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标题: 20240629 谁能合理地取代乔-拜登? 民主党人才济济 [打印本页]

作者: shiyi18    时间: 2024-7-1 20:35
标题: 20240629 谁能合理地取代乔-拜登? 民主党人才济济
谁能合理地取代乔-拜登?
民主党人才济济
美国总统乔-拜登的背影
照片:盖蒂图片社
2024年6月29日


早在乔-拜登(Joe Biden)和唐纳德-特朗普(Donald Trump)于 6 月 27 日进行的辩论还未进行到 90 分钟的时候,一些严肃的社交媒体账户上就开始出现他们的名字。此前,拜登先生将成为民主党提名人已毫无疑问。而总统的拙劣表演则让这一切变得扑朔迷离。以下是拜登先生的十位可信替代人选的简介。我们之所以选择他们,并不是因为我们一定会支持他们,也不是因为他们代表了民主党的所有派别,而是因为我们认为他们最有可能在分裂的大会上胜出。党内有管理各州、管理联邦各部门的可靠领导人,他们的出生证明是在 D 日之后签发的。

肯塔基州州长安迪-贝希尔
照片:AP
安迪-贝希尔,肯塔基州州长。46 岁

如今,贝希尔先生是一种非常罕见的动物:一个深红州的民主党州长(特朗普先生在 2020 年以约三分之二的选票赢得了肯塔基州)。他低调的风格、务实的政治和血统--他的父亲曾担任过同样的职位--都对他有所帮助。晨间咨询公司(Morning Consult)在 2024 年 4 月进行的一项民意调查显示,贝希尔先生是最受欢迎的现任民主党州长,支持率为 65%,总支持率排名第四。去年,他凭借该州的低失业率、巨额预算盈余和汽车制造商的大笔工厂投资赢得连任。但共和党在州议会中的超级多数使得他很难阻止他不喜欢的法律: 在上届立法会议上,共和党推翻了他 23 项否决中的 20 项。

美国交通部长皮特-巴蒂吉格
照片:图片联盟
皮特-巴蒂吉格,交通部长。42 岁

布提吉格先生毕业于哈佛大学和牛津大学,曾任麦肯锡公司顾问,是一名海军退伍军人,他的外表和声音与之前许多温和、循规蹈矩的民主党政治家一样--除了他与一名男子结了婚这一事实。他将成为主要政党候选人名单中第一位公开的同性恋者。在布蒂吉格先生参加 2020 年民主党初选之前,他的家乡印第安纳州以外的选民很少听说过他,当时他在爱荷华州赢得了第一场提名竞选,但最终退出了竞选。在那场竞选中,他一直被称为 "皮特市长":他唯一的民选职位是印第安纳州南本德市长(人口约 10 万)。拜登先生后来任命他为交通部长,让他负责分配 1,260 亿美元的联邦资金,这是 2021 年通过的大型基础设施法的一部分。如今,他正忙于为拜登先生的电动汽车补贴辩护,抵御共和党的攻击。

副总统卡马拉-哈里斯
照片:AP
卡马拉-哈里斯,副总统。59 岁

作为副总统,哈里斯女士是接替拜登先生的不二人选。遗憾的是,她并没有给民主党的大人物们带来信心,选民们也感觉到了这一点。经济学人》/YouGov 最近的民调显示,她的支持率仅略高于她的上司。情况并非总是如此糟糕。哈里斯女士是因民权运动而走到一起的南亚和牙买加移民的女儿,她作为美国第一位非白人和第一位女性副总统创造了历史。在进入椭圆形办公室之前,她曾担任旧金山地区检察官和加州总检察长,并于 2017 年成为参议员。哈里斯女士一直是拜登竞选团队最近努力争取黑人选民支持的核心人物,而她自己在 2020 年竞选总统失败时也曾努力争取黑人选民的支持。在上任之初,她因处理边境问题而受到批评,之后她一直在努力塑造自己独特的政治身份。最近,她在生育权问题上找到了自己的立足点。

