[2011.08.27] 卡特尔问题

引用 Byron2 2011-8-30 09:57

本帖最后由 xb3031 于 2011-8-30 15:12 编辑

Mexico’s economy
墨西哥的经济

The cartel problem
卡特尔问题

Mexico could be a giant if only it forced its moguls to compete
只要迫使墨西哥大人物竞争，墨西哥就是巨人

Aug 27th 2011 | from the print edition

A COUPLE of decades ago, when businesspeople and investors first got excited about the growth prospects of large emerging markets, Mexico was at the top of their lists. Nowadays it is the BRIC countries—Brazil, Russia, India and China—that have all the swagger, while Mexico commands attention for a sad reason: the surge of drug-fuelled violence that assails some of its cities. Mexican envy at the hoop-la surrounding Brazil, its Latin American rival, has reached a pitch to which only a psychoanalyst could do full justice.

二、三十年以前，当企业家和投资者对大型新兴市场的增长前景初感兴奋时，在他们的名单上墨西哥名列榜首。如今，金砖四国（巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国）全都神气活现，而墨西哥却是因一个可悲的原因而受到关注：毒品引燃的暴力事件激增，困扰着一些城市。墨西哥人嫉妒其拉美对手巴西充满了希望，已经达到了只有精神分析学家才可能完全公平对待的程度。

Look more closely, however, and Mexico has hidden strengths. Its people are richer than those of any of the BRICs except Russia. They are better educated than Brazilians. The economy is more industrialised, better managed and more business-friendly than Brazil’s. And although growth has not been spectacular over the past 15 years, it has been significant.

然而细加审视，墨西哥有着隐藏的优势。墨西哥人比俄罗斯之外任何一个“金砖四国”国家的人都要富有。他们比巴西人的教育程度更高。照比巴西，墨西哥经济的工业化程度更高，管理更好、营商更方便。虽然过去十五年来经济增长尚未达到惊人的地步，但一直十分显著。

For reasons of geography Mexico’s fate is ineluctably intertwined with that of the United States. This now looks less of an advantage than it once did (and not just because it is Americans who arm and finance the Mexican drug gangs). In 2009 Mexico’s was hit worse than any other big economy in the Americas by the recession in the United States. Renewed weakness north of the border this month has prompted economists to slash their forecasts for Mexico as well.

因为地理因素，墨西哥的命运不可避免地与美国的命运交织在一起。现在看起来优势不比过去（不仅因为美国人武装并资助墨西哥的贩毒团伙）。受美国经济衰退的冲击，2009年墨西哥的经济比美洲其它任何一个大型经济体都糟。本月北部边境的再次疲软也促使经济学家们减低了他们对墨西哥的预测。

But Mexico is not condemned to suffer contagion. A decade ago its exporters were losing ground to China. Now Chinese wages are rising sharply, and Mexico’s market share north of the border is growing again. Despite the violence, foreign investment is pouring in, especially to the motor industry. And more of those cars and other products can be bought at home: whereas Brazil’s credit market looks overheated, there is plenty of scope for loan growth in Mexico.

但墨西哥并非注定要遭受衰退的蔓延。十年前，面对中国的进攻墨西哥出口商节节败退。现在，中国的工资急剧上涨，而墨西哥边境北部的市场份额又开始增长。尽管有暴力存在，但外商投资还是大量涌进，特别是对汽车业的投资。外商投资的车辆和其它产品更多程度上都能在国内买到：鉴于巴西的信贷市场看起来过热，墨西哥有大量机会增长贷款。

Above all, it is within Mexico’s own power to do better. Its economy has long been held back by monopolies and cartels—of legal businesses, not drug traffickers (see article). Costliest of all is the state monopoly over oil. Even as Brazil’s oil industry—state-dominated, but open to foreign investment—is surging, Mexico’s is retreating. Then there is the telecoms business: thanks to a private near-monopoly, owned by Carlos Slim, the world’s richest man, Mexicans pay between four and ten times as much to be connected than do people in developed countries. Restrictive practices drive up the price of much else, from medicines to air fares.

