[2011.04.07] 从众的愚昧

引用 skittos 2011-4-8 23:25

本帖最后由 skittos 于 2011-4-8 23:27 编辑

笔记：

1. 对经济行业的术语和概念不甚明了，因此译文中一定错误多多，多谢各位指正。

2. Again, investors were more Nostradumbus than Nostradamus.
这句应该是个文字游戏，but the pun is lost in the translation～。

3. 文中的 crowds，people，mob，mass，译得比较乱，他们有时是从众，有时是群体，在本文中全视为同义词处理了。

引用 Somers 2011-4-9 09:02

本来想送上一朵鲜花的，才发现我的号不能送鲜花也不能扔鸡蛋，只好假装我送了吧。。。

引用 王呆呆 2011-4-9 17:02

in the past quarter of a century 在上世纪25年中？
在过去的25年吧

引用 王呆呆 2011-4-9 17:08

挺不错的

引用 suzieyue 2011-4-9 18:29

最后一句，“No thanks,” says the sage. “I’m going to check out that Hell rumour. Maybe there is some truth in it after all.”完全把人搞错了，是st peter要去地狱看看，不是要进天堂的那位
图上边那段most popular sector 译为最受追捧的是不是更好一些？

引用 aubreychen 2011-4-9 20:23

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Again, investors were more Nostradumbus than Nostradamus.
投资者比诺查丹玛斯【法国占星家】还要笨
这句话诚如楼主所说确实是 pun
但是翻译成这样我觉得不太妥当
这个诺查丹玛斯文中应该是说这个人占卜预测很准，而不是比他笨。我觉得可以译作
这些投资者要说他们是诺查丹玛斯不如说他们是“诺查笨要死”
附上这个人的小传
诺斯特拉达穆斯 [Nostradamus]  
原名米切尔·德·诺特雷达姆(Michel de Notredame)。
(1503.12.14,法国 圣雷米～1566.7.2,沙龙)
欧洲史, 人物小传

法国占星学家和医生，以其预言闻名。1529年起在法国南部从医，1546～1547年因创造性地治愈了瘟疫病人而名声大振。1547年开始说预言，1555年将这些预言出版成集，名为《诸世纪》，以有韵律的四行诗写成，将法文、拉丁文、西班牙文和希伯来文混杂在一起，形成隐义风格。卡特琳·德·梅迪契曾请他到其宫中占卜，1560年任查理九世的侍从医官。其预言仍被广泛阅读，读者发现他对诸如法国大革命和第一次世界大战这样的世界大事都作过明显的预言。

引用 aubreychen 2011-4-9 20:49

The long-term growth rate of earnings per share on the stockmarket has lagged behind that of American GDP because many of the fastest-growing companies are not quoted.
股市的每股盈利中的长期增长率一直滞后于美国生产总值(GDP)增长率，其原因在于许多增长最快的公司并不在公众交易所的报价之内。
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这句话中 because many of the fastest-growing companies are not quoted.
这里我的理解是，这些增长最快的公司并没有被那些专家分析家们预测，他们预测的都是不是涨势最猛的公司。这也说明这些分析家的分析如这段最后一句话总结的：The experts were no wiser than those they advised.
总的来说这段讲了三点：
1、。。。the forecasts implausible to begin with
2、。。。the fastest-growing companies are not quoted
3、。。。。just as the stockmarket was about to fall
最后总结：The experts were no wiser than those they advised.