加州州长加文-纽森
照片:AP
加文-纽森,加州州长。56 岁

在这份名单中,这位深蓝加利福尼亚州的州长比大多数人更清楚领导一个国家意味着什么。如果加州是一个国家,它将拥有世界第五大经济体。这里是硅谷和好莱坞的发源地。纽森先生曾与习近平和教皇弗朗西斯会面;他是一位精通政策细节的灵活辩论者。他也为许多美国人所熟知,这要归功于他喜欢在国家电视台发表评论,也是拜登先生最有发言权的代言人之一。如果他是民主党的提名人,纽森先生和他的主张(堕胎权、更严格的枪支法、更快地摆脱化石燃料)将会更加广为人知。这是一种恩赐,也是一种诅咒。在共和党人眼中,纽森先生是进步主义的化身;而他在21世纪初担任市长的旧金山则是衰落的代名词。他们说,加州的问题--无家可归、生活成本高和预算赤字--都是他管理不善的证明。

贾里德-波利斯,科罗拉多州州长。49 岁

这位连任两届的科罗拉多州州长一直在为 2028 年竞选总统做准备。他的竞选理由令人信服。波利斯先生是一名同性恋者和犹太人,这有助于他获得民主党人的青睐,因为民主党人希望看到候选人名单的顶端有更多的多样性。更重要的是他的务实政治。科罗拉多州如今是稳固的蓝色地区,波利斯先生功不可没。本世纪初,他是 "四人帮 "中的自由派捐款人之一,该组织成功地在科罗拉多州各级政府中选举出了民主党人。(在从政之前,波利斯先生是一位科技企业家:他的净资产至少有 3 亿美元)。他的西方自由主义思想有助于吸引科罗拉多州众多的独立选民。他还了解华盛顿特区的情况,因为早些时候他曾在科罗拉多州担任过十年的国会议员。要想在竞争中胜出,他必须克服缺乏全国知名度的问题,以及被揭露逃避缴纳数百万美元所得税的问题。

请关注我们的每日美国政治时事通讯、我们的简报,以及我们的总统民调追踪。

伊利诺伊州州长普利兹克
照片:图片联盟
J.B. 普利兹克,伊利诺伊州州长。59 岁

从纸面上看,普利兹克先生并不是一个显而易见的选择。他来自共和党人厌恶的芝加哥,是凯悦酒店集团的亿万富翁继承人。但他以政治无情而著称。在 2022 年的中期选举中,他赢得了连任;通过倡导受欢迎的政策,他帮助加强了民主党在伊利诺伊州议会中的超级多数地位;部分通过财政支持和签署新的选区重划地图,他帮助扩大了本党的众议院代表团,使其在 17 个席位中占据了惊人的 14 席。他签署了大量进步立法--扩大带薪休假、禁止使用冲锋枪、取消现金保释--同时保持温和派的支持。在全国范围内,他利用自己的堕胎权利游说团体 "大美国思维"(Think Big America)来扩大自己的影响力,他在民主党活动人士中很受欢迎。尽管家境富裕,但他的成长经历并不容易。他的父亲在他七岁时突然去世,酗酒的母亲也在十年后死于车祸。

美国商务部长吉娜-雷蒙多
照片:图片联盟
吉娜-雷蒙多,商务部长。53 岁

雷蒙多女士深受商界领袖的欢迎,在拜登的第二个任期内,她已被提名为财政部长珍妮特-耶伦的继任者。她根据《芯片法案》向科技公司拨款数十亿美元,该法案是 2022 年通过的一系列激励措施,旨在将先进的芯片制造技术带回美国。雷蒙多女士是意大利移民的孙女,她的父亲是一名海军退伍军人,在他工作的工厂倒闭并将生产转移到中国后失去了工作。雷蒙多女士先后就读于哈佛大学、牛津大学和耶鲁大学,2001 年创办了一家风险投资公司。在 2015 年成为罗德岛州第一位女州长之前,她曾担任该州的财政部长。她对罗德岛州的公共养老金制度进行了大刀阔斧的改革,该制度曾是美国最大的养老金负债。

