2022.10.27 英国现在需要中国和英联邦

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给新首相的建议
杨荣文建议：英国应与亚洲的老朋友们重新建立联系
新加坡前外交部长认为英国现在需要中国和英联邦。

2022年10月27日



7月，我去剑桥的老学院参加一个特别的午餐。这所大学看起来比以前更好了。但当我事后询问如何前往我儿子作为初级医生实习的大雅茅斯时，很少有人能帮助我。大雅茅斯离这里只有118公里，但去那里需要乘坐缓慢、摇晃的火车。在这个海滨城市，几乎没有一个外国人，尽管居民们对我很友好。一个在海滨和他的孩子们一起钓螃蟹的人给了我一条鱼线，并在他离开时主动把它留给我。在那里的一天让我怀念起我在20世纪70年代离开的英国（尽管爱德华-希思的三天工作制）。但它也困扰着我，因为变化太少了。我想知道中国公司要花多长时间来改造这个国家摇摇欲坠的基础设施。

英国的经济遭受重创，政治混乱，要恢复其在世界上的地位没有捷径。该国最近的政治危机也无济于事。新任首相里希-苏纳克应该明白，恢复的旅程将是艰巨的。幸运的是，有许多被遗忘已久或被低估的老朋友，特别是在亚洲，他们可以成为愿意旅行的伙伴。


当英国人民在2016年投票赞成英国脱欧时，我的心为他们雀跃。我熟悉反对脱欧的经济论点，知道他们将不得不付出沉重的代价。然而，英国人民有一种自由奔放的精神，这种精神在欧洲从来没有完全得到满足。几个世纪以来，英国的外交政策就是要防止欧洲大陆上的任何势力变得过于强大。到公投那天，刚刚超过一半的英国选民认为，欧盟和布鲁塞尔已经变得如此。

英国今天的国际联系是由它在欧洲的位置和它作为帝国大国的历史所决定的。帝国改变了英国：看看今天的伦敦是多么的多元化。苏纳克先生的印度血统在全世界都受到了关注。这种多样性代表了一种社会转变，这种转变将持续下去。英国的帝国也改变了那些曾经的殖民地。我们可能对英国的帝国遗产各持己见，但我们都知道，这种遗产中有些是好的。英联邦是一个校友会，它将领导人和部长们定期聚集在一起，气氛融洽，似乎没有取得任何重大成就。但它仍然具有重要意义，法语国家要求加入就说明了这一点。李光耀从未出席过联合国大会，但他在担任新加坡总理的多年里从未错过任何一次英联邦政府首脑会议。苏纳克先生不应低估英联邦国家对英国人民的善意。

当英国在1973年加入欧洲经济共同体（eu的前身）时，英联邦有一种感觉，即英国已经背弃了它。随着英国脱欧，人们感觉英国现在可能再次重视我们。印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国和斯里兰卡应该是最重要的，因为它们的规模和向英国输送的移民数量。其次是英联邦的21个非洲成员国，它们都将从与一个良性的英国加强关系中受益。马来西亚和新加坡也是英国的天然朋友。当英国宣布脱欧时，我的直接反应是建议新加坡政府的老同事与英国进行自由贸易协定的谈判。


英国要想从英联邦关系中获得繁荣，必须改变基本态度，并从根本上将其人力和财政资源重新分配到新的（实际上是旧的）方向。伦敦应该在重振英联邦的过程中发挥主导作用。查尔斯国王作为英联邦的新首脑，应该发出改变方向的信号。然而，像他的母亲一样，他不应该对成员国说教。他还应该对所有英联邦国家的政府首脑保持不失礼节的态度。

英国也需要从长计议其与中国的关系。1997年香港回归中国是不可避免的，但也是痛苦的；中国在2020年出台的《国家安全法》更是如此；但生活还在继续，香港对英国仍然很重要。香港人仍然珍视他们与英国的联系；北京可能不喜欢这样，但如果双边关系得到良好修复，它将容忍这种怀旧情绪。英国在香港的经济利益并非不重要。根据香港政府的统计，2020年英国在香港的对外直接投资（fdi）存量为760亿英镑，占英国对外直接投资总支出的4.6%。

大卫-卡梅伦的政府是务实的，是欧盟国家中第一个公开与美国决裂的国家，并于2015年成为中国亚洲基础设施银行倡议的一部分。但在美国的压力下，英国也对华为采取了行动，尽管通信专家认为对国家安全的风险是可控的。严峻的现实是，英国需要中国多于其他国家。没有人民币，伦敦市处于不利地位，因为在中国境外流通的人民币将继续增长，并成为另一种储备货币和国际贸易货币。

指望中国按照西方希望的方式改变是不现实的。中国共产党最近召开的五年一次的代表大会已经明确了这一点。然而，与中国建立更好的关系是符合英国人民的利益的。尽管有帝国主义的遗产，但中国人对英国的善意比大多数英国人意识到的要多。威廉-莎士比亚的话经常被引用。徐志摩1928年的诗作《再别康桥》至今仍令人回味。

英国必须在其国家利益和与美国的特殊关系之间取得平衡。英国对中国的看法需要时间来重新扭转。当符合自身利益，而不是因为美国或西方的压力，中国会逐渐改变其行为。英国通过独立行动获得中国和英联邦的更多尊重。■
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杨荣文在1988年至2011年期间是新加坡国会议员，在2004年至2011年期间担任该国的外交部长。



