2022.05.02 一个温和派对抗红色浪潮

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One Moderate Against the Red Wave
Tim Ryan might be a dream Democratic candidate in Ohio. But he will need a lot of luck.

By David Catanese
Tim Ryan
Joshua A. Bickel / The Columbus Dispatch / AP
MAY 2, 2022, 6 AM ET
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About the author: David Catanese is a senior politics writer in McClatchy’s Washington bureau.

If democratic strategists could engineer a candidate to test their approach to statewide campaigns in Ohio, the lab might pop out something very close to Tim Ryan. A high-school quarterback who grew up among the Irish and Italian working class in Appalachia’s Mahoning Valley, Ryan can mix comfortably with the kinds of small-town voters who are fleeing his party. Now in his 10th term in Congress, he also holds the experience to navigate tricky political terrain.

“I would argue that Tim Ryan is one of the most skilled candidates of his generation,” says Andrew Ginther, the Democratic mayor of Columbus. “There is no place in Ohio where Tim can go where he won’t connect with folks—whether it’s a church, a labor hall, a corporate boardroom.”


In his campaign for Ohio’s open U.S. Senate seat, Ryan has completed stops in every one of the state’s 88 counties and broken in-state fundraising records, centering his message on economic empowerment for communities left behind by the tech boom and globalization. In his first television ad of the campaign, he called out China half a dozen times in a refrain that could’ve come out of the mouth of a certain ex-president. A Republican strategist working on the race, who asked to remain anonymous so he wouldn’t be seen as praising an opponent, told me it was “the perfect message for Ohio.”

“I’ve not seen a Senate candidate more on message than him,” adds Justin Barasky, an Ohio native who ran Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown’s last campaign in the state.

But will any of it matter?

Political strategists love to invoke the refrain that candidates matter. And since the 2016 presidential election, a segment of the Democratic Party has pushed for politicians in the mold of Ryan, 48, to help the left regain ground in the Rust Belt and among the non-college-educated working class. Yet it’s not clear whether even the optimal Democratic candidate, conveying the most targeted message and running the smoothest campaign, will be enough to win in the current midterm year in Ohio, a state some Democrats believe has fallen out of their reach for the foreseeable future.


Read: Can a rust belt yogi save the Democratic party?

President Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump in 2020 buttressed the case for the moderate Democrat. Yet many of those moderates are fighting off extinction as national polarization nudges places like Ohio further away from the Democratic Party. After Barack Obama carried the state twice (by four points in 2008 and two points in 2012), Trump assembled back-to-back, eight-point victories built on high rural turnout.

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Redistricting factored into Ryan’s decision to abandon his House seat for a Senate run, but Ryan himself already had been losing the support of some white working-class voters. He won his northeastern congressional district with just 52.5 percent of the vote in 2020, after capturing 68 percent in 2016 and 72.5 percent in 2012. (Ryan faces two opponents in the Democratic primary on Tuesday but is considered the clear front-runner.) It doesn’t help that the political environment looks exceptionally disastrous for Democrats this midterm cycle.

Tony Fabrizio, one of Trump’s pollsters who has conducted surveys in the state, told me, “Ryan is a good campaigner and formidable candidate.” But Fabrizio believes that Trump’s performance pushed Ohio off the map for Democrats: “Let me put it this way, even the strongest and best swimmer can’t overcome a tidal wave.”

There’s scant talk among Democratic leaders about improving their political fortunes this fall. One Democratic operative, who asked for anonymity to avoid offending members of his own party, categorized Ryan’s race as a “third tier” priority in 2022, behind the Senate incumbents who need vigorous defending in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and New Hampshire, and the party’s best-looking pick-up opportunities in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, both states Biden won in 2020.


“We’ve got a tough case to make,” a top Ryan-campaign aide admitted to me, speaking anonymously so he could be candid about his candidate’s chances. “If Biden is at 38 percent [approval] on Election Day, we’re not going to win. But if he’s at 42 percent, 43 percent, we definitely have a shot at this.” Morning Consult recently measured Biden’s approval rating in Ohio at a perilous 39 percent.