宾夕法尼亚州州长乔希-夏皮罗
照片:AP
乔希-夏皮罗,宾夕法尼亚州州长。51 岁

夏皮罗先生说,当州长是 "我唯一想做的工作"。不过,在紫色的宾夕法尼亚州当选州长可能是竞选全国州长的好机会。夏皮罗先生是一位温和派人士,在2022年的竞选活动中经常以共和党人的口吻出现。他得到了左派、中间派甚至一些共和党人的支持,这在总统竞选的战场上可不是一件小事。他在一场资金雄厚的竞选中击败了对手,成为 64 年来宾夕法尼亚州首位接替民主党现任者的民主党人。他的座右铭 "Get stuff done"(或 "Get shit done",视听众而定)并非空谈。与民主党人不同的是,他是学校代金券的支持者。去年,他迅速重新开放了倒塌的重要高速公路 i-95,赢得了赞誉。作为总检察长,他因对天主教会性虐待事件的重磅调查而成为全国头条新闻。他是一名虔诚的犹太人,在费城郊外长大,父亲是一名教师,母亲是一名前海军军官,这激励他成为一名公务员。

美国参议员拉斐尔-沃诺克(Raphael G. Warnock
照片:图片联盟
拉斐尔-沃诺克,佐治亚州参议员。54 岁

沃诺克先生是首位来自南方的黑人民主党参议员,他的当选将有助于减缓黑人选民向特朗普先生倾斜的趋势。他还将增加民主党拿下佐治亚州的机会,拜登先生曾在2020年以微弱优势赢得这个摇摆州,但今年很可能会失利。这位参议员是一位极具魅力的演讲家,但对公职却相当陌生:他在 2021 年的一次特别选举中赢得了他的首次竞选,填补了一位即将退休的共和党人空出的席位。第二年,他赢得了整个任期。沃诺克先生是 12 个孩子中的第 11 个,在补贴住房中长大。他的父母都是传教士,他继承了他们的事业,35 岁时成为亚特兰大埃比尼泽浸信会的高级牧师,小马丁-路德-金曾经担任过这个职位。在那里,他开始参与政治。他推动了刑事司法改革,扩大了针对穷人的医疗保险计划--医疗补助计划(Medicaid),并曾在一次抗议活动中被捕。

密歇根州州长格雷琴-惠特默
照片:AP
格雷琴-惠特默,密歇根州州长。52 岁

2020 年,民主党领导人选中刚刚担任州长不到一年的惠特默女士发表讲话,反驳唐纳德-特朗普的国情咨文。由于她务实的政治风格和在密歇根这个战场州的成功记录,惠特默女士的星光一直高照。2022 年,她在竞选中大力争取堕胎权,以 10 个百分点的优势赢得连任;民主党获得了议会两院的控制权。这位密歇根人的元音很短,"g "有时会掉下来("这些基本权利有被剥夺的危险")。她本想成为一名体育主持人,但在州众议院实习后,不到 30 岁就成为了一名立法者。她在全国的知名度使她成为全国性的目标: 特朗普先生敦促支持者将密歇根州从她19岁时的禁锢中 "解放 "出来,而在2020年,她曾是右翼绑架阴谋(已被挫败)的目标。■


Who could plausibly replace Joe Biden?
The Democrats have a deep bench of talent
Backshot of US President Joe Biden
photograph: getty images
Jun 29th 2024

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Long before the debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump on June 27th mercifully reached the 90-minute mark, names began popping up on serious social-media accounts. There had previously been no question that Mr Biden would be the Democratic Party’s nominee. Then the president’s bumbling performance made it a burning one. Here are brief profiles of ten plausible alternatives to Mr Biden. We selected them not because we would necessarily favour them, nor because they represent all of the party’s wings—but because we think they would have the best chance of winning over a divided convention. The party has credible leaders who run states, manage federal departments and have birth certificates that were issued after d-Day.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
photograph: ap
Andy Beshear, governor of Kentucky. Age 46

Mr Beshear is a vanishingly rare animal these days: a Democratic governor in a deep-red state (Mr Trump won Kentucky with about two-thirds of the vote in 2020). His low-key style, pragmatic politics and pedigree—his father occupied the same office—all help. A poll in April 2024 by Morning Consult ranked Mr Beshear the most popular sitting Democratic governor, with an approval rating of 65%, and the fourth-most popular overall. Last year he won re-election by touting the state’s low unemployment, large budget surplus and big factory investments by carmakers. But a Republican supermajority in the state legislature has made it difficult to block laws that he dislikes: Republicans overrode 20 of his 23 vetoes in the past legislative session.

