[2011.03.17] 市场余震

引用 Harry1028 2011-3-19 06:10

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The Nikkei 225 average in Japan fell by 6.2% and 10.6% on the first two days of the trading week respectively, before recovering a little (see top chart).
日本日股225平均指数在本周头两个交易日分别下跌了6.2%以及10.6%，之后回升了一点（见第一张图表）。
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Nikkei 225 （专有名词）日经平均指数/日经225指数

Since February markets have been caught off-guard by a combination of geopolitical risk, rising commodity prices and the prospect of tighter monetary policy.
自2月以来，市场就因为地理政治，商品价格风险以及货币政策收紧的预测等一系列混合因素超出了警戒范围。
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超出市场预期

With other commodity prices also driving up headline inflation, the European Central Bank signalled that it was on the brink of raising interest rates.
随着其他商品价格纷纷上涨，通货膨胀成了头版话题，欧洲央行暗示有意提高利率。
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headline inflation 整体通胀 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Headline_inflation

China has been pushing up interest rates and raising reserve requirements in the banking system in an effort to restrain growth.
为了保持稳定增长，中国已经上调了利率，对银行系统也提高了外汇储备要求。
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金融机构存款准备金

So the terrible news from Japan came at a time when investors were already looking to reduce their risk exposure.
所以说正当投资者们已经在寻求降低风险办法的时候，日本传来了噩耗。
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risk exposure 风险敞口

Texas Instruments said that two of its Japanese chip-making plants had been damaged; one of them, in Milo, was responsible for about 10% of the company’s output.
德州仪器公司称其两个日本芯片工厂已经遭到了破坏；其中位于米罗的芯片工厂产量约占整个公司的10%。
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负责公司10%产品的芯片供应。（芯片只是部件，而不是公司的产品output）

But that will take a while, and modern businesses run “just-in-time” inventory policies with very little slack.
但这需要时间，而奉行“即时生产”存货政策的现代厂家没有闲等的时间。
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及时制度 http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%8F%8A%E6%99%82%E5%88%B6%E5%BA%A6

引用 lh1710 2011-3-19 06:59

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灰常感谢热心又细心的Harry 童鞋！改得非常仔细！
有三点想讲一下：
risk expoure 我稍作了修改，觉得译成“风险敞口”稍显过于专业，令大众读者困扰，改了比较通俗的说法。

off guard 刚查了下，可以翻成“猝不及防”。

查了一下，just-in-time 比较通用的说法貌似是“及时制生产”。

其他地方修改得无可挑剔，赞一个！

引用 Harry1028 2011-3-20 05:27

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but some of it will be financed by Japanese investors repatriating assets, as happened after the Kobe earthquake of 1995, with potentially negative effects in other markets.
但另外一些将由日本投资者通过把资产向国内转移的方式来分担。他们在1995年阪神大地震后就已经有过这样的经验，虽然这对其他市场可能产生潜在的消极影响。
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但另外一些将由日本投资者通过把资产向国内转移的方式来分担，如他们在1995年阪神大地震后所为，这就对其他市场产生潜在的消极影响。

Japanese bonds were rather stable but the cost of insuring Japanese government debt against default rose sharply, as investors contemplated the long-term costs facing a government that already has gross debt of more than 200% of GDP.
但在投资者对已经背负GDP200%债务的政府是否能应对长期成本这个问题深思熟虑之后，投保日本政府因债务破产的成本便飞速上升了。
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不会发生债务违约

In equities, the widespread sell-off may have been a reaction to the overoptimism that prevailed earlier this year.
而随处可见的股票抛售行为可能是支持今年早些时候盛行的乐天派观点那些人的反应。
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可能是对市场年初过度乐观的反应

A survey of global fund managers in February, conducted on behalf of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, found that a net 67% were overweight equities (relative to their normal portfolio allocation).
2月份的一份代表美国银行对全球基金经理人的调查显示，共有67%的股票属于超重权益（相对于正常权益分配组合比例来说）。
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Bank of America Merrill Lynch is the investment banking and wealth management division of Bank of America 美国银行美林
67%基金经理增持股票（相对于其正常投资组合配置而言）

引用 lh1710 2011-3-20 22:14

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谢谢Harry同学，都快成了我的专用校对了。。。献花给你！

我的中文功底果然还是不好，多谢指点。不过有一点，overweight equity好像是个金融专业词汇，我查了查，是“超重权益”的意思。好像不是增持股票哦。。。这里不确定。

引用 Harry1028 2011-3-21 12:00

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overweight equity好像是个金融专业词汇，我查了查，是“超重权益”的意思。好像不是增持股票哦。。。
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http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/overweight.asp
What Does Overweight Mean?
1. A situation where a portfolio holds an excess amount of a particular security when compared to the security's weight in the underlying benchmark portfolio. Actively managed portfolios will make a security overweight when doing so will allow the portfolio to achieve excess returns.

2. An analyst's opinion regarding the future performance of a security. Overweight will usually signify that the security is expected to outperform either its industry, sector or, even, the market altogether.

Investopedia explains Overweight
1. Securities will usually be overweight when a portfolio manager believes that the security will outperform other securities in the portfolio. An example of overweighting a security would be when a portfolio normally holds a security at a weight of 15%, and the security's weight is raised to 25% in an attempt to increase the returns of the portfolio.

2. An example of an analyst's rating of overweight would be: The stock's return is expected to be above the average return of the overall industry over the next eight to 12 months. Specific analyst definitions vary regarding the time frame used and the benchmark the security is compared against.
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这里是否可以理解为在金融行业overweight意味着：1、“增持，增加某资产在组合中的比重”。2、“提高评级”。由于后文(relative to their normal portfolio allocation). 所以，应该理解为第一种解释。

引用 code 2011-3-21 15:58

本帖最后由 code 于 2011-3-21 18:10 编辑

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Government bonds in America and Germany benefited from the flight to safety that usually follows bad news.    这句怎么理解。。。


这个问题后来问到了~
from the flight to safety 是避险的意思，即由于负面消息产生后人们一般选择避险资产--国家债券就是一种避险资产，美国和德国债券因此受益，价格攀升。

引用 code 2011-3-21 16:15

本帖最后由 code 于 2011-3-21 16:18 编辑

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资产组合理论中权重一般为该股票的市值在整个股票市场市值中的比重，该理论的结论就是“不要把鸡蛋都放在同一个篮子里”也就是分散投资，而这个分散投资的策略就是按照权重组合而成的-市场组合，即每股按照自己在市场中的权重来进行配置的投资组合。
这里的意思应该是有67%的股票在这些基金经理的投资组合中都超出了正常的投资比例，即权重。也就是说明那时他们过于乐观了。

引用 lh1710 2011-3-21 19:39

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结合Harry 和Code同学的解释，似乎这里overweight equity译为“超权重股本”比较合适。

引用 lh1710 2011-3-21 19:41

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多谢Code同学指教！

引用 Harry1028 2011-3-22 04:27

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from the flight to safety 是避险的意思，即由于负面消息产生后人们一般选择避险资产--国家债券就是一种避险资产，美国和德国债券因此受益，价格攀升。
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是的。

换句话说，就是增加债券在证券投资组合配置中的权重。

引用 code 2011-3-22 10:00

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引用 hejilin3 2011-3-26 23:39

地理政治，通货膨胀，还有日本的地震。这些事件扩散开来给市场带来了一大堆负面影响，至于会到达什么程度说不准，有待后面看热闹！

引用 lh1710 2011-3-27 01:54

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路飞？

引用 lh1710 2011-3-27 15:01

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。。。。是。。。路大人。。。（漂亮姐姐？。。晕死。。。）

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