Advice for a new prime minister
Britain should renew ties with old friends in Asia, advises George Yeo
Singapore’s former foreign minister thinks Britain now needs both China and the Commonwealth

Oct 27th 2022

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In july i visited my old college in Cambridge for a special lunch. The college looked better than ever. But when I asked afterwards how to travel to Great Yarmouth, where my son was interning as a junior doctor, few could help me. Great Yarmouth is only 118km away but getting there requires a slow, rickety train ride. There was hardly a foreigner in the seaside town, though the inhabitants were friendly to me. A man on the waterfront fishing for crabs with his children gave me a line and offered to leave it with me when he left. My day there made me nostalgic for the Britain I left in the 1970s (Edward Heath’s three-day week notwithstanding). But it also bothered me that too little had changed. I wondered how long it would take for Chinese companies to revamp the country’s creaking infrastructure.

With its bruised economy and disruptive politics, there is no shortcut to recovering Britain’s standing in the world. The country’s recent political crises have hardly helped. The new prime minister, Rishi Sunak, should appreciate that the journey to recovery will be arduous. Fortunately, there are many old friends too-long forgotten or underrated, particularly in Asia, who can be willing travel companions.


When the British people voted in favour of Brexit in 2016, my heart leapt for them. I was familiar with the economic arguments against Brexit and aware that they would have to pay a heavy price. There is, however, a free-spiritedness in the British people which was never fully at ease in Europe. For centuries, British foreign policy was to prevent any power on the continent from becoming too dominant. By the day of the referendum just over half of British voters felt that the eu and Brussels had become so.

Britain’s international links today are shaped both by its location in Europe and by its history as an imperial power. The empire changed Britain: just look at how diverse London is today. Mr Sunak’s Indian heritage is greeted with interest all over the world. This diversity represents a social shift that is set to stay. Britain’s empire has also changed those once colonised. We may each have a critique of Britain’s imperial legacy, but we all know that some of that legacy is for the good. The Commonwealth is an alumni association which brings leaders and ministers regularly together in bonhomie, seemingly without accomplishing anything serious. It holds significance nonetheless, as shown by the requests of Francophone countries to join. Lee Kuan Yew never attended the un General Assembly, but he never missed a single Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in his many years as Singapore’s prime minister. Mr Sunak should not underestimate the goodwill for the British people in the Commonwealth.

When Britain joined the European Economic Community, the eu’s forebear, in 1973, there was a feeling in the Commonwealth that the country had turned its back on it. With Brexit, there is a sense that Britain may now value us again. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka should be the most important owing to their size and to the number of immigrants they have sent to Britain. Next in significance are the 21 African members of the Commonwealth, all of whom would benefit from stronger relations with a benign Britain. Malaysia and Singapore are natural friends for the country, too. When Brexit was announced, my immediate reaction was to advise old colleagues in Singapore’s government to negotiate a Free Trade Agreement with Britain.


For Britain to prosper from its Commonwealth ties, there has to be a change in basic attitude and a fundamental reallocation of its human and financial resources in new (really, old) directions. London should play a leading role in the reinvigoration of the Commonwealth. King Charles, as the new head of the Commonwealth, should signal a change in direction. However, like his mother, he should never preach to member countries. He should also be unfailingly courteous to all Commonwealth heads of government.

Britain also needs to take a long view of its relationship with China. The return of Hong Kong to China in 1997 was unavoidable but painful; China’s introduction of the National Security Law in 2020 even more so; but life goes on and Hong Kong will remain important to Britain. Hong Kongers still cherish their links to Britain; Beijing may not like that but it will tolerate such nostalgia if bilateral relations are in good repair. Britain’s economic interests in Hong Kong are not insubstantial. According to Hong Kong Government statistics, the outward stock of foreign direct investment (fdi) from the UK in Hong Kong in 2020 was £76bn—4.6% of total UK outward fdi spending.

David Cameron’s government was pragmatic and the first among eu countries publicly to break ranks with America and become part of China’s Asian Infrastructure Bank Initiative in 2015. But under American pressure, Britain has also taken action against Huawei even though communications experts thought the risk to national security was manageable. The stark reality is that Britain needs China more than the other way around. Without the yuan the City of London is disadvantaged because the yuan in circulation outside China will continue to grow and become another reserve currency and an international currency of trade.

It is unrealistic to expect China to change in the way the West wants it to. The Chinese Communist Party’s recent five-yearly congress has made that clear. Yet a better relationship with China is in the interest of the British people. Despite the legacy of imperialism, there is more goodwill for Britain in China than most Britishers realise. William Shakespeare is frequently quoted. Xu Zhimo’s poem of 1928, “Farewell to Cambridge,” is still evocative.

Britain has to strike a balance between its national interest and its special relationship with America. It will take time for Britain’s view of China to turn around again. China will change its behaviour gradually when it is in its own interest and not because America or the West pressure it to. Britain gets more respect from China and the Commonwealth by acting independently. ■
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George Yeo was a member of Singapore’s Parliament between 1988 and 2011 and served as the country’s foreign minister between 2004 and 2011.