United States Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg
photograph: picture alliance
Pete Buttigieg, transportation secretary. Age 42

A graduate of Harvard and Oxford, former McKinsey consultant and navy veteran, Mr Buttigieg looks and sounds like many moderate, buttoned-up Democratic politicians before him—except for the fact that he is married to a man. He would be the first openly gay person on a major party’s ticket. Few voters outside his home state of Indiana had heard of Mr Buttigieg before his run in the Democratic primary in 2020, when he won the first nominating contest, in Iowa, before eventually dropping out. He was known throughout that campaign as “Mayor Pete”: his only elected office has been the mayoralty of South Bend, Indiana (population roughly 100,000). Mr Biden later made him transportation secretary and put him in charge of distributing $126bn of federal money, part of a big infrastructure law passed in 2021. These days he is busy defending Mr Biden’s electric-vehicle subsidies against Republican attacks.

Vice President Kamala Harris
photograph: ap
Kamala Harris, vice-president. Age 59

As vice-president, Ms Harris is the obvious choice to replace Mr Biden. Unfortunately, she does not inspire confidence in Democratic grandees, and voters sense that. Recent polling by The Economist/YouGov suggests she is only a slightly more favourable option than her boss. Things did not always look so dismal. The daughter of South Asian and Jamaican immigrants brought together by the civil-rights movement, Ms Harris made history as America’s first non-white and first female vice-president. Before the Oval Office, she served as San Francisco’s district attorney and California’s attorney-general, and became a senator in 2017. Ms Harris has been central to the Biden campaign’s recent efforts to drum up support among black voters, a group she struggled to impress during her own botched campaign for the presidency in 2020. After criticism early in her term over her handling of the border, she has tried to conjure a distinct political identity. She has found her footing more recently on the issue of reproductive rights.

California Governor Gavin Newsom
photograph: ap
Gavin Newsom, governor of California. Age 56

The boss of deep-blue California has a better notion than most in this list of what it would mean to lead a country. If it were a nation, California would have the world’s fifth-largest economy. It is home to both Silicon Valley and Hollywood. Mr Newsom has met Xi Jinping and Pope Francis; he is a nimble debater steeped in policy details. He is also known to lots of Americans, thanks to his penchant for punditry on national television and as one of Mr Biden’s most vocal surrogates. Were he the Democrats’ nominee, Mr Newsom and what he stands for (abortion rights, stricter gun laws, a faster transition away from fossil fuels) would be better known still. That is a gift and a curse. Republicans see Mr Newsom as the embodiment of progressivism; San Francisco, where he was mayor in the early 2000s, as a byword for decline. They say California’s problems—homelessness, high cost of living and a budget deficit—are proof of his mismanagement.

Colorado Governor Jared Polis
photograph: ap
Jared Polis, governor of Colorado. Age 49

The second-term governor of Colorado has been burnishing his credentials ahead of a widely expected run for the presidency in 2028. His pitch is compelling. Mr Polis is gay and Jewish, which could help his stock with Democrats who would like to see more diversity at the top of the ticket. More important are his pragmatic politics. Colorado is solidly blue these days—thanks in part to Mr Polis. In the early 2000s he was one of the liberal donors in the “Gang of Four”, which ran a successful campaign to elect Democrats at all levels of government in the state. (Before he entered politics, Mr Polis was a tech entrepreneur: his net worth is at least $300m). His western libertarianism helps charm Colorado’s many independent voters. He also understands Washington, dc, having earlier spent a decade as a congressman for Colorado. To be competitive, he would have to overcome a lack of national name-recognition, and revelations that he evaded paying income tax on his millions.






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