2013.12.23 狗币会取代比特币吗？

shiyi18

WILL DOGECOIN REPLACE BITCOIN?
TRISTAN WINTERSDEC 23, 2013
Op-ed - Will Dogecoin Replace Bitcoin?
Five years ago Saint Satoshi penned a brilliant idea. This idea was given freely to us. It has since fostered an arena where programmers cooperate, collaborate and compete to build viable alternatives. The latest entrant is Dogecoin.

Dogecoin began life as a sarcastic remark on Twitter: “Investing in Dogecoin, pretty sure it’s the next big thing.” After gaining traction online the idea became a reality. It has spread primarily through tipping on Reddit.

Dogecoin is a variation of the Bitcoin source code that, like Litecoin, uses Scrypt. However, with Dogecoin, the technical aspects are less interesting than the social. The technical aspects are familiar. The marketing, based on a popular meme series, is novel.

It has touched a nerve. Its value has soared and recently corrected. In a short space of time it has captured a large amount of value and the scenes imagination.

Despite this flying start Dogecoin is still just a puppy. Its future is uncertain. Of course, the same can be said for all alts and Bitcoin too, albeit to a lesser extent.

For now Dogecoin has been most successful in holding a mirror up to the community. It is forcing us to reflect at a key point in this technology’s evolution. This article’s title is deliberately provocative. Dogecoin will be used as a conduit for a deeper analysis of how decentralised crypto-currency arrived at this point in history.

Bitcoin is entrenched. It is the original. All others spring from it. It is the base currency on exchange, with a multi-billion dollar market cap. It is the yardstick by which we measure the overall health of the space. It is king.

Dogecoin is the newest alt on the scene. It started life as a joke on social media. It takes a light-hearted approach to otherwise serious issues of value, finance and liberty. It is an unashamedly jolly prankster. It’s young, innocent and foolish. Dogecoin is a jester.

The two are seemingly worlds apart. But are they really so different? They are, after-all, the same core technology. Branding and marketing are where they diverge.

In a world of infinite possibility what does Dogecoin need to replace Bitcoin?

How to build a successful alt: just add water.

Peter Schiff and Erik Voorhees debated the viability of crypto-currency this November. During the discussion Schiff questioned whether Bitcoin would endure: a fair question. In response Voorhees pointed to the years and billions spent building the necessary infrastructure and architecture around Bitcoin.

Such infrastructure is key to the long-term success of any coin. But Bitcoin is not necessarily as far ahead as some would have you believe.

Bitcoin as a transaction network, up until six months ago, was very much a Satoshi Dice story. Some estimates have the game accounting for up to a half of all transactions on the blockchain. Satoshi Dice acted to drill the blockchain: testing its strength and viability as a global payment network.

In addition to Satoshi Dice and up until more recently, a significant number of Bitcoins were being transacted through the Silk Road. Estimates are rough and hotly debated. But the silk-road is certainly the marketplace where Bitcoin gained footing and gathered steam. The Silk Road showcased the potential of Bitcoin to the world.

Dogecoin would benefit from the addition of these two key ingredients. Indeed, there is already a Satoshi Dice clone for Dogecoin. A Silk Road clone is still lacking. One could imagine a Black Market that only accepted Dogecoin as capturing the world’s imagination and securing sustained publicity.

However, for a coin to have true long-term viability, still more is required. Dogecoin must foster a community around it: a clique of passionate individuals acting to build the necessary foundational layers on top of the protocol adaptation.

Going forward, varied implementations of the protocol are the primary foundational layer required to sustain any coin.

Currently there are approximately half a dozen well know implementations of Bitcoin. A healthy network requires diversity. Diversity helps to protect against vulnerability. For Dogecoin to have longevity then developers must work on implementing it. This foundational layer is fundamental to the architecture.

In the initial stages the rewards for such important code are not easily identifiable or guaranteed. So, to get even more reductive, Dogecoin must inspire.

Inspiration will be the lifeblood of Dogecoin. If individual actors are not inspired to work on the core code then a core group of dedicated and passionate developers will never form.

It goes deeper still. Individuals must be inspired to associate and cooperate to ‘evangelise’ the coin. Dogecoin will live and die by its ability to sell a raison d’etre: something above immediate profit that motivates people to action. This message must be capable of sustaining momentum over time.

