanyck 2011-8-22 20:37
回复 7colorwolf 的帖子

的确用关键比较合适,已改正,谢谢。
引用 romanyck 2011-8-22 20:53
回复 join_soon 的帖子

谢谢版主的指正,已尽所能得修改了红字部分。
引用 join_soon 2011-8-22 21:57
回复 romanyck 的帖子

你翻译得很不错,谢谢!
一般改动的部分要用蓝字体标出来,这样有利于复查,另外,这些地方往往是容易出问题的地方,用蓝字体别的同学也可以多注意。
引用 romanyck 2011-8-22 23:01
回复 join_soon 的帖子

恩,已把改动处标记蓝色。
引用 grassky 2011-8-23 08:13
请教一下,第一段最后一句  Sino Forest has denied the claims and has commissioned a review by an independent committee    中 commission a review  这个怎么翻译?而且用完成时态
引用 94566419 2011-8-23 10:53
CATTI翻译交流群 4067947 欢迎大家加入哦
引用 romanyck 2011-8-23 12:07
回复 grassky 的帖子

review by an independent committee是连着的,意思是:让一个独立的委员会审查,
所以has commissioned a review by an independent committee,意思是:已经委托/聘请一个独立的委员会去审查
事实上,这家公司聘请了四大会计师事务所之一的普华永道
引用 chittyqiqi 2011-8-23 16:43
请教A group of people found guilty of counterfeiting money were sentenced to death in July.
哪里有说“其中主犯被判死刑”?
引用 romanyck 2011-8-23 19:03
回复 chittyqiqi 的帖子

哦哦,这个是这样的,因为我读到这句话时第一反应是难道一群人全部死刑?不太可能吧?于是我网上搜了搜新闻,结果就是这样,主犯死刑,因此我觉得To Death的意思应该是最重的被判死刑。所以结果就这么翻译了。。。
除非是政府隐瞒了其他案件,那我也只能表示无能为力
引用 qyy1696 2011-8-23 19:31
我有个问题不清楚也不确定该在哪个板块提出:
如何阅读已经设置阅读权限的帖子,“50”,具体指的是什么?译文数量还是其他什么?

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