2022.04.02匈牙利的菲迪兹党难以被赶走

shiyi18

Stacking the deck
A wild gerrymander makes Hungary’s Fidesz party hard to dislodge
Opposition voters are packed into a few large constituencies
APR 2ND 2022

In an upcoming election a populist conservative party is poised for victory. It leads polls by mid-single digits. It is also aided by gerrymandered districts, drawn after it won an election in 2010, which should secure its majority today even if its opponents get more votes. The party is not America’s Republicans, who lead polls by just two points and whose advantage in gerrymandering has dwindled. Instead, it is one that some Republicans cite as a model: Fidesz in Hungary, led by Viktor Orban, which faces voters on April 3rd.

Hungary has a mixed-member parliament. Just over half of mps represent geographic districts; the rest come from party lists allocated in proportion to the national vote. Academics often praise this method. But Hungary’s version is warped.

First, rather than having independent experts draw districts, Fidesz drew them itself. Legislators in many American states do this, too. But in America, constituencies must have nearly equal numbers of people. In Hungary, by contrast, their populations can vary by up to 35%. This lets the party in power pack opposition voters into a few heavily populated districts, and spread out its own among lots of less-populous ones.


Fidesz has deployed this tactic deftly. When it took power in 2010, it fared similarly in the least- and most-populous districts. At the next election in 2014, after it re-drew the borders, its vote share was six percentage points higher in districts with fewer than 70,000 eligible voters than in those with at least 80,000. As a result, Fidesz won 91% of constituency seats and a two-thirds supermajority overall, despite getting just 45% of the vote. In 2018 it won 67% of seats again, with 49% of the vote.

This time, Fidesz’s rivals are better organised. Six parties have joined forces as the United Opposition. Had their votes been combined in 2018, Fidesz would have won only 104 of 199 seats. However, many voters who in 2018 backed Jobbik, the only conservative party in the alliance, have defected. As a result, Fidesz leads polls released in March by 50%-44% on average.


This lead is too small to ensure that Fidesz will get the most votes. But thanks to gerrymandering, the opposition probably needs 54% of votes to control parliament. Fidesz can hold on with just 43%. By contrast, at the peak of American Republicans’ gerrymandering in 2012, they needed 48% to win the House of Representatives. ■

Sources: The Constituency-Level Elections Archive; The Economist



堆积的甲板
疯狂的选区划分使匈牙利的菲迪兹党难以被赶走
反对派的选民被挤在几个大的选区里
2022年4月2日

在即将举行的选举中，一个民粹主义的保守党已经准备好取得胜利。它在民意调查中以个位数领先。该党在2010年赢得选举后划定的选区也为其提供了帮助，即使其对手获得更多选票，今天也应确保其多数席位。该党不是美国的共和党，他们在民调中仅领先两个百分点，其在划分选区方面的优势已经减少。相反，它是一个被一些共和党人引为典范的政党。由维克多-欧尔班(Viktor Orban)领导的匈牙利民主党(Fidesz)将于4月3日面对选民。

匈牙利有一个混合成员制的议会。仅有一半以上的议员代表地理区域；其余的议员来自按全国投票比例分配的政党名单。学者们经常赞扬这种方法。但匈牙利的版本是扭曲的。

首先，菲德斯没有让独立专家绘制选区，而是自己绘制。美国许多州的立法者也是这样做的。但在美国，选区的人数必须几乎相等。相反，在匈牙利，他们的人口可以相差高达35%。这使得执政党可以将反对派选民纳入少数人口密集的地区，而将自己的选民分散在许多人口较少的地区。


菲迪兹巧妙地运用了这种策略。2010年上台时，它在人口最少和最多的地区表现相似。在2014年的下一次选举中，在它重新划定边界后，它在合格选民少于7万人的地区的得票率比至少有8万人的地区高6个百分点。结果，尽管只获得了45%的选票，但菲德斯赢得了91%的选区席位和总体上三分之二的超级多数。2018年，它再次赢得67%的席位，得票率为49%。

这一次，菲迪兹的对手们组织得更好。六个政党联合起来成为联合反对派。如果他们的选票在2018年合在一起，菲迪兹将只赢得199个席位中的104个。然而，许多在2018年支持联盟中唯一的保守党Jobbik的选民已经叛变。因此，在3月份发布的民意调查中，菲德斯平均以50%-44%的比例领先。


这一领先优势太小，无法确保菲德斯将获得最多的选票。但由于选区划分的原因，反对派可能需要54%的选票来控制议会。菲迪兹只需43%就能坚持下去。相比之下，在2012年美国共和党人划分选区的高峰期，他们需要48%的选票才能赢得众议院。■

资料来源：《选区一级选举》。选区级选举档案；《经济学人》杂志