Dogecoin has been successful in doing this already. While conceived in jest, Dogecoin has a serious intention. As David Gilbert of the ibtimes notes “Dogecoin is envisioned as an anti-bitcoin” now that bitcoin is increasingly “seen as the plaything of serious investors and businessmen such as the Winklevoss Twins.”

This comical approach to an otherwise serious technology is where Dogecoin has found its niche and gained traction. As Gilbert notes further, “It’s not taking itself as seriously, it’s not being used by people worrying about whether they’ll become rich.”

The long-term potential of this message remains to be seen. However, at this early stage, it has already showed a clear ability to inspire. Clarity of purpose is slowly and organically forming around Dogecoin. The core fan base already exists and social media traction has been achieved. A strong spring-board for next level growth now exists.

Dogecoin’s core supporters must be so inspired by this message that they go forth and inspire others. Network effects will eventually take hold. A Dogecoin Jesus will certainly be required.

A community driven by a broad unity of purpose will foster network effects that necessarily create brand recognition. Brand recognition for Dogecoin will lead to acceptance in trade. The market mechanism will then see entrepreneurs build payment processor companies. Such companies are necessary for interaction with Dogecoin.

The Recipe for Success

Dogecoin, to replace Bitcoin as the leading cryptocurrency, will require: 1 Satoshi Dice clone, 1 black market, 1 Dogecoin Jesus, 2 payment processors, a cohesive raison d’etre (smothered lovingly with inspirational rhetoric), 3 oz. of infrastructure, a pinch of core developer talent and a splash of evangelical zeal. Place in the oven and bake at 250 degrees for 5 years. Oh yeah, don’t forget to add water.

Of course, all this assumes that Dogecoin needs to follow precisely in Bitcoin’s footsteps to replicate its success. This is not necessarily true. It could blaze its own trail. However, with an analysis of the budding Bitcoin ecosystem, a formula emerges. Dogecoin would do well to follow this formula. The path has been beaten, so why not? And may this recipe inspire one thousand other tasty alts to rise.

SILK ROADDOGECOINDICE
Tristan Winters
BY TRISTAN WINTERS



狗币会取代比特币吗？
崔斯坦-温特2013年12月23日
专栏文章--Dogecoin会取代比特币吗？
五年前，圣人中本聪写下了一个绝妙的想法。这个想法被免费送给了我们。此后，它培养了一个程序员合作、协作和竞争的舞台，以建立可行的替代品。最新的加入者是Dogecoin。

Dogecoin的生命开始于Twitter上的一句讽刺性的话。"投资Dogecoin，非常确定它是下一个大事件"。在网上获得牵引力后，这个想法变成了现实。它主要通过Reddit上的小费传播。

Dogecoin是比特币源代码的一种变体，与Litecoin一样，使用Scrypt。然而，对于Dogecoin，技术方面没有社会方面那么有趣。技术方面是熟悉的。基于一个流行的备忘录系列的营销是新颖的。

它已经触动了人们的神经。它的价值已经飙升，最近又有所修正。在很短的时间内，它抓住了大量的价值和场景的想象力。

尽管有了这个飞速的开始，Dogecoin仍然只是一只小狗。它的未来是不确定的。当然，所有的代理币和比特币也可以这么说，尽管程度较轻。

就目前而言，Dogecoin在向社区举起一面镜子方面非常成功。它迫使我们在这个技术发展的一个关键点上进行反思。这篇文章的标题是故意挑衅的。Dogecoin将作为一个渠道，深入分析去中心化的加密货币是如何到达这个历史节点的。

比特币是根深蒂固的。它是最初的。所有其他的都来自于它。它是交易所的基础货币，拥有数十亿美元的市值。它是我们衡量该领域整体健康状况的标尺。它是国王。

狗币是现场最新的替代货币。它是以社交媒体上的一个笑话开始的。它以一种轻松的方式处理价值、金融和自由等严肃问题。它是一个毫无顾忌的快乐的恶作剧者。它是年轻的、天真的和愚蠢的。Dogecoin是一个小丑。

这两者似乎是天壤之别。但它们真的如此不同吗？毕竟，它们的核心技术是一样的。品牌和营销是它们的分歧所在。

在一个充满无限可能的世界里，狗币需要什么来取代比特币？

如何建立一个成功的ALT：只需加水。

Peter Schiff和Erik Voorhees在今年11月辩论了加密货币的可行性。在讨论中，希夫质疑比特币是否会持续下去：这是一个公平的问题。作为回应，Voorhees指出，围绕比特币建立必要的基础设施和架构已经花费了多年和数十亿美元。

