2022.03.05 西方的制裁已经震撼了俄罗斯的金融体系

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The bear’s market
Western sanctions have rocked Russia’s financial system
But the damage so far pales in comparison with the financial crisis of 1998
MAR 5TH 2022

The sanctions are unprecedented, but the results are grimly familiar. After Western countries froze Russia’s central-bank reserves and banned some of its banks from swift, a payment network, the prices of Russian assets plummeted.

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The steep sell-off represented the country’s fourth financial crisis in 25 years. In 1998 Russia defaulted on its debt and stopped propping up its currency. A decade later, amid a global financial crisis, Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Georgia. And in 2014 investors fled Russia again, following his annexation of Crimea.

Since Mr Putin began massing forces on Ukraine’s border, the rouble has lost 33% of its value against the dollar. The currency has fallen faster than in 2008 and 2014, although its decline so far is not as large as that of 2014. Russia’s financial woes are not yet as severe as in 1998, when the rouble plunged by 70%. But another debt default could be similarly devastating.


Mr Putin has spent years preparing for a financial stand-off with the West. Since 2015 the value of Russia’s central-bank reserves has risen by 71%, with most of the increase in the form of gold or Chinese yuan. The bank has also cut the share of its reserves held in America and France. Nonetheless, 70% remain in countries that are imposing sanctions, limiting Russia’s ability to support the rouble. Had the government not forced exporters to sell 80% of their foreign currency and banned foreigners from selling Russian assets, the rouble would have weakened even more.


The only silver lining for Russia is that the prices of its commodity exports have surged. European governments carved out energy sales from the sanctions, letting customers continue buying natural gas—whose spot price has more than doubled—from Russia. Revenue from oil and gas funded a third of Russia’s government budget in 2021, enough for two years of military spending at the pre-war rate.

In theory, energy firms should benefit from higher prices. Russia’s stockmarket has been closed this week. However, the value of the London-listed shares of four Russian oil and gas companies, whose domestic shares jointly make up a third of the Moscow exchange’s market capitalisation, fell by 97% before trading was suspended. Even if these firms do reap a windfall, investors do not expect it to wind up lining the pockets of foreign shareholders. ■

Sources: Bloomberg; Bank of Russia; Haver Analytics; The Economist



熊的市场
西方的制裁已经震撼了俄罗斯的金融体系
但与1998年的金融危机相比，到目前为止的损失是微不足道的
2022年3月5日

制裁是史无前例的，但其结果却是人们所熟悉的严峻形势。在西方国家冻结俄罗斯的中央银行储备并禁止其部分银行进入支付网络Swift之后，俄罗斯资产的价格暴跌。

急剧的抛售是该国25年来的第四次金融危机。1998年，俄罗斯出现债务违约，并停止了对其货币的支持。十年后，在全球金融危机中，弗拉基米尔-普京下令入侵格鲁吉亚。2014年，在他吞并克里米亚之后，投资者再次逃离俄罗斯。



自从普京先生开始在乌克兰边境集结军队以来，卢布对美元的价值已经下降了33%。该货币的下跌速度超过了2008年和2014年，尽管到目前为止其跌幅没有2014年那么大。俄罗斯的金融困境还没有像1998年那样严重，当时卢布暴跌了70%。但另一次债务违约也可能具有同样的破坏性。



普京先生多年来一直在为与西方的金融对峙做准备。自2015年以来，俄罗斯中央银行的储备价值已经上升了71%，其中大部分是以黄金或人民币的形式增加的。该银行还削减了其在美国和法国持有的储备份额。尽管如此，70%的储备仍在实施制裁的国家，限制了俄罗斯支持卢布的能力。如果不是政府强迫出口商出售80%的外汇，并禁止外国人出售俄罗斯资产，卢布会更加疲软。


对俄罗斯来说，唯一的一线生机是其商品出口价格飙升。欧洲政府将能源销售从制裁中分离出来，让客户继续从俄罗斯购买天然气--其现货价格已经翻了一番。2021年，石油和天然气的收入为俄罗斯政府预算的三分之一提供了资金，足以满足战前两年的军事开支。

从理论上讲，能源公司应该从更高的价格中受益。俄罗斯的股票市场本周已经关闭。然而，四家俄罗斯石油和天然气公司在伦敦上市的股票价值在停牌前下跌了97%，这些公司的国内股票共同构成了莫斯科交易所市值的三分之一。即使这些公司真的获得了一笔意外之财，投资者也不希望它最终落入外国股东的口袋里。■

资料来源。彭博社；俄罗斯银行；Haver Analytics；《经济学人》。