2022.02.24 俄罗斯开战，商品价格大涨

shiyi18

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Commodity prices jump as Russia goes to war
But a potential boost for its exporters will not offset damage to its economy
Feb 24th 2022


Egypt is not an obvious victim of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But as the world’s biggest consumer of wheat, much of which is grown in Russia and Ukraine, it may find itself caught in the crossfire. Combined, the two countries export almost a third of the world’s supply. Egyptians, along with other global consumers, now face higher prices. By the morning of February 24th, when Russia’s invasion began, wheat prices had risen by 20% since the start of the year. Investors are fearful that sanctions and conflict might disrupt global supply.

Wheat is not the only commodity to have climbed in price. Russia provides Europe with much of its fuel: it is the world’s second-largest exporter of oil and the biggest exporter of natural gas. Energy prices have spiked accordingly. Oil prices jumped above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 on February 24th, before falling back down again. European natural gas prices shot up by 50% on the day, which will affect other markets. The share prices of gas-tanker manufacturers rose after Germany mothballed the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, built to carry more Russian gas to Europe, on February 22nd. Investors reckon that the continent will need more tankers as it increases its reliance on liquefied natural gas.


Russia’s presence in mining has also sent metal prices skyward. In 2020 the country produced 43% of the world’s palladium, a component of catalytic converters in cars. The metal’s price has risen by 23% this year. Russia also produces 11% of the world’s supply of nickel and a smaller share of aluminium and copper.

Higher commodity prices could boost Russia’s export earnings—as long as sanctions allow other countries to buy from Russia. That benefit will not outweigh the damage being done to Russia’s economy, reflected in a falling stockmarket and currency. The stockmarket closed down by 38% on February 24th and has lost half its value this year. The rouble has fallen by 12% against the dollar. But Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, may take some comfort in the knowledge that his people are not the only ones hurt by his actions. ■


每日图表
俄罗斯开战，商品价格大涨
但对其出口商的潜在提振并不能抵消对其经济的损害
2022年2月24日


埃及不是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的明显受害者。但作为世界上最大的小麦消费国，其中大部分是在俄罗斯和乌克兰种植的，它可能会发现自己被卷入交火。这两个国家的出口量加起来几乎占世界供应量的三分之一。埃及人和其他全球消费者一起，现在面临着更高的价格。到2月24日上午，当俄罗斯的入侵开始时，小麦价格自今年年初以来已经上涨了20%。投资者担心，制裁和冲突可能会扰乱全球供应。

小麦并不是唯一价格攀升的商品。俄罗斯为欧洲提供大部分燃料：它是世界第二大石油出口国和最大的天然气出口国。能源价格也相应飙升。2月24日，油价自2014年以来首次跃升至每桶100美元以上，然后再次回落。欧洲天然气价格当天暴涨50%，这将影响其他市场。2月22日，德国关闭了为向欧洲输送更多俄罗斯天然气而修建的北溪2号管道后，天然气运输船制造商的股价上涨。投资者估计，随着欧洲大陆对液化天然气的依赖程度增加，它将需要更多的油轮。


俄罗斯在采矿业的存在也使金属价格飙升。2020年，该国生产的钯金占世界总量的43%，是汽车催化转化器的组成部分。今年，这种金属的价格已经上涨了23%。俄罗斯还生产世界上11%的镍供应，以及较小份额的铝和铜。

只要制裁允许其他国家从俄罗斯购买商品，商品价格上涨就能提高俄罗斯的出口收入。这种好处不会超过对俄罗斯经济造成的损害，这反映在股票市场和货币的下跌上。股票市场在2月24日收盘时下跌了38%，今年已经损失了一半的价值。卢布对美元的汇率已经下跌了12%。但俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔-普京可能会感到一些安慰，因为他知道他的人民并不是唯一被他的行为所伤害的人。■