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[2010.11.25]应对朝鲜:朝鲜问题怎么解决?

2010-12-3 22:43| 发布者: jerrywhitt| 查看: 3234| 评论: 1|原作者: zhanyisky

摘要: 唯一途径是说服中国,遏制金氏政权符合其自身利益
应对朝鲜
朝鲜问题怎么解决?
唯一途径是说服中国,遏制金氏政权符合其自身利益
英国《经济学人》杂志 2010年11月25日文章
 


难得有统治集团似乎在替布什任期内倡导的“先发制人”主义辩护,这便是朝鲜的金氏王朝。在其治下,老百姓成天胆战心惊,倍受压迫、食不果腹,无论哪国政府,都不会让其国民遭受如此野蛮残忍的统治。而金氏政权也与一连串国际暴行脱不了干系,范围涉及恐怖主义恶行、核扩散、毒品走私及伪造货币。现任独裁者金正日,显见行将就木,似乎正力推其年方27的儿子上位,将王位继承者塑造成不可战胜的勇士。而老金自个就是太子,上世纪八十年代,他靠实施国际恐怖主义证明了自己。

本周,朝鲜向邻近朝韩争议海域的韩国小岛开炮,导致两名士兵及两位平民丧生,多人受伤,二十余座房屋起火,今年第二次与韩国交火。今年3月,朝鲜鱼雷击沉了韩国军舰天安号,46人殒命。尽管难以置信,但朝鲜仍否认有罪。这一次,虽然朝鲜将其侵略行径,描述为针对韩国一场毫无恶意军演的报复,却并未否认对这起1953年韩战结束以来最严重的事件负责。令人担忧的事还不止于此,就在最近这次攻击发生仅三天前,有消息披露,朝鲜无视国际社会为遏制其核计划所付出的努力,已开发出一套铀浓缩精密设施,而这套设施将为核弹制造材料提供更高级的潜在能源。

别还击
从最根本意义上讲,回应朝鲜侵略的出发点无疑在于,金氏政权几乎肯定只会受到一次象征性的火力还击,逃脱惩罚。朝鲜的所作所为的确大错特错。但针对朝鲜的惩罚性军事报复,会冒冲突升级以致爆发灾难性战争的危险。和平时期,金氏政权也会让朝鲜老百姓饱受饥荒折磨,失去人身自由,还乐此不疲,对这样一个独裁者动用武力威慑,效果不佳。即便世人质疑朝鲜小型核军火库的功效,但其手中仍握有充足兵力,以及相当数量射程可达首尔(距韩朝边界仅35英里,即60公里)的常规武器,这令战争看起来,更像是不得以的最后一招。

要是战争与战争威慑两种选择,效果几乎相同,那么世界能做什么?走出困境的最佳方式,是弥合各国关于如何处置朝鲜的分歧。这意味着,尤其得让中国明白,其长期以来视为战略资产的这个危险之地,已变成了可怕的阻碍。中国同样极力要控制住朝鲜。但各国建立起一条联合阵线,可能会让助长这个流氓政府恶行的环境有所改变。

中国无法对金氏政权的无能笨拙与好勇斗狠视而不见,也不欢迎其怀有核野心。但中国自身也有两个更为深重的担忧。其中一个,是朝鲜半岛战火重燃,这会危及中国。另一个,则是金氏政权垮台,数以百万绝望至极的难民将涌入中韩,导致美国军队开至中国边界。正是由于将金氏政权作为一种对抗这种“不稳定性”的堡垒,中国才纵容它。甚至对天安号沉没事件,中国也拒绝谴责金氏政权,而本周炮击事件发生后,它也只是发表了语气温和不偏不倚的声明,呼吁朝韩双方保持克制。显然,中国认为,要是作为朝鲜唯一盟友的它,也弃朝而去,那么金氏政权今后,将很可能干出一些极为鲁莽的事。