Ryan professes to be undaunted by the task before him: defying the GOP’s midterm momentum in a red state—and doing it as a non-incumbent.

“There’s always the Harry Reids in 2010. There’s always the Schwarzenegger,” he told me recently.

Yes, Reid, the Nevada senator, survived a GOP rout a dozen years ago. But he also was the sitting majority leader in a state that had voted for Obama two years prior. Arnold Schwarzenegger won a recall election nearly two decades ago as a moderate Republican in deep-blue California, but the Terminator would probably not fare well in a GOP primary in today’s Ohio.

Read: Arnold Schwarzenegger plays hero one more time


“I’m not really overly obsessed with all of the dynamics swirling around. It’s just like—look, I’m from outside of Youngstown. I know what’s going on in Ohio. Ohio voters know my record,” Ryan said, snapping into candidate mode. “We’ve got to at least have a conversation about how messed up this is for Democrats to keep bleeding working-class people … whether they’re white or Black or brown. We’ve got a lot of work to do, so I want to be a big part of trying to repair that.”

Realistically, for Ryan to succeed, he will have to run an error-free race. He will also need to draw a deeply flawed opponent. That seems distinctly possible. The Republican candidates in Ohio are producing the wildest primary in the country, deploying tens of millions of dollars against one another in a competition that has featured bitter insults, accusations of sexism, and a near-physical altercation between two candidates—Josh Mandel and Mike Gibbons—at a public forum in March. Trump’s surprise endorsement of the Hillbilly Elegy author J. D. Vance has created even more uncertainty and infighting in the race as the primary approaches.

Some Democrats have suggested that Mandel, the 44-year-old former state treasurer who lost a 2012 Senate challenge to Brown, would be the best draw for Ryan, who could sharply contrast his willingness to challenge his own party on issues like trade with Mandel’s absolutism, particularly on cultural issues like teaching about race and sexual identity in schools. Mandel’s mask burning and call to eliminate public schools are the types of stunts that rev up partisan ideologues but risk alienating casual voters.


“Most Democrats don’t think Josh can win a statewide election, and there’s a lot of Republicans who feel that way, too,” Gibbons, a businessman who was polling ahead of Mandel and Vance earlier in the race, told me. “He’s a real risk for the party if he ends up the nominee.”

Mandel’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment on the record. But David McIntosh, the president of the Club for Growth, the biggest outside group supporting Mandel, assured me that Mandel would handily defeat Ryan in a general election. “Democrats have created this platform for themselves that’s just untenable with independents and moderate voters,” McIntosh said, referring to issues like critical race theory, defunding the police, and government spending.

Ryan’s strategy, according to the campaign aide, who would discuss it only on the condition of anonymity, will be similar regardless of who emerges from Tuesday’s primary: Talk incessantly about creating a manufacturing policy designed to compete with China. Argue that the Republican Party is more consumed by the fate of Dr. Seuss books than job creation, and be prepared for the GOP’s attempts to nationalize the race, accusing him of wanting to defund the police or contributing to inflation by supporting Biden’s spending. Remind voters that Ryan agreed with Trump’s more protectionist trade policy. Stress his opponents’ wealth—nearly all of the Republicans running are millionaires, and some have links to the off-shoring of jobs.


Ryan plans to devote considerable time to the rural Ohio counties where both Trump and Brown have succeeded, according to the aide—even if it means he just loses those counties gracefully, with 30 to 35 percent of the vote, instead of the 25 percent Biden and Hillary Clinton netted. Maybe by the fall, polls will show a single-digit race, the thinking goes, and the national political environment will be ever so slightly improving for Biden and Democrats. A late investment by an outside spender could provide Ryan enough cover from national attacks to meet his goal of just over 2 million votes.

It would be a shocking result, an aberration really. And if it sounds too good to be true, it just might be.

The stakes are bigger than Ryan’s individual candidacy; his performance might also help determine Ohio’s relevance to the future of the Democratic Party.

When Priorities USA, the dominant Democratic super PAC, announced its $30 million digital investment for 2022 at the beginning of the year, Ohio was not among the seven states included. A representative for the PAC declined to even offer a comment on the record about Ohio to avoid provoking second-guessing about the decision. Ohio also didn’t make the list of spending targets for Senate Majority PAC, which supports Democrats in Senate races. (A spokesperson for the group noted that its plans could change as the midterm cycle progresses.)


Read: The humiliating Ohio Senate race

Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor who embraced a 50-state strategy when he chaired the Democratic National Committee, thinks it would be an enormous tactical mistake for his party to write off Ohio. “This is nuts not to do this,” he said of national Democrats’ dismissal of the state in the current election cycle. “The voters of Ohio are conservative, but they’re not crazy … This is criminal misconduct in politics if we don’t fund this race.”

Regardless of what outsiders think, Ryan believes someone has to try to win over the white non-college-educated voters who threaten his party’s hold on not only the Senate but the presidency. And he still has hope—at least some.

“If the effort put forth in Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin was put into Ohio,” he says of the 2020 presidential result, “we would’ve done a hell of a lot better.”

David Catanese is a senior politics writer in McClatchy’s Washington bureau.



一个温和派对抗红色浪潮
蒂姆-瑞安可能是俄亥俄州的一个梦幻般的民主党候选人。但他需要很多运气。

作者：大卫-卡塔尼斯
蒂姆-瑞安
Joshua A. Bickel / The Columbus Dispatch / AP
2022年5月2日，美国东部时间上午6点

关于作者。大卫-卡塔尼斯(David Catanese)是麦克拉奇华盛顿分社的高级政治作家。

如果民主派战略家可以设计一个候选人来测试他们在俄亥俄州的全州竞选活动的方法，那么这个实验室可能会爆出一些非常接近蒂姆-瑞安的东西。作为一名高中四分卫，他在阿巴拉契亚的马霍宁河谷的爱尔兰和意大利工人阶级中长大，瑞安可以与那些逃离他的政党的小镇选民舒适地混合。现在是他在国会的第10个任期，他也拥有驾驭棘手的政治地形的经验。

"哥伦布市的民主党市长安德鲁-金特说："我认为蒂姆-瑞安是他这一代人中最有技巧的候选人之一。"在俄亥俄州，没有什么地方是蒂姆不能与人们联系的--无论是教堂、劳工厅还是企业的会议室。"


在竞选俄亥俄州开放的美国参议院席位的过程中，瑞安已经完成了在该州88个县中的每一站，并打破了州内的筹款记录，他的信息主要集中在为被科技繁荣和全球化抛弃的社区提供经济权力。在他竞选的第一个电视广告中，他半数以上都在叫嚣中国，这句话可能出自某位前总统之口。一位参与竞选的共和党策略师要求匿名，以免被认为是在赞扬对手，他告诉我这是 "俄亥俄州的完美信息"。

"贾斯汀-巴拉斯基(Justin Barasky)补充说，他是俄亥俄州人，曾负责民主党参议员谢罗德-布朗(Sherrod Brown)在该州的最后一次竞选活动，"我没有见过一个参议员候选人比他更有发言权。

但这一切会有什么影响吗？

政治策略家们喜欢引用 "候选人很重要 "这句话。自2016年总统选举以来，民主党的一部分人一直在推动像48岁的瑞安这样的政治家，以帮助左派在铁锈地带和没有受过大学教育的工人阶级中重新获得地位。然而，即使是最理想的民主党候选人，传达出最有针对性的信息，开展最顺利的竞选活动，是否足以在俄亥俄州当前的中期选举中获胜还不清楚，一些民主党人认为该州在可预见的未来已经失去了影响力。


阅读。一个铁锈地带的瑜伽师能拯救民主党吗？

总统乔-拜登(Joe Biden)在2020年战胜了唐纳德-特朗普(Donald Trump)，支撑了温和派民主党人的情况。然而，随着全国性的两极分化使俄亥俄州等地进一步远离民主党，这些温和派中的许多人正在抵御灭亡。在巴拉克-奥巴马(Barack Obama)两次赢得该州（2008年4个百分点，2012年2个百分点）之后，特朗普在农村高投票率的基础上取得了背靠背的8个百分点胜利。

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重新划分选区是瑞安决定放弃众议院席位竞选参议员的因素，但瑞安本人已经在失去一些白人工人阶级选民的支持。他在2020年仅以52.5%的选票赢得了他所在的东北部国会区，而在2016年和2012年，他分别获得了68%和72.5%的选票。(瑞安在周二的民主党初选中面临两个对手，但被认为是明显的领跑者）。对民主党人来说，这个中期选举周期的政治环境看起来异常糟糕，这一点也没有帮助。

特朗普的民意调查员之一、曾在该州进行调查的托尼-法布里齐奥(Tony Fabrizio)告诉我，"瑞安是个好的竞选者，也是个可怕的候选人。" 但法布里齐奥认为，特朗普的表现将俄亥俄州推到了民主党人的视野之外。"让我这样说吧，即使是最强壮、最优秀的游泳运动员也无法克服潮水的冲击。"

在民主党领导人中，很少有人谈论今年秋天改善他们的政治命运。一位要求匿名的民主党特工将瑞安的竞选归为2022年的 "第三层 "优先事项，排在需要大力捍卫的乔治亚州、亚利桑那州、内华达州和新罕布什尔州的参议院现任议员以及该党在宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州（拜登在2020年赢得的两个州）的最佳提拔机会之后。


"我们有一个艰难的理由，"瑞安竞选团队的一位高级助手向我承认，他是以匿名方式发言的，因此他可以坦率地谈论他的候选人的机会。"如果拜登在选举日有38%的[支持率]，我们就不会赢。但如果他的支持率达到42%、43%，我们肯定有机会。" 晨间咨询公司最近测得拜登在俄亥俄州的支持率为危险的39%。

瑞安自称对他面前的任务毫不畏惧：在一个红色的州对抗共和党的中期选举势头，而且是作为一个非现任者来做。

"2010年总会有哈里-瑞德的出现。总是有施瓦辛格，"他最近告诉我。

是的，内华达州参议员里德在十几年前的共和党溃败中幸存下来。但他也是一个两年前投票给奥巴马的州的现任多数党领袖。近二十年前，阿诺德-施瓦辛格(Arnold Schwarzenegger)作为深蓝加州的温和共和党人赢得了一次罢免选举，但在今天的俄亥俄州，这位终结者在共和党初选中可能不会有好结果。

阅读。阿诺德-施瓦辛格再扮英雄


"我真的没有过分迷恋周围的所有动态。这就像--看，我来自扬斯敦以外的地方。我知道俄亥俄州发生了什么。俄亥俄州的选民知道我的记录，"瑞安说，突然进入候选人模式。"我们至少要进行一次对话，讨论民主党人不断让工人阶级流血......无论他们是白人、黑人还是棕色人种，这都是很混乱的。我们有很多工作要做，所以我想成为试图修复这一状况的重要组成部分。"

现实地说，瑞安要想成功，他必须在比赛中不出错。他还需要抽到一个有很大缺陷的对手。这似乎很有可能。俄亥俄州的共和党候选人正在制造该国最疯狂的初选，他们在这场竞争中部署了数千万美元的资金，其中包括激烈的侮辱、对性别歧视的指责，以及两名候选人乔什-曼德尔和迈克-吉本斯在3月份的公共论坛上几乎发生的肢体冲突。随着初选的临近，特朗普出人意料地支持了《希伯来人哀歌》(Hillbilly Elegy)的作者J.D. Vance，这给竞选带来了更大的不确定性和内讧。

一些民主党人认为，44岁的前州财政部长曼德尔在2012年的参议院挑战中输给了布朗，他将是吸引瑞安的最佳人选，瑞安可以将他在贸易等问题上挑战自己政党的意愿与曼德尔的绝对主义形成鲜明对比，特别是在学校的种族和性身份教学等文化问题上。曼德尔焚烧面具和呼吁取消公立学校的做法，是使党派意识形态分子兴奋起来的类型，但有可能疏远普通选民。


"大多数民主党人认为乔希无法赢得全州选举，很多共和党人也这么认为，"吉本斯是一名商人，他在比赛早期的民调中领先于曼德尔和万斯，他告诉我。"如果他最终成为被提名人，他对党来说是一个真正的风险。"

曼德尔的竞选团队没有回应对记录进行评论的请求。但支持曼德尔的最大外部团体 "增长俱乐部 "的主席大卫-麦金托什(David McIntosh)向我保证，曼德尔将在大选中轻松击败瑞安。麦金托什说："民主党人为自己创造了这个平台，而这个平台在无党派人士和温和派选民中是站不住脚的。"他指的是关键种族理论、取消警察经费和政府开支等问题。

据这位不愿透露姓名的竞选助手说，无论谁在周二的初选中脱颖而出，瑞安的策略都将是类似的：不停地谈论建立一个旨在与中国竞争的制造业政策。辩称共和党对苏斯博士书籍的命运的关注超过了创造就业机会，并准备好应对共和党将比赛国家化的企图，指责他想为警察提供资金，或通过支持拜登的支出来促进通货膨胀。提醒选民，瑞安同意特朗普更加保护主义的贸易政策。强调他的对手的财富--几乎所有参选的共和党人都是百万富翁，有些人与工作外包有联系。


据助理说，瑞安计划在特朗普和布朗都成功的俄亥俄州农村县投入大量时间--即使这意味着他只是优雅地失去这些县，获得30%至35%的选票，而不是拜登和希拉里-克林顿的25%的净票。也许到了秋天，民调将显示出一位数的竞争，这种想法是，全国的政治环境将对拜登和民主党人稍有改善。一个外部支出者的后期投资可以为瑞安提供足够的掩护，使其免受全国性的攻击，以实现其略高于200万票的目标。

这将是一个令人震惊的结果，真的是一个反常现象。如果这听起来好得不像真的，那可能就是真的。

赌注比瑞安的个人候选资格更大；他的表现也可能有助于决定俄亥俄州与民主党未来的关系。

当占主导地位的民主党超级政治行动委员会(Priorities USA)在年初宣布对2022年进行3000万美元的数字投资时，俄亥俄州并不在其中的七个州之内。该委员会的一名代表甚至拒绝对俄亥俄州发表评论，以避免引起对该决定的猜测。俄亥俄州也没有被列入参议院多数派政治行动委员会的支出目标名单，该委员会支持参议院选举中的民主党人。(该组织的一位发言人指出，随着中期选举周期的进行，其计划可能会发生变化）。


阅读。羞辱性的俄亥俄州参议院选举

前佛蒙特州州长霍华德-迪恩(Howard Dean)在担任民主党全国委员会主席时接受了50个州的战略，他认为他的政党放弃俄亥俄州将是一个巨大的战术错误。"不这样做是疯狂的，"他在谈到全国民主党人在当前选举周期中对该州的否定时说。"俄亥俄州的选民很保守，但他们并不疯狂......如果我们不资助这场比赛，这就是政治上的犯罪行为。"

不管外界怎么想，瑞安认为，必须有人设法争取那些非大学学历的白人选民，这些人不仅威胁到他的政党在参议院的地位，而且威胁到总统职位。而且他仍然有希望--至少是有希望。

"如果把在宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州和威斯康星州付出的努力投入到俄亥俄州，"他谈到2020年的总统选举结果时说，"我们会做得更好。"

大卫-卡塔尼斯(David Catanese)是麦克拉奇报社华盛顿分社的高级政治作家。