2022.02.25 俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的军事差距是巨大的

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The military gap between Russia and Ukraine is vast
But not as wide as it may appear
FEB 25TH 2022

As russia continues to wage war in Ukraine, the fighting has not been as one-sided as might have been expected. Despite being outgunned and outnumbered, Ukraine inflicted more casualties in 24 hours than Russia suffered over eight years of engagements in Syria. Ukraine’s anti-tank weapons have presented serious resistance to Russia’s advances in the north and east. This may strike some as surprising. On paper, Ukraine’s military budget is smaller than that of city-state Singapore.

But nominal spending figures dramatically understate some countries’ capabilities, by failing to account for the fact that military costs vary. To compare capabilities fairly, Peter Robertson of the University of Western Australia has devised “military purchasing power parity (PPP)”. This adjusts defence budgets for how they are allocated among wages, operating costs and equipment, and how local prices vary in each of these areas.

Use these figures, and the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian spending shrinks. Wages in both Ukraine and Russia are lower than in America, the benchmark for the calculations. Construction and maintenance are cheaper as well. But Ukraine spends a higher share of its budget on wages—which are lower than in America and Russia—than it does on kit, which is more even in cost. In nominal terms its total defence spending is 9.6% of Russia’s. Adjusted for costs, that figure more than doubles to 20.6%.

Military PPP ratios are not perfect. Some guesswork is required when estimating both total spending and the proportion of resources going to different areas. Aid from outside, often given in kind, is hard to score. Some military assets provide value for years, and some, such as nuclear weapons, have a quality all of their own. But so, too, does leadership—and the will to fight.



每日图表
俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的军事差距是巨大的
但并不像看上去那么大
2022年2月25日



随着俄罗斯继续在乌克兰发动战争，战斗并不像人们预期的那样一边倒。尽管武器和人数不足，但乌克兰在24小时内造成的伤亡比俄罗斯在叙利亚八年的交战中造成的伤亡还要多。乌克兰的反坦克武器对俄罗斯在北部和东部的推进形成了严重阻力。这可能会让一些人感到惊讶。从纸面上看，乌克兰的军事预算比城市国家新加坡的预算要小。

但名义上的支出数字大大低估了一些国家的能力，因为没有考虑到军事成本的变化。为了公平地比较能力，西澳大利亚大学的Peter Robertson设计了 "军事购买力平价（PPP）"。这将国防预算调整为如何在工资、运营成本和设备之间分配，以及当地价格在每个领域的变化。

使用这些数字，俄罗斯与乌克兰的支出比例就会缩小。乌克兰和俄罗斯的工资都比美国低，而美国是计算的基准。建筑和维修也更便宜。但是，乌克兰用于工资的预算份额--低于美国和俄罗斯--高于用于装备的预算份额，而装备的成本更为平均。按名义价值计算，乌克兰的国防开支总额是俄罗斯的9.6%。按成本调整后，这一数字增加了一倍多，达到20.6%。

军事上的购买力平价比率并不完美。在估计总支出和用于不同领域的资源比例时，需要进行一些猜测。来自外部的援助，往往是以实物形式提供的，是很难评分的。一些军事资产可以提供多年的价值，而一些资产，如核武器，有其自身的质量。但是，领导力和战斗意志也是如此。