这种基础设施是任何币种长期成功的关键。但比特币并不一定像有些人认为的那样遥遥领先。

比特币作为一个交易网络，直到六个月前，都是中本聪的故事。一些人估计，该游戏在区块链上的所有交易中占到一半。中本聪骰子的行为是为了钻研区块链：测试其作为全球支付网络的强度和可行性。

除了Satoshi Dice，直到最近，还有大量的比特币通过丝绸之路进行交易。估计是粗略的，而且有激烈的争论。但丝绸之路无疑是比特币获得立足之地并聚集人气的市场。丝绸之路向世界展示了比特币的潜力。

Dogecoin将从这两个关键因素的加入中受益。事实上，Dogecoin已经有了一个中本聪骰子的克隆品。目前还缺少一个丝绸之路的克隆。人们可以想象，一个只接受Dogecoin的黑市会抓住世界的想象力并确保持续的宣传。

然而，对于一个硬币来说，要想拥有真正的长期生存能力，还需要更多。狗币必须在它周围培养一个社区：一个由充满激情的个人组成的小团体，在协议适应的基础上建立必要的基础层。

展望未来，协议的不同实现是维持任何硬币所需的主要基础层。

目前，大约有半打知名的比特币实现方式。一个健康的网络需要多样性。多样性有助于防止出现漏洞。为了让Dogecoin有长久的生命力，那么开发者必须努力实现它。这个基础层是架构的根本。

在初始阶段，这种重要代码的奖励不容易被识别或保证。因此，为了更加还原，Dogecoin必须激发灵感。

灵感将是Dogecoin的命脉。如果个人行为者没有被激发去从事核心代码的工作，那么一个由专注和热情的开发者组成的核心小组将永远不会形成。

这还会更深入。个人必须被激励去联系和合作以 "传播 "该币。狗币的生死取决于其销售理由的能力：高于眼前利益的东西，激励人们采取行动。这个信息必须能够在一段时间内保持势头。

Dogecoin已经成功地做到了这一点。虽然是在开玩笑中构思的，但Dogecoin有一个严肃的意图。正如ibtimes的大卫-吉尔伯特（David Gilbert）所指出的，"Dogecoin被设想为反比特币"，现在比特币越来越被 "视为严肃的投资者和商人的玩物，如温克艾沃斯双胞胎"。

这种对一项严肃技术的滑稽做法是Dogecoin找到其利基并获得牵引的地方。正如吉尔伯特进一步指出的，"它没有把自己当回事，它没有被担心自己是否会变得富有的人使用"。

这一信息的长期潜力还有待观察。然而，在这个早期阶段，它已经显示出明显的激励能力。目标的明确性正在围绕Dogecoin缓慢而有机地形成。核心粉丝群已经存在，社会媒体的牵引力也已经实现。现在存在一个强大的跳板，用于下一步的增长。

Dogecoin的核心支持者必须被这一信息所激励，他们会去激励其他人。网络效应最终将占据主导地位。肯定会需要一个Dogecoin耶稣。

一个由广泛的统一目标驱动的社区将促进网络效应，这必然会产生品牌认可。对Dogecoin的品牌认可将导致贸易中的接受度。然后，市场机制将看到企业家们建立支付处理公司。这种公司对于与Dogecoin的互动是必要的。

成功的秘诀

Dogecoin要取代比特币成为领先的加密货币，将需要。1个克隆的中本聪，1个黑市，1个Dogecoin耶稣，2个支付处理器，一个有凝聚力的理由（用鼓舞人心的言辞爱抚），3盎司的基础设施，一撮核心开发人员的才能和一抹福音的热忱。放在烤箱里，在250度下烘烤5年。哦，对了，别忘了加水。

当然，所有这些都假设狗币需要精确地跟随比特币的脚步来复制它的成功。这不一定是真的。它可以开辟出自己的道路。然而，通过对正在萌芽的比特币生态系统的分析，一个公式出现了。Dogecoin将很好地遵循这个公式。这条路已经被打通了，为什么不呢？愿这个配方能激励其他一千种美味的代币崛起。

丝绸之路Dogecoindice
Tristan Winters
作者：特里斯坦-温特斯