但金氏政权已这样干了。无论中国公开说什么,它肯定明白,金氏政权已将战争作为一个外交工具玩弄于鼓掌,也明白其想要震动世界、迫使大伙同其谈判的渴望,这种渴望会引发更大的暴行。最终,这种行为方式,会威胁中国极力渴求的稳定局面。因此,中国同朝鲜结盟,不仅会破坏其作为全球力量的形象,也会损害其自身利益。

那么如何推动中国迈向正确的方向?一种可能是,重启由中国主持、日俄参与的六方会谈。这一会谈在朝鲜加速推进其核计划后,陷入停顿。金氏政权或许会将会谈重启视为一种胜利。但若要靠谈判来遏制朝鲜的核野心,六方会谈最终将不得不重启。倘若会谈也有助于说服中国遏制朝鲜,亦未尝不是一种双赢。

本文由译者 zhanyisky 提供 点击此处阅读双语版

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引用 zhanyisky 2010-11-30 12:52
Wikileaks cables reveal China 'ready to abandon North Korea'
Leaked dispatches show Beijing is frustrated with military actions of 'spoiled child' and increasingly favours reunified Korea

China  has signalled its readiness to accept Korean reunification and is privately distancing itself from the North Korean regime, according to leaked US embassy cables that reveal senior Beijing figures regard their official ally as a "spoiled child".

News of the Chinese shift comes at a crucial juncture after the North's artillery bombardment of a South Korean island last week that killed four people and led both sides to threaten war. China has refused to condemn the North Korean action. But today Beijing appeared to bow to US pressure to help bring about a diplomatic solution, calling for "emergency consultations" and inviting a senior North Korean official to Beijing.

China is sharply critical of US pressure tactics towards North Korea and wants a resumption of the six-party nuclear disarmament talks. But the Guardian can reveal Beijing's frustration with Pyongyang has grown since its missile and nuclear tests last year, worries about the economic impact of regional instability, and fears that the death of the dictator, Kim Jong-il, could spark a succession struggle.

China's moves to distance itself from Kim are revealed in the latest tranche of leaked US embassy cables published by the Guardian and four international newspapers. Tonight, the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, said the US "deeply regrets" the release of the material by WikiLeaks. They were an "attack on the international community", she said. "It puts people's lives in danger, threatens our national security and undermines efforts to work with other countries to solve shared problems," she told reporters at the state department.

The leaked North Korea dispatches detail how:

• South Korea's vice-foreign minister said he was told by two named senior Chinese officials that they believed Korea should be reunified under Seoul's control, and that this view was gaining ground with the leadership in Beijing.

• China's vice-foreign minister told US officials that Pyongyang was behaving like a "spoiled child" to get Washington's attention in April 2009 by carrying out missile tests.

• A Chinese ambassador warned that North Korean nuclear activity was "a threat to the whole world's security".

• Chinese officials assessed that it could cope with an influx of 300,000 North Koreans in the event of serious instability, according to a representative of an international agency, but might need to use the military to seal the border.

In highly sensitive discussions in February this year, the-then South Korean vice-foreign minister, Chun Yung-woo, told a US ambassador, Kathleen Stephens, that younger generation Chinese Communist party leaders no longer regarded North Korea as a useful or reliable ally and would not risk renewed armed conflict on the peninsula, according to a secret cable to Washington.

Chun, who has since been appointed national security adviser to South Korea's president, said North Korea had already collapsed economically.

Political collapse would ensue once Kim Jong-il died, despite the dictator's efforts to obtain Chinese help and to secure the succession for his son, Kim Jong-un.

"Citing private conversations during previous sessions of the six-party talks , Chun claimed [the two high-level officials] believed Korea should be unified under ROK [South Korea] control," Stephens reported.

"The two officials, Chun said, were ready to 'face the new reality' that the DPRK [North Korea] now had little value to China as a buffer state – a view that, since North Korea's first nuclear test in 2006, had reportedly gained traction among senior PRC [People's Republic of China] leaders. Chun argued that in the event of a North Korean collapse, China would clearly 'not welcome' any US military presence north of the DMZ [demilitarised zone]. Again citing his conversations with [the officials], Chun said the PRC would be comfortable with a reunified Korea controlled by Seoul and anchored to the US in a 'benign alliance' – as long as Korea was not hostile towards China. Tremendous trade and labour-export opportunities for Chinese companies, Chun said, would also help 'salve' PRC concerns about … a reunified Korea.

"Chun dismissed the prospect of a possible PRC military intervention in the event of a DPRK collapse, noting that China's strategic economic interests now lie with the United States, Japan and South Korea – not North Korea."

Chun told Stephens China was unable to persuade Pyongyang to change its self-defeating policies – Beijing had "much less influence than most people believe" – and lacked the will to enforce its views.

A senior Chinese official, speaking off the record, also said China's influence with the North was frequently overestimated. But Chinese public opinion was increasingly critical of the North's behaviour, the official said, and that was reflected in changed government thinking.

Previously hidden tensions between Pyongyang and its only ally were also exposed by China's then vice-foreign minister in a meeting in April 2009 with a US embassy official after North Korea blasted a three-stage rocket over Japan into the Pacific. Pyongyang said its purpose was to send a satellite into orbit but the US, South Korea and Japan saw the launch as a test of long-range missile technology.

Discussing how to tackle the issue with the charge d'affaires at the Beijing embassy, He Yafei observed that "North Korea wanted to engage directly with the United States and was therefore acting like a 'spoiled child' in order to get the attention of the 'adult'. China encouraged the United States, 'after some time', to start to re-engage the DPRK," according to the diplomatic cable sent to Washington.

A second dispatch from September last year described He downplaying the Chinese premier's trip to Pyongyang, telling the US deputy secretary of state, James Steinberg: "We may not like them ... [but] they [the DPRK] are a neighbour."

He said the premier, Wen Jiabao, would push for denuclearisation and a return to the six-party talks. The official also complained that North Korea "often tried to play China off [against] the United States, refusing to convey information about US-DPRK bilateral conversations".

Further evidence of China's increasing dismay with Pyongyang comes in a cable in June 2009 from the US ambassador to Kazakhstan, Richard Hoagland. He reported that his Chinese counterpart, Cheng Guoping. was "genuinely concerned by North Korea's recent nuclear missile tests. 'We need to solve this problem. It is very troublesome,' he said, calling Korea's nuclear activity a 'threat to the whole world's security'."

Cheng said Beijing "hopes for peaceful reunification in the long term, but he expects the two countries to remain separate in the short term", Hoagland reported. China's objectives were "to ensure they [North Korean leaders] honour their commitments on non-proliferation, maintain stability, and 'don't drive [Kim Jong-il] mad'."

While some Chinese officials are reported to have dismissed suggestions that North Korea would implode after Kim's death, another cable offers evidence that Beijing has considered the risk of instability.

It quoted a representative from an international agency saying Chinese officials believed they could absorb 300,000 North Koreans without outside help. If they arrived "all at once" it might use the military to seal the border, create a holding area and meet humanitarian needs. It might also ask other countries for help.

The context of the discussions was not made explicit, although an influx of that scale would only be likely in the event of regime failure. The representative said he was not aware of any contingency planning to deal with large numbers of refugees.

A Seoul embassy cable from January 2009 said China's leader, Hu Jintao, deliberately ducked the issue when the South Korean president, Lee Myung-bak, raised it at a summit.

"We understand Lee asked Hu what China thought about the North Korean domestic political situation and whether Beijing had any contingency plans. This time, Hu apparently pretended not to hear Lee," it said. The cable does not indicate the source of the reports, although elsewhere it talks about contacts at the presidential "blue house" in South Korea.

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