2022.03.18 香港现在是大流行病的中心

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Hong Kong is now the centre of the pandemic
China worries that a broader wave will hit the mainland
Mar 18th 2022
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Hong kong, once famed for its low covid-19 count, is now recording the world’s highest death rate from the virus. The city is facing a shortage of coffins; morgues are overflowing with victims; hospitals are struggling to cope. On March 17th 279 deaths were recorded in the city of 7.4m people. The death rate is more than twice as high as at the peak of Britain’s second wave in early 2021. One model by researchers at the University of Hong Kong predicts more than 5,000 people could die of covid during this wave.

In the past few months the Omicron variant has swept through the Asia-Pacific region. But Hong Kong is an outlier in terms of deaths. Its case-fatality rate of 2% is more than ten times higher than those of New Zealand, Singapore and South Korea, where cases are also far above previous peaks. The rate in Hong Kong for unvaccinated people over 80 is 12%.

Hong Kong’s elderly have been slow to get vaccinated and have almost no natural immunity from past infection. There are many reasons for their vaccine hesitancy, not least the mixed messages the government gave out about the safety of jabs when they first came out and the authorities’ lacklustre effort to inoculate those in care homes. When Omicron first hit, around 65% of over-80s were unvaccinated. Even after recent drives to increase uptake, around 44% are still completely unprotected.


Until recently this low vaccination rate has been of little consequence thanks to strict “zero-covid” policies across China. But as the virus sweeps through Hong Kong and several Chinese provinces report outbreaks, it is an increasing cause for concern. On the mainland, at least 40m people are under some form of lockdown (though the authorities in some provinces prefer the term “life on pause” to “lockdown”). Relatively few people have natural immunity and China’s health system is not equipped to handle a large wave. Beijing may be worried about a broader wave on the mainland.



每日图表
香港现在是大流行病的中心
中国担心更广泛的浪潮会冲击大陆
2022年3月18日



香港曾因其较低的covid-19数量而闻名，现在正记录着世界上最高的病毒死亡率。这个城市正面临着棺材的短缺；停尸房充斥着受害者；医院正在努力应对。3月17日，这个拥有740万人口的城市记录了279起死亡。死亡率是2021年初英国第二波浪潮高峰时的两倍多。香港大学研究人员的一个模型预测，在这一波中，可能有超过5000人死于covid。

在过去的几个月里，Omicron变体已经席卷了亚太地区。但就死亡人数而言，香港是一个例外。其2%的病例死亡率比新西兰、新加坡和韩国高10倍以上，这些国家的病例也远远超过以前的高峰。在香港，80岁以上未接种疫苗的人的比率为12%。

香港的老年人接种疫苗的速度很慢，而且在过去的感染中几乎没有自然免疫力。他们对疫苗犹豫不决的原因有很多，尤其是政府在疫苗刚推出时对其安全性发出的混合信息，以及当局在为护理机构的人员接种疫苗方面缺乏努力。当Omicron首次出现时，大约65%的80岁以上的人没有接种疫苗。即使在最近努力提高接种率之后，仍有约44%的人完全没有受到保护。


直到最近，由于中国各地实行严格的 "零感染 "政策，这种低接种率还没有什么影响。但是，随着该病毒席卷香港，以及中国几个省份报告爆发疫情，它越来越引起人们的关注。在大陆，至少有4千万人处于某种形式的禁闭状态（尽管一些省份的当局更喜欢用 "暂停生活 "来代替 "禁闭"）。拥有天然免疫力的人相对较少，而且中国的卫生系统不具备处理大规模疫情的能力。北京可能担心大陆会出现更广泛的疫情。