2022.03.02 俄罗斯的入侵是可以预见的

shiyi18

Lithuania’s prime minister, Ingrida Simonyte, says Russia’s invasion was predictable
The West was too greedy for Russian money and too delusional in its negotiations with a pathological liar

Mar 2nd 2022


All this was bound to happen. Vladimir Putin’s war on Chechnya did not serve as a wake-up call for the West in 1999. Neither did the Kremlin’s cyber-assault on Estonia in 2007, its war on Georgia in 2008, the illegal annexation of Crimea, nor the start of its military aggression against Ukraine in 2014—all of which Russia denies. Numerous, blatant assassinations of “inconvenient” witnesses, opponents and journalists rang alarm bells, especially when carried out on European soil. But Western leaders pressed the snooze button time and again.

Western democracies introduced sanctions and expelled spooks disguised as diplomats. We expressed concern and condemned—sometimes, in the strongest possible terms—Russia’s habitual acts of aggression. We rebuked violations of the territorial integrity of independent states by Russia or its proxies. Many thought this would somehow suffice as a face-saving alternative to real action that would be costly for our economies and that might provoke the aggressor.


The West continued to do too little, too late. We blacklisted officials but we kept building pipelines. We introduced sanctions but turned a blind eye to the companies circumventing them. Western politicians danced with Mr Putin (some of them literally) and retired to chair the boards of Russian companies. These firms funded the Kremlin’s arms race and diverted billions to Mr Putin’s entourage.

The West allowed Mr Putin’s people to keep their fortunes in Western banks and spend them on Western education for their kids, villas and penthouses in Western resorts for their wives and five-star holidays with their mistresses on Western rivieras. All the while the Kremlin decried the rotten decadence and moral degradation of the West. Pecunia non olet: money doesn’t smell. Or perhaps, to the contrary—Russian money smelled too good.

We cared too much about separating sports and politics, or culture and politics—and too little about separating freedom of speech and propaganda, political correctness and hard-headed analysis. “Crisis in Ukraine”, “Russia begins military aggression”, “Ukraine-Russia war”—these were the major taglines just a week ago.

No, the crisis is not in Ukraine—it is in Russia, and it has been deepening for decades. Russia’s aggression began long ago, and not just against Ukraine. The Kremlin used energy as a means of political pressure and employed cyber-attacks, hostile propaganda, proxy wars and, eventually, missiles. What we witness now is not the Ukraine-Russia war but the continuation of Russia’s war against Ukraine that started in 2014. It was de facto declared on the entire West in December 2021, when Mr Putin issued his ultimatums.


In Lithuania we saw Russia’s influence spreading dangerously and a coalition of dictators being built. The West has not recognised the legitimacy of Alexander Lukashenko, who claims he once again won an election in Belarus in 2020. Rather he stole the election and cracked down in a draconian way on the peaceful protests that followed. He had Mr Putin’s backing and now he is complicit in Russia’s aggression. I struggle to understand why Western politicians and media still refer to Mr Lukashenko as the president of Belarus. At the same time we saw that the opposition was being systematically wiped out of elections in Russia—but the West never dared to question Mr Putin’s legitimacy out loud. Democracies die in silence, they say. In silence, too, dictatorships grow.

As Russia massed its troops on Ukraine’s border the West tried to come to an agreement with Mr Putin. But diplomacy is impossible with a pathological liar who gives promises he never means to keep. The West hoped to negotiate a way out of this war, but negotiations work only when both sides want peace.

For a democratic leader, human life is more precious than anything else. For a dictator, no human sacrifice is too great a barrier to ambition. Russia’s neighbours, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland, have been trying to explain this for a long time. At times we have been ridiculed as solely focused on this issue. We kept warning that dictators only understand the language of brutal power—be it economic, or better yet, military—and take anything other than that as a sign of weakness that encourages them, and does not deter them. We have warned of growing security threats not just to our region but also to the eu and nato—and of the need to strengthen our defence.

It does not make me happy that countries in my region were right to warn others of the Russian threat. I wish we had been proven wrong instead. But what cheers me is that Ukraine is fighting back more successfully than many—except Ukrainians themselves—believed it ever could. I am also relieved that the West has awoken. It is too late to save the 14,400 Ukrainians estimated to have perished in Donbas between April 2014 and December 2021, but it is not too late to help Ukraine save its sovereignty and to protect Western civilisation.

I am proud that we are witnessing unprecedented unity among disparate democracies. I am also proud that our support to Ukraine and response to Russia is of unparalleled proportions, swifter than ever. At last we are investing more in our own security as we realise that neutrality is tantamount to self-deception.

It is crucial that we do not press the snooze button now. We must continue, increase and expedite lethal aid to Ukraine. We must disconnect all Russian banks, not just some, from swift to achieve the full effect of sanctions now—not after a year. And all the economic sanctions we impose on Russia must be imposed on Belarus too. The regime there assists Mr Putin and we need to prevent Russia from circumventing sanctions by using Belarus.

As history unfolds before our eyes, I am glad that an increasing number of countries are choosing to be on the right side of it. I urge all those around the world who still hesitate to join us while it still matters. And when Ukraine and democracy win this war, I hope that the West will never fall asleep again. Thank you for your miscalculation, Mr Putin!■
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Ingrida Simonyte is Lithuania’s prime minister.