最重要的是，做得更好是墨西哥力所能及的。墨西哥的经济长期以来靠垄断企业和卡特尔支撑，是合法的企业，而不是毒贩。所有形式中价值最高的是国家对石油的垄断。即使在巴西石油行业（国家占主导地位，但也对外资开放）风起云涌之时，墨西哥的石油行业也一直在后退。再有就是电信业务：由于近乎私人垄断，为世界首富卡洛斯•斯利姆所拥有，墨西哥人要支付发达国家的人所支付的四到十倍的价钱才能接通。限制性做法带涨了很多其它东西的价格，范围从药品到机票都有。

Ignore the vested interests, court the voters
无视既得利益，媚惑选民

The government of Felipe Calderón, president since 2006, has taken some timid steps to make the state energy monopolies less inefficient, and has applied the odd pinprick to Mr Slim. But bolder action—especially allowing in more foreign investment—would secure a big reward: opening up oil and reforming labour markets and competition law could raise the rate of growth by up to 2.5 percentage points, according to one estimate. So why hasn’t it happened? The oil monopoly is a nationalist totem, but its only beneficiaries now are the oil workers’ union and favoured suppliers. It dates to the days of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, which ruled Mexico for seven decades mainly on the basis of cosy deals with monopolists. These have proved hard to unpick, partly because no president has had a majority in Congress since 1997.

自2006年以来，总统菲利普•卡尔德龙的政府采取了一些胆小的措施，以使国家能源垄断企业少些低效行为，并不时刺一下斯利姆。而更大胆的行动（特别是允许更多的外国投资）将获得一份大回报：据一项估计表明，开放石油、改革劳动力市场和竞争法能把经济增长率提高多达2.5个百分点。那么，这为什么没有发生呢？石油垄断是国家主义的图腾，但现在垄断的唯一受益者是石油工人工会和受青睐的供应商。这要追溯到革命制度党时代，革命制度党统治墨西哥长达七十年之久，统治主要建立在与垄断者亲密无间交易的基础上。经证明这些都难以革除，部分原因在于自1997年以来没有一个总统在议会中占有多数席位。

The price of political deadlock is rising. A failure to raise extra taxes hobbles efforts to bolster security. Lack of reform risks condemning Mexico to stagnate with America. As politicians start campaigning for next year’s presidential election, they should ignore the business lobbyists. Reform would benefit voters; they can surely be persuaded to back it.

政治僵局的代价在增加。未能筹集额外的税收阻碍了加强安全的努力。缺乏改革让墨西哥注定要承受与美国一起萧条的风险。随着政治人物开始备战明年的总统大选，他们可能会无视商业陈情者。改革将有利于选民，他们一定能够被说服支持改革。

from the print edition | Leaders

引用 cocaine1711 2011-8-30 11:45

拜读了

引用 xzh1991 2011-8-31 12:35

“Renewed weakness north of the border this month has prompted economists to slash their forecasts for Mexico as well”中“north of the border”应该是美国的代指吧，翻译成墨西哥北部边境有些指代不明。

楼主参考！

引用 babylisa 2011-9-1 14:48

and not just because it is Americans who arm and finance the Mexican drug gangs
感觉其中arm不能直接翻为武装，应该是为谁提供武器装备。

引用 xb3031 2011-9-1 14:52

A COUPLE of decades ago, when businesspeople and investors first got excited about the growth prospects of large emerging markets, Mexico was at the top of their lists. Nowadays it is the BRIC countries—Brazil, Russia, India and China—that have all the swagger, while Mexico commands attention for a sad reason: the surge of drug-fuelled violence that assails some of its cities.
二、三十年以前，当企业家和投资者对大型新兴市场的增长前景初感兴奋时，在他们的名单上墨西哥名列榜首【墨西哥最受他们的青睐】。如今，金砖四国（巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国）全都神气活现，而墨西哥赢得注意原因可悲：毒品引燃【引发】的暴力事件激增

建议楼主再润色~~

引用 xb3031 2011-9-1 14:57

Renewed weakness north of the border this month has prompted economists to slash their forecasts for Mexico as well.
本月边境北部的美国再次疲软也促使经济学家们减低了他们对墨西哥的预测
“减低.......预测”不符合中文的表达习惯，此处为墨西哥的经济方面，应该补充出来“对经济的预测”

引用 xb3031 2011-9-1 15:03

本帖最后由 xb3031 于 2011-9-1 15:04 编辑

And more of those cars and other products can be bought at home: whereas Brazil’s credit market looks overheated, there is plenty of scope for loan growth in Mexico.

外商投资的车辆和其它产品更多程度上都能在国内买到：鉴于巴西的信贷市场看起来过热，墨西哥有大量机会增长贷款。

这里是数量上的多，而不是程度~~

试译：墨西哥国内可以买到更多外商投资生产的汽车和其他商品，鉴于巴西的信贷市场看起来过热，墨西哥的贷款规模还有很大的增长空间。

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