2004.04.01 向敌人发起战斗

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Taking the Battle to the Enemy
By William Schneider
APRIL 1, 2004
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The great Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz wrote, "War is the continuation of politics by other means." For the Bush campaign, politics is the continuation of war by other means.

President Bush stated his war doctrine at West Point in June 2002: "We must take the battle to the enemy, disrupt his plans, and confront the worst threats before they emerge." That's the doctrine of pre-emptive strikes: Hit the enemy before he hits you. That's exactly what the United States did in Iraq and what Bush is now doing in his re-election campaign.

His tactics help explain a surprising trend. The month of March delivered some pretty bad news for the Bush campaign: the controversy over Richard Clarke's charges that the Bush administration did not take the threat of terrorