2022.04.04 谁是俄罗斯的支持者？

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Who are Russia’s supporters?
The West has presented a united front against the invasion of Ukraine. But many people live in countries sympathetic to Russia
Apr 4th 2022
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By invading ukraine, Vladimir Putin has divided the world. The West and its allies have presented a rare unified front against the Russian president’s attack. NATO is enjoying a surge of support within its member countries (and wannabe joiners). The EU has projected the role of a first-rate power. And co-ordinated efforts, including sanctions and banking restrictions, have punished Russia’s economy, at least in the short term. But from other countries Russia still enjoys some support. The Economist Intelligence Unit, our sister company, has measured government actions globally since the war broke out, and countries’ historical ties with Russia, to divide the world into three broad categories: governments that are West-leaning, Russia-leaning and neutral amid the conflict.

A total of 131 countries are against Russia, according to the analysis. Most rich ones in North America and Europe fall into this club. Even historically neutral governments, such as those in Finland, Sweden and Switzerland, have taken a decisive stance against the invasion. According to the EIU, the West-leaning camp accounts for more than 70% of the world’s GDP.

But together the countries opposing Russia account for only 36% of the world’s population. Around two-thirds of people live in countries whose governments are either neutral or Russian-leaning. China and India, which together account for around one-third of the global population, skew the results. The Chinese government, classified as Russia-leaning by the EIU, has avoided direct condemnation of Mr Putin’s actions and is unlikely to stand with the West. India’s government, classed as neutral, has increased its engagement with the Russian government, especially through discounted oil prices.



It is not just the governments of these hugely populous countries that are neutral or Russia-leaning. According to a survey in India conducted by YouGov, a pollster, in March, 40% of respondents approved of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Fifty-four per cent of those polled approved of Mr Putin’s leadership (compared with 63% who approved of Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president). No such data have been collected in China but online polls indicate greater support for Russia.

About 30% of the global population live in the 28 countries whose governments are classed by the EIU as leaning towards Russia. As well as China, these include such populous places as Pakistan and Ethiopia. For some, such as Eritrea and Syria, Russia is a key ally. Thirty-two governments have remained neutral, including Bangladesh’s, Brazil’s and India’s. Several developing countries see neutrality as the default foreign-policy choice, a legacy of the non-aligned movement formed during the cold war as a counterbalance against the world’s polarisation into two blocs.

Mr Putin’s campaign in Ukraine has met widespread condemnation in the West. Recent evidence of war crimes could see Russia lose further support internationally. But for now by no means does everyone regard him, and his country, as pariahs.



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谁是俄罗斯的支持者？
西方提出了一个反对入侵乌克兰的统一战线。但许多人生活在同情俄罗斯的国家中
2022年4月4日


通过入侵乌克兰，弗拉基米尔-普京分裂了世界。西方国家及其盟友对俄罗斯总统的攻击提出了一个罕见的统一战线。北约在其成员国（以及希望加入北约的国家）内部获得了大量的支持。欧盟发挥了第一流大国的作用。协调的努力，包括制裁和银行限制，至少在短期内惩罚了俄罗斯的经济。但是从其他国家来看，俄罗斯仍然得到了一些支持。我们的姐妹公司经济学人信息部衡量了战争爆发以来全球政府的行动，以及各国与俄罗斯的历史关系，将世界分为三大类：在冲突中倾向于西方的政府、倾向于俄罗斯的政府和中立的政府。

根据分析，总共有131个国家反对俄罗斯。北美和欧洲的大多数富裕国家都属于这个俱乐部。即使是历史上中立的政府，如芬兰、瑞典和瑞士的政府，也采取了反对入侵的决定性立场。根据EIU的数据，偏向西方的阵营占世界GDP的70%以上。

但反对俄罗斯的国家加起来只占世界人口的36%。大约有三分之二的人生活在政府中立或倾向于俄罗斯的国家。中国和印度共占全球人口的三分之一左右，使结果出现偏差。被EIU归类为俄罗斯倾向的中国政府避免直接谴责普京先生的行为，并且不太可能站在西方一边。被归类为中立的印度政府增加了与俄罗斯政府的接触，特别是通过折扣油价。



不仅仅是这些人口众多的国家的政府保持中立或倾向于俄罗斯。根据民调机构YouGov今年3月在印度进行的一项调查，40%的受访者赞同俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的行为。54%的受访者赞同普京先生的领导（相比之下，63%的受访者赞同乌克兰总统沃洛季米尔-泽伦斯基）。在中国没有收集到这样的数据，但网上的民意调查显示对俄罗斯的支持率更高。

全球约有30%的人口生活在28个国家，这些国家的政府被EIU归类为倾向于俄罗斯。除中国外，这些国家还包括巴基斯坦和埃塞俄比亚等人口众多的地方。对于一些国家，如厄立特里亚和叙利亚，俄罗斯是一个重要的盟友。有32个国家的政府保持中立，包括孟加拉国、巴西和印度。一些发展中国家将中立视为外交政策的默认选择，这是冷战时期形成的不结盟运动的遗产，是对世界两极化的平衡。

普京先生在乌克兰的行动在西方受到了广泛的谴责。最近的战争罪证据可能会使俄罗斯在国际上进一步失去支持。但现在，绝非所有人都把他和他的国家视为贱民。