2021.06.21美国人正在成群结队地辞掉工作

shiyi18

Daily chart
Americans are quitting their jobs in droves
It is a subtle indication of optimism about the economy

Jun 21st 2021

BEWARE THE simple solution to a complex problem. In recent weeks at least 25 states, all with Republican governors, have cut off federal unemployment benefits. This is in spite of the fact that the programmes in question are fully funded to early September and cost the states nothing. Kim Reynolds, Iowa’s governor, blamed the payments for “discouraging people from returning to work”. In fact, argues a report from Morgan Stanley, a bank, it is likely that those benefits are “no more of a factor than other impediments” that stymie the return of workers to their old jobs. Child care is harder to come by than before the pandemic, and employees with health concerns may remain wary about returning to full-time in-person work.



Whatever the reason, America’s labour market is tighter than it has been in years. Workers are quitting jobs at rates not seen this century. In April, according to preliminary data from the Department of Labour, 2.7% of the workforce quit their jobs—well above the previous peaks of 2.4%, briefly reached in 2001 and 2019. Though they have been rising for years, resignation rates were especially high in retail and hospitality, two sectors badly affected by the pandemic as people stopped travelling and did much of their shopping online.

There is no evidence of a massive wave moving from office to sofa. Job openings in April hit a new record of 9.3m; employers hired 6.1m people, about as many as were hired in March. Accommodation and food services—a subsector of the broader hospitality sector—boasted more openings and hired more people than any other sector. Competition for workers has grown fierce: restaurant chains including Chipotle, Olive Garden and McDonald’s all plan to raise wages. Non-managerial wages in the hospitality sector hit a record $15.70 per hour in April.

For the Biden administration, the salary rises are both welcome and worrying. They are welcome because Mr Biden has long advocated more power and leverage for workers. Higher wages—along with quit rates, a tacit and widespread sign of faith in the economy—indicate that they have more of both. They are also worrying because rising wages and prices could presage a long-lasting inflationary surge, which might leave workers no better off in real terms.



每日图表
美国人正在成群结队地辞掉工作
这是对经济乐观的一个微妙迹象

2021年6月21日



警惕一个复杂问题的简单解决方案。最近几周，至少有25个州，都有共和党州长，切断了联邦失业福利。尽管这些方案的资金在9月初之前都是充足的，而且对各州来说没有任何损失，但这仍然是一个事实。爱荷华州州长金-雷诺兹（Kim Reynolds）指责这些款项 "阻碍了人们重返工作岗位"。事实上，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）银行的一份报告认为，这些福利很可能 "并不比其他阻碍因素更重要"，这些因素阻碍了工人返回他们的旧工作。与大流行之前相比，儿童护理更难获得，有健康问题的员工可能仍然对返回全职工作持谨慎态度。



不管是什么原因，美国的劳动力市场比多年来都要紧张。工人们正在以本世纪未见的速度辞去工作。根据劳工部的初步数据，4月份，2.7%的劳动力辞职--远高于2001年和2019年短暂达到的2.4%的以往峰值。虽然多年来一直在上升，但零售业和酒店业的辞职率特别高，这两个行业受到大流行病的严重影响，因为人们停止了旅行，并在网上进行大部分购物。

没有证据表明有大规模的浪潮从办公室转移到沙发上。4月份的职位空缺创下了930万的新纪录；雇主雇用了610万人，与3月份雇用的人数差不多。住宿和餐饮服务--更广泛的酒店业的一个子行业--比其他任何行业都有更多的职位空缺和雇用人员。对工人的竞争越来越激烈：包括Chipotle、Olive Garden和麦当劳在内的连锁餐厅都计划提高工资。4月份，酒店业的非管理人员工资达到了创纪录的每小时15.70美元。

对于拜登政府来说，工资的增长既受欢迎又令人担忧。它们是受欢迎的，因为拜登先生长期以来一直主张为工人提供更多的权力和杠杆作用。更高的工资--连同退出率--一种对经济有信心的默示和广泛的迹象--表明他们拥有更多的这两方面。它们也令人担忧，因为工资和物价的上涨可能预示着长期的通货膨胀激增，这可能使工人的实际情况没有改善。