立陶宛总理英格丽达-西蒙尼特说俄罗斯的入侵是可以预见的
西方国家对俄罗斯的钱太贪婪了，在与一个病态骗子的谈判中太妄想了

2022年3月2日



这一切是注定要发生的。1999年，弗拉基米尔-普京对车臣的战争并没有给西方敲响警钟。克里姆林宫2007年对爱沙尼亚的网络攻击、2008年对格鲁吉亚的战争、对克里米亚的非法吞并，以及2014年开始对乌克兰的军事侵略，都没有给西方敲响警钟--俄罗斯否认了这些。许多公然暗杀 "不方便 "的证人、反对者和记者的行为敲响了警钟，尤其是在欧洲土地上实施的时候。但西方领导人一次又一次地按下了 "打盹 "按钮。

西方民主国家实施了制裁，并驱逐了伪装成外交官的特务。我们对俄罗斯的习惯性侵略行为表示关切和谴责--有时是以最强烈的措辞。我们谴责了俄罗斯或其代理人对独立国家领土完整的侵犯。许多人认为，这在某种程度上足以作为一种面子上的选择，而不是采取对我们的经济来说代价高昂且可能激怒侵略者的真正行动。


西方国家继续做得太少，太晚。我们把官员列入黑名单，但我们继续建造管道。我们实行制裁，但对规避制裁的公司视而不见。西方政客与普京先生共舞（其中一些是真的），退休后担任俄罗斯公司的董事会主席。这些公司为克里姆林宫的军备竞赛提供资金，并将数十亿资金转给普京先生的随从人员。

西方允许普京先生的人把他们的财富存在西方银行，并把它们花在他们的孩子的西方教育上，为他们的妻子提供西方度假村的别墅和顶层公寓，以及与他们的情妇在西方海滨的五星级度假。与此同时，克里姆林宫谴责西方的腐朽堕落和道德沦丧。Pecunia non olet：钱是没有味道的。或者说，恰恰相反，俄罗斯的钱闻起来太香了。

我们太在乎把体育和政治分开，或者文化和政治分开--太不在乎把言论自由和宣传、政治正确和强硬的分析分开。"乌克兰危机"、"俄罗斯开始军事侵略"、"乌克兰-俄罗斯战争"--这些是一周前的主要标语。

不，危机不在乌克兰--它在俄罗斯，而且几十年来一直在加深。俄罗斯的侵略很久以前就开始了，而且不仅仅是针对乌克兰。克里姆林宫利用能源作为政治压力的手段，并采用网络攻击、敌对宣传、代理战争以及最终的导弹。我们现在看到的不是乌克兰-俄罗斯战争，而是俄罗斯从2014年开始的对乌克兰战争的延续。2021年12月，当普京先生发布最后通牒时，它事实上是对整个西方宣布的。


在立陶宛，我们看到俄罗斯的影响力在危险地蔓延，一个独裁者的联盟正在建立。西方没有承认亚历山大-卢卡申科的合法性，他声称自己在2020年再次赢得了白俄罗斯的选举。相反，他窃取了选举，并以严厉的方式镇压了随后发生的和平抗议活动。他有普京先生的支持，现在他是俄罗斯侵略的同谋。我很难理解为什么西方政治家和媒体仍然把卢卡申科先生称为白俄罗斯总统。与此同时，我们看到反对派在俄罗斯的选举中被系统地消灭了，但西方从来不敢大声质疑普京先生的合法性。他们说，民主国家在沉默中死亡。在沉默中，独裁者也会成长。

当俄罗斯在乌克兰边境集结军队时，西方试图与普京先生达成协议。但是，对于一个病态的骗子来说，外交是不可能的，因为他给出的承诺从来就没有想过要兑现。西方国家希望通过谈判摆脱这场战争，但谈判只有在双方都希望和平的情况下才能发挥作用。

对于一个民主领导人来说，人的生命比任何东西都要珍贵。对一个独裁者来说，任何人类的牺牲都不是野心的巨大障碍。俄罗斯的邻国立陶宛、拉脱维亚、爱沙尼亚和波兰，长期以来一直在努力解释这一点。有时，我们被讥讽为只关注这个问题。我们不断警告说，独裁者只理解残酷的权力语言--无论是经济上的，还是更好的，军事上的--并把除此之外的任何东西都视为鼓励他们的软弱的标志，而不是阻止他们。我们已经警告说，安全威胁不仅对我们的地区，而且对欧盟和国家也越来越大，需要加强我们的防御。

这并没有让我感到高兴，我所在地区的国家警告其他国家注意俄罗斯的威胁是正确的。我希望我们反而被证明是错误的。但令我高兴的是，乌克兰的反击比许多人--除了乌克兰人自己--相信它能做到的更成功。我还感到欣慰的是，西方国家已经觉醒。拯救2014年4月至2021年12月期间估计在顿巴斯丧生的14400名乌克兰人已经太晚了，但帮助乌克兰拯救其主权和保护西方文明还不算太晚。

我感到自豪的是，我们正在见证不同的民主国家之间前所未有的团结。我还感到自豪的是，我们对乌克兰的支持和对俄罗斯的反应是无与伦比的，比以往任何时候都更迅速。我们终于对我们自己的安全进行了更多的投资，因为我们意识到，中立等同于自欺欺人。

至关重要的是，我们现在不要按下 "打盹 "按钮。我们必须继续、增加并加快对乌克兰的致命援助。我们必须切断所有俄罗斯银行，而不仅仅是一些银行的联系，以便现在就实现制裁的全部效果，而不是在一年之后。我们对俄罗斯实施的所有经济制裁也必须对白俄罗斯实施。那里的政权协助普京先生，我们需要防止俄罗斯通过利用白俄罗斯来规避制裁。

随着历史在我们眼前展开，我很高兴越来越多的国家选择站在历史的正确一边。我敦促世界上所有仍然犹豫不决的人，在仍然重要的时候加入我们。而当乌克兰和民主赢得这场战争时，我希望西方将不再沉睡。谢谢你的误判，普京先生！■。
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英格丽达-西蒙尼特是立陶宛的总理。