Who could plausibly replace Joe Biden?
The Democrats have a deep bench of talent
Backshot of US President Joe Biden
photograph: getty images
Jun 29th 2024
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Long before the debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump on June 27th mercifully reached the 90-minute mark, names began popping up on serious social-media accounts. There had previously been no question that Mr Biden would be the Democratic Party’s nominee. Then the president’s bumbling performance made it a burning one. Here are brief profiles of ten plausible alternatives to Mr Biden. We selected them not because we would necessarily favour them, nor because they represent all of the party’s wings—but because we think they would have the best chance of winning over a divided convention. The party has credible leaders who run states, manage federal departments and have birth certificates that were issued after d-Day.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
photograph: ap
Andy Beshear, governor of Kentucky. Age 46
Mr Beshear is a vanishingly rare animal these days: a Democratic governor in a deep-red state (Mr Trump won Kentucky with about two-thirds of the vote in 2020). His low-key style, pragmatic politics and pedigree—his father occupied the same office—all help. A poll in April 2024 by Morning Consult ranked Mr Beshear the most popular sitting Democratic governor, with an approval rating of 65%, and the fourth-most popular overall. Last year he won re-election by touting the state’s low unemployment, large budget surplus and big factory investments by carmakers. But a Republican supermajority in the state legislature has made it difficult to block laws that he dislikes: Republicans overrode 20 of his 23 vetoes in the past legislative session.
United States Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg
photograph: picture alliance
Pete Buttigieg, transportation secretary. Age 42
A graduate of Harvard and Oxford, former McKinsey consultant and navy veteran, Mr Buttigieg looks and sounds like many moderate, buttoned-up Democratic politicians before him—except for the fact that he is married to a man. He would be the first openly gay person on a major party’s ticket. Few voters outside his home state of Indiana had heard of Mr Buttigieg before his run in the Democratic primary in 2020, when he won the first nominating contest, in Iowa, before eventually dropping out. He was known throughout that campaign as “Mayor Pete”: his only elected office has been the mayoralty of South Bend, Indiana (population roughly 100,000). Mr Biden later made him transportation secretary and put him in charge of distributing $126bn of federal money, part of a big infrastructure law passed in 2021. These days he is busy defending Mr Biden’s electric-vehicle subsidies against Republican attacks.
Vice President Kamala Harris
photograph: ap
Kamala Harris, vice-president. Age 59
As vice-president, Ms Harris is the obvious choice to replace Mr Biden. Unfortunately, she does not inspire confidence in Democratic grandees, and voters sense that. Recent polling by The Economist/YouGov suggests she is only a slightly more favourable option than her boss. Things did not always look so dismal. The daughter of South Asian and Jamaican immigrants brought together by the civil-rights movement, Ms Harris made history as America’s first non-white and first female vice-president. Before the Oval Office, she served as San Francisco’s district attorney and California’s attorney-general, and became a senator in 2017. Ms Harris has been central to the Biden campaign’s recent efforts to drum up support among black voters, a group she struggled to impress during her own botched campaign for the presidency in 2020. After criticism early in her term over her handling of the border, she has tried to conjure a distinct political identity. She has found her footing more recently on the issue of reproductive rights.
California Governor Gavin Newsom
photograph: ap
Gavin Newsom, governor of California. Age 56
The boss of deep-blue California has a better notion than most in this list of what it would mean to lead a country. If it were a nation, California would have the world’s fifth-largest economy. It is home to both Silicon Valley and Hollywood. Mr Newsom has met Xi Jinping and Pope Francis; he is a nimble debater steeped in policy details. He is also known to lots of Americans, thanks to his penchant for punditry on national television and as one of Mr Biden’s most vocal surrogates. Were he the Democrats’ nominee, Mr Newsom and what he stands for (abortion rights, stricter gun laws, a faster transition away from fossil fuels) would be better known still. That is a gift and a curse. Republicans see Mr Newsom as the embodiment of progressivism; San Francisco, where he was mayor in the early 2000s, as a byword for decline. They say California’s problems—homelessness, high cost of living and a budget deficit—are proof of his mismanagement.
Colorado Governor Jared Polis
photograph: ap
Jared Polis, governor of Colorado. Age 49
The second-term governor of Colorado has been burnishing his credentials ahead of a widely expected run for the presidency in 2028. His pitch is compelling. Mr Polis is gay and Jewish, which could help his stock with Democrats who would like to see more diversity at the top of the ticket. More important are his pragmatic politics. Colorado is solidly blue these days—thanks in part to Mr Polis. In the early 2000s he was one of the liberal donors in the “Gang of Four”, which ran a successful campaign to elect Democrats at all levels of government in the state. (Before he entered politics, Mr Polis was a tech entrepreneur: his net worth is at least $300m). His western libertarianism helps charm Colorado’s many independent voters. He also understands Washington, dc, having earlier spent a decade as a congressman for Colorado. To be competitive, he would have to overcome a lack of national name-recognition, and revelations that he evaded paying income tax on his millions.