[2013.04.13] 通货膨胀的终结

引用 坏娃娃 2013-4-14 21:43

@Dezazer @nayilus @零下1℃ @深巷花 @yannanchen @悠悠万事97 @西米 @敛刃 @悠悠万事97 敬请斧正，谢谢指点。

引用 discomize 2013-4-15 00:22

If prices are not expected to drop, workers are less likely to accept wage cuts.
如果商品价格预期会降低，那么劳动者就不太可能会接受薪资的削减。
如果不认为商品的预期价格会降低，劳动者就不太可能同意接受减薪。

引用 坏娃娃 2013-4-15 10:55

discomize 发表于 2013-4-15 00:22
If prices are not expected to drop, workers are less likely to accept wage cuts.
如果商品价格预期会 ...

太感谢了。这个错误有些严重了，一字之差，意思全变了。

引用 yannanchen 2013-4-16 04:00

本帖最后由 yannanchen 于 2013-4-16 04:06 编辑

When central banks whipped inflation in the early 1980s and adopted low targets for it, they firmly anchored beliefs about future growth in prices and wages.This credibility is self-reinforcing.

they = low targets
this  credibility = beliefs

低目标通膨值把人们对价格和工资的未来增长率的（低）期望也牢牢地固定住。

引用 yannanchen 2013-4-16 04:15

though the dispersion in expected inflation rates seems to have widened lately

dispersion 是离散度， 不是离散值。

引用 yannanchen 2013-4-16 04:26

As inflation has become more anchored, its links with other economic indicators have weakened. In a study of 21 rich countries since the 1960s, the IMF shows that changes in unemployment now influence inflation much less than in the past (see right-hand chart). Without the breakdown in this relationship, America’s economy would have faced deflation rates approaching 3% in the wake of the recent recession, the IMF notes. 原译：随着通货膨胀率变得愈来愈稳固，这一指标与其它经济指标之间的联系也愈来愈弱。国际货币基金组织研究了自上世纪60年代以来21个发达国家的经济状况，该研究表明：就目前而言，失业率的变动对通货膨胀率的影响远不如从前（见右表）。国际货币基金组织强调若是其间的关联性保持不变，那么美国经济在最近一次经济衰退之初的通货紧缩率将会接近3%的水平。

评论：随着通膨率变得愈来愈固定（见前they firmly anchored beliefs about future growth in prices and wages.），这一指标与其它经济指标之间的联系就愈来愈弱了。国际货币基金组织研究了自上世纪60年代以来21个发达国家的经济状况。该研究表明：失业率的变动对通膨率的影响现在远不如从前（见右表）。国际货币基金组织说，设若这两者之间的关联（一如往昔）未曾失效， 那么美国的经济紧随最近这次经济衰退， 本会出现通缩率接近3%的水平。

引用 yannanchen 2013-4-16 04:41

What could cause inflation expectations to break free again, as in the 1970s?

break free from what?
what = anchored belief = central banks' commitment to target inflation at low level

引用 yannanchen 2013-4-16 05:02

本帖最后由 yannanchen 于 2013-4-16 05:03 编辑

More worryingly, the weakening link between inflation and unemployment could breed complacency about rising joblessness. Central bankers weaned on tales from the 1930s and 1980s, when soaring unemployment produced tumbling inflation, may have underestimated recent economic troubles because of stable inflation. An outbreak of deflation might have prompted them to act sooner and even more resolutely to battle the recession. Central banks are victims of their own success. With inflation no longer a reliable indicator of demand, they must look elsewhere to keep economies from running hot or cold. 原译：更令人担忧的是，通货膨胀率和失业率之间日益脆弱的关联性可能会令人对不断上升的失业率毫无警觉，进而无动于衷。当不断上升的失业率导致通货膨胀率不断波动的时候，对上世纪30年和80年发生的一切熟稔于胸各国央行高管们或许因为稳定的通货膨胀率而低估了近来出现的经济问题。突然爆发的通货紧缩或许会促使他们迅速行动，甚至会迫使他们拿出最具成效的解决之法来应对经济衰退。央行为其成功所累。由于通货膨涨率不再是一个可靠的需求反映指标，各国央行必须另寻它途来防止经济运行过热或是过冷。


评论：更令人担忧的是，通膨率和失业率之间日益脆弱的关联性可能会令人对不断上升的失业率无动于衷。各国央行高管们都对于上世纪30年代以及80年代发生的高失业率引起通膨率急跌的故事耳熟能详，（Central bankers weaned on tales from the 1930s and 1980s, when soaring unemployment produced tumbling inflation， 其中when – clause 是 1930s and 1980s 的定语从句）所以就有可能因通膨率稳定而已经低估了目前的经济问题。 反之， 如果通缩能突然爆发，兴许就已促使他们早早行动， 更坚决地抵抗经济衰退。央行乃为其成功所害。由于通膨率不再是一个可靠的反映需求的指标，各国央行必须另找别的指标为信号，来防止经济过热或过冷。

引用 马话青 2013-4-16 08:13

谢谢啦，这篇文章很吸引人

引用 小月芽 2013-4-16 08:35

mark...

引用 lily_scent 2013-4-16 09:05

followed suit.
是不是“效仿”的意思？不是“紧随其后”吧？

这句是“美国财长。。效仿其策。”

引用 姜蹄蹄 2013-4-16 12:54

workers are less likely to accept wage cuts 那么劳动者就不太可能会接受薪资的削减

是不可以这样译

那么劳动者就不太可能接受薪资减少的事实

引用 jasper 2013-4-16 16:54

Contrasting the experience of the American and German economies, the IMF reckons that central-bank independence makes all the difference.感觉其中的difference没译出来

引用 jasper 2013-4-16 17:09

The economic stability of the pre-crisis era may have fuelled the excess borrowing that led to the financial crisis.这句译的怪怪的，不简洁。

引用 yowychen 2013-4-17 15:29

很有文采。

引用 坏娃娃 2013-4-17 21:44

yannanchen 发表于 2013-4-16 04:00
When central banks whipped inflation in the early 1980s and adopted low targets for it, they firmly  ...

谢谢陈老师指点，这里我确实没有理解到位。

引用 坏娃娃 2013-4-17 21:46

yannanchen 发表于 2013-4-16 04:26
As inflation has become more anchored, its links with other economic indicators have weakened. In a  ...

陈老师说的对，我还加强对虚拟语气的掌握，以便加深理解，才能翻译的更准确。

引用 坏娃娃 2013-4-17 21:46

yannanchen 发表于 2013-4-16 05:02
More worryingly, the weakening link between inflation and unemployment could breed complacency about ...

妙极，谢谢啦。

引用 坏娃娃 2013-4-17 21:47

yannanchen 发表于 2013-4-16 04:15
though the dispersion in expected inflation rates seems to have widened lately

dispersion 是离散度 ...

改过来了，还是要去看看经济学方面的书才行啊。

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