引用 vajoy 2011-4-9 21:00

At the peaks it certainly pays to head in the opposite direction from the masses.
这句话感觉不太好理解呢 T T

引用 skittos 2011-4-9 21:48

本帖最后由 skittos 于 2011-4-9 21:50 编辑

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1. 如你指出，我翻译时，也觉得说Nostradamus笨很不对劲，他的预测也许没有科学佐证但他本人绝不笨。
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nostradamus

Most academic sources maintain that the associations made between world events and Nostradamus's quatrains are largely the result of misinterpretations or mistranslations (sometimes deliberate) or else are so tenuous as to render them useless as evidence of any genuine predictive power. Moreover, none of the sources listed offers any evidence that anyone has ever interpreted any of Nostradamus's quatrains specifically enough to allow a clear identification of any event in advance.

wiki 这篇英文写得不错，但中译却太。。。差劲了！

2. 假如作者也认同学界的主流看法，认为Nostradamus 的预测是“盲目”的话，那这句话：
Again, investors were more Nostradumbus than Nostradamus.
是否这么解读：投资者比诺查丹玛斯的盲目猜测要差远了，他们可以称为“诺查丹盲从”了！

引用 aubreychen 2011-4-9 21:59

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我的那个小传是从大英百科的中文袖珍版上贴下来的。我也看了维基百科，明白楼主的意思。你认为根据维基百科，因为他的预言的那些绝句都很模糊而且缺乏证据（中文概括一下就是他在扯淡），所以这里作者把他当做一个反面来看。
而我的理解是因为他以预测了很多大事件的发生，所以这个人应该是预测很准的。所以这里投资者不像他。。
分歧最终在于作者怎么看待这个nostradamus
我不是说我的看法对或者不对。。我只是觉得有这个可能，不敢肯定就是楼主所说的那样。所以提出来大家讨论一下

引用 skittos 2011-4-9 22:29

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赞分析方法。但其中还有一些蹊跷，待我再梳理一下:

1. consensus forecast for the long-term annual earnings growth VS. the long-term growth rate of earnings per share
预测很高，但事实不符。为何会造成这种现象？

2. The long-term growth rate of earnings per share on the stockmarket has lagged behind that of American GDP because many of the fastest-growing companies are not quoted.
专家分析为何会忽略？还是计算方法上有问题，如：因为长期的计算长度不能包括在短期内增长很快的公司？

引用 skittos 2011-4-9 22:41

本帖最后由 skittos 于 2011-4-9 23:11 编辑

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我不是说我的看法对或者不对。。我只是觉得有这个可能，不敢肯定就是楼主所说的那样。所以提出来大家讨论一下

本来就没有异议啊，你提出的对我启发很大。继续讨论ing。。。

紧扣原句分析：

Because the star performers tend to be fairly specialised, covering areas like China, property or Latin America, they are never likely to receive the biggest fund flows. Most American investors opt for broad equity or government-bond portfolios. Again, investors were more Nostradumbus than Nostradamus. The average fund flow into what turned out to be the worst-performing sector over the subsequent 12-month period was $166m; the average flow into the best was only $72m.

1. 为何again？investors 起码做错了2点以上。

Because the star performers tend to be fairly specialised, covering areas like China, property or Latin America, they are never likely to receive the biggest fund flows. Most American investors opt for broad equity or government-bond portfolios.

这句我理解是说，investor 犯错了：他们的资金没有投入 specialized star performers 而是进了broad equity or government-bond portfolios，此为1错；

2. The average fund flow into what turned out to be the worst-performing sector over the subsequent 12-month period was $166m; the average flow into the best was only $72m.

这句说，在买好买差的甄别上，investors 又判断错了，此为2错。
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综合：again，investors were more 。。。than。。。这句的句型是：又一次，他们比。。。更加（如何）

如果作者对Nostradamus 的预测取肯定态度的话，那应该是赞扬investors的预测能力。但这里根据作者例举的事实，及在语气上明显不是。所以我认为作者对Nostradamus 的预测是否定的，并认为inverstors 的做法（跟风）比Nostradamus更加盲目，不知所以。

引用 aubreychen 2011-4-9 23:03

1. consensus forecast for the long-term annual earnings growth VS. the long-term growth rate of earnings per share
预测很高，但事实不符。为何会造成这种现象？

2. The long-term growth rate of earnings per share on the stockmarket has lagged behind that of American GDP because many of the fastest-growing companies are not quoted.
专家分析为何会忽略？还是计算方法上有问题，如：因为长期的计算长度不能包括在短期内增长很快的公司？
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关于楼主的两个问题，在下的理解如下：
1、预测和事实不符，造成这个原因正是我刚才写下的三点原因，不过这其中第一点 It was far faster than the annual growth rate of the American economy,。也是解释上文的为什么rate没有achieve的原因。
详细说一下预测和事实不符，首先就是经济赶不上这个夸张的预测，第二、你预测的公司又不是最好的。平均股价落后与GDP增长。第三你预测的时候正值股市要玩完。所以这三点原因造成预测错误。而且从作者这句 Such a rate was not achieved, of course. 可以感觉出，这种大部分受益都超过10%的预测肯定不靠谱。

2、 The long-term growth rate of earnings per share on the stockmarket has lagged behind that of American GDP because many of the fastest-growing companies are not quoted.
这句话里的the long-term growth rate of earnings per share是事实上的长期每股增长，是预测的那些公司中实际上的每股长期受益率，这些要低于behind that of American GDP ，而原因正是因为预测的那些公司很多不是增长最快的公司，说明分析家的当初选择就有错误。至于楼主所问，为什么会忽略，这个我觉得可以从上文看吧，因为供参考的东西都是过去的，所以很多表现好的结果后来的受益还在平均值以下。

以上都是个人的理解。。我真的经常出错，，，如果错了欢迎指出 your opinions are always welcome

引用 skittos 2011-4-9 23:19

以上都是个人的理解。。我真的经常出错，，，

  I am more aubucheng than aubreychen ——我比你还不成，也许能讨论出 负负得正呢

引用 skittos 2011-4-10 00:18

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aubreychen  我明白你的说法，我的理解更像是rather than Nostradamus，investors are more like Nostradumbus。。我当时是这么理解的所以也是认为投资者是dumb的
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you may be right. 接受！  

引用 Somers 2011-4-10 06:25

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假装的不行，呼唤鲜花，多多益善！春天珊珊而来，一不留神中已是满目姿彩，令人心情大变～～～

这个绝对是科学史上的一大技术难题，我真只能假装送了，tom同学可以作证的。。。

引用 Justin.Lin 2011-4-10 17:32

pariah funds 应该是指散户资金/公众投资
broad equity or government-bond portfolios 应该是指公众持股比例高的投资组合。

引用 yannanchen 2011-4-10 21:51

Kennedy later claimed he knew the rampant stock speculation of the late 1920s would lead to a crash. It is said that he knew it was time to get out of the market when he received stock tips from a shoe-shine boy.[8] Kennedy survived the crash "because he possessed a passion for facts, a complete lack of sentiment and a marvelous sense of timing."[9] During the Depression Kennedy vastly increased his financial fortune by investing most of it in real estate. In 1929, Kennedy's fortune was estimated to be $4 million (equivalent to $51.3 million today[4]). By 1935, his wealth had increased to $180 million (equivalent to $2.88 billion today[4]).

引用 yannanchen 2011-4-10 21:53

FORTUNE Magazine) – JOE KENNEDY, a famous rich guy in his day, exited the stock market in timely fashion after a shoeshine boy gave him some stock tips. He figured that when the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good, a theory also advanced by Bernard Baruch, another vested interest who described the scene before the big Crash:

"Taxi drivers told you what to buy. The shoeshine boy could give you a summary of the day's financial news as he worked with rag and polish. An old beggar who regularly patrolled the street in front of my office now gave me tips and, I suppose, spent the money I and others gave him in the market. My cook had a brokerage account and followed the ticker closely. Her paper profits were quickly blown away in the gale of 1929."

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Are we at the same fatal stage in the market today, when people who aren't expected to have stock tips have stock tips, including hot dog vendors, shoeshine boys, the homeless, pedicurists, barroom dancers, toll takers, and the trumpet player at the racetrack? Will stock prices fall off the cliff under the weight of enormous popularity?

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