[2010.12.04]经济聚焦：投票换来痛苦

引用 hielton 2010-12-8 12:57

本帖最后由 hielton 于 2010-12-8 15:29 编辑

“The empirical evidence on this point”, the economists write, “is much less clear cut than the conviction with which this conventional wisdom is held.”
经济学家们写道：“没有多少明显的历史经验支持人们这种传统的坚定的看法”

The authors study 19 rich countries over the 33 years between 1975 and 2008, identifying instances in which governments cut the primary deficit (ie, before debt service), adjusted for the stage of the economic cycle, by at least 1.5% of GDP.
书的作者们还列出了19个富裕国家在1975年至2008年的33年间一些这样的案例：政府削减原发性赤字（即偿还债息前的赤字）的幅度不低于GDP的1.5%，以便应对经济周期循环。

If it is not political madness to try to balance the books, what is the best way to do it? 平衡财政预算，如果不靠疯狂的政治手段，那么最好的办法在哪呢？

One worry about interpreting these results is, however, that politically secure governments may be precisely the ones implementing such tough policies. But the economists were at least able also to assess the records of coalition governments, which might be assumed, by and large, to be in a weaker initial position than single-party governments.
然而，对研究结果的解读会让人产生这么个忧虑：或许只有政治稳固的政府才可以实行如此严厉的财政政策。但是经济学家们至少也可以考察一下联合政府。人们总体上有这么个看法：联合政府初期的地位也许不如一党把持的政府牢靠。

Yet that in turn raises another question: why are politicians still so nervous about balancing the books? The authors suggest that a failure to tackle budget problems is far likelier when governments are beholden to interest groups, such as industries that benefit from tax breaks, or homeowners, or those on pensions, rather than the voting public at large. Confronting them, rather than the entire electorate, may be the really difficult task for governments that want to make the numbers add up.
然而，那又产生了新问题：一提到平衡财政预算，政客们就紧张起来，何故？作者们认为，比起广大选民，政府更有可能受某些利益团体的羁绊，如从减税政策中受益的各个行业，私房屋主们，以及那些按月领取养老金的人。要与这些团体叫板，困难不小，因为政府还指望从这些人身上获得更多的选票。

引用 hielton 2010-12-8 15:29

百年紫藤 发表于 2010-12-4 21:23
Vote for agony
投票换来痛苦
Cutting public spending and raising taxes may not be as politically su ...

兄台的最后一段，乍一看还以为是机器翻译的

引用 daimon 2010-12-8 16:04

和他们冲突，而不是整个全体选民，或许对增加投自己选票数的政府来说确实是辣手的任务。

怎么个辣法，有多辣？

引用 百年紫藤 2010-12-8 19:27

回复 daimon 的帖子

对不起，应该是棘手的任务，以前一直以为念辣手那，见笑了。。。。

引用 百年紫藤 2010-12-8 19:29

谢谢hielton和daimon的指正，感激。。。。。

引用 hielton 2010-12-8 20:07

辣手  是上海话

引用 hanqingyaonan 2010-12-29 20:01

The results of the paper suggest that cash-strapped governments ought not to worry about losing office as much as received wisdom might have it.中as much as received wisdom might have it是个倒装句，（因为）差不多同时政府可以收到（能拯救它们的）智慧，wisdom没想好翻译。If it is not political madness to try to balance the books, what is the best way to do it?   balance the books应该是平衡（支大于收的赤字）账簿，what is the best way  to do it指  什么是平衡收支不均的最好的方法？

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