[2012.03.17]股票与市场准则

引用 morebluer 2012-3-20 18:44

凶杀现场、米格机叛逃、将军离职，呵呵，凯奇的口味比较重啊

引用 swufe200011 2012-3-20 21:44

本帖最后由 swufe200011 于 2012-3-20 23:33 编辑

呵呵，所以现在换些清淡的。暂时多关注财经类的文章，谢谢楼上支持！

引用 suede 2012-3-21 22:26

我有一个问题，第一段当中Holding cash or government bonds may offer safety in the short term but leaves the investor at risk from inflation over longer periods.这里面的那个leaves the investor at risk from inflation，就直接解释为让投资者面临通胀风险吗。。这里的from 会不会有什么意义啊，有没有可能不是这个意思呢，，对这个不了解，单纯求解。多谢~~

引用 zzdbc 2012-3-22 10:09

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就是risk from inflation，通货膨胀的风险。 government bonds的实际收益率=名义收益率-通货膨胀率。简单来说如果实际收益率是负的说明投资者投资政府债券的钱还没跑赢通胀，所以钱越来越少了。。。这种就是risk from inflation

引用 swufe200011 2012-3-22 16:58

楼上正解!

引用 suede 2012-3-22 22:14

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多谢~~

引用 suede 2012-3-23 21:33

请问，That has left many corporate and public pension funds in deficit and many people with private pensions facing a delayed, or poorer, retirement. 最后的a delayed, or poorer, retirement可不可以理解为delayed retirement 或者是poorer retirement啊？？

引用 swufe200011 2012-3-25 10:56

To Suede:
That has left many corporate and public pension funds in deficit and many people with private pensions facing a delayed, or poorer, retirement.
此句的译文为:这样就让许多企业和公共养老基金形成赤字，私人养老保险单位也开始延迟或减少发放退休金。最后的a delayed, or poorer, retirement是指养老金的延迟或者减少发放.

引用 东方笛声 2012-3-25 19:00

补充：survivalship bias
幸存者偏差：二次世界大战时，美英联军对德国展开了战略大轰炸。由于德国防空力量强大，美英空军损失惨重，国防部找来飞机专家，要求研究战斗机受损情况，对飞机进行改进。专家们检查了执行任务归来的飞机，发现所有飞机的机腹都伤痕累累，于是专家们建议，机腹非常容易受到防空炮火攻击，应该加强机腹的防护。最后国防部的改进要求却是，改进和加强对机翼的防护。因为国防部的一个统计学家发现，能够幸运返航的飞机，机翼都完好无损，这说明，被击中机翼的飞机都坠落了，而仅仅被击中机腹的飞机都返航了，应该加强防护的是机翼，而不是机腹。统计学里将这类因结果导致错误认知的情况，称为“幸存者偏差”。

引用 swufe200011 2012-3-25 21:06

谢谢东方笛声的补充！

引用 suede 2012-3-27 21:13

There are a number of possible explanations for these very high ex post returns. One is survivorship bias in the numbers. America, which is the benchmark for ERP measurements, turned out to be the most successful economy of the 20th century, but it might not have been. Before the first world war investors doubtless had high hopes for Argentina, China or Russia—only to be disappointed.请问，这里面的一句but it might not have been.可不可以理解为投资者原来并不看好美国，美国本不会这么成功啊~~还有，survivorship bias in the numbers 是不是对于数字的认知偏差啊~~多谢！

引用 suede 2012-3-27 21:14

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多谢指教~~

引用 swufe200011 2012-3-28 10:50

To Suede,
One is survivorship bias in the numbers. America, which is the benchmark for ERP measurements, turned out to be the most successful economy of the 20th century, but it might not have been.
1.对于survivorship bias in the numbers,请见10楼东方笛声所作的补充.
2. America, which is the benchmark for ERP measurements, turned out to be the most successful economy of the 20th century, but it might not have been.
原意为:作为股票风险溢价测量标准的美国,被看作是20世纪最成功的经济体,但这一切已经不复存在.but it might not have been是对turned out to be the most successful economy of the 20th century的一种补充说明.即美国在过去很辉煌,但现在情况却不是如此了.But带有转折意义.

翻译总是要结合上下文的意思来进行概括和整理.

引用 swufe200011 2012-3-28 10:57

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呵呵,看来你很喜欢此类文章哈,把它反复精读.

引用 suede 2012-3-29 19:52

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嗯嗯，我就是有时候会一下子反应不过来~

引用 Reshaley 2012-3-30 14:01

”且许多私募养老金面临要么延期发放,要么发得更少,要么退休的境地“ 似乎不对吧？
应该是说：许多人的年金受影响，不得不推迟退休的时间，或者过更贫穷的退休生活吧？

引用 juanerlll 2012-3-30 14:55

受益

引用 swufe200011 2012-3-30 20:49

To Reshaley:

In the developed world, the period since the turn of the millennium has been a particular disappointment. Since the end of 1999 the return on American equities has been 7.6 percentage points a year lower than that on government bonds (see chart 1). That has left many corporate and public pension funds in deficit and many people with private pensions facing a delayed, or poorer, retirement. Understanding why equities have let investors down over the past decade will help them work out what to expect in the future.

在发达国家,自进入千禧年以来，股市令人特别失望.自从1999年年末起,美国股票回报为7.6个百分点,低于政府债券的回报.这导致许多企业和公共养老基金出现赤字而且许多私募养老金也开始拖延或者减少发放退休金.理解为什么股票在过去的十年间让投资者失望将有助于他们认识到对未来股市的期望是什么.

这样译也许更通顺哈!

引用 suede 2012-4-10 21:27

请问，Since the yield is low, relative to history, it is more likely that any revaluation will subtract from returns. 这句话里面，it is more likely that any revaluation will subtract from returns，这句话的翻译是任何重新评估的推动力很可能从收益中剔除，这里面的逻辑我不是很了解，怎么就出现了推动力了呢，是什么从收益中剔除呢，搞不清楚诶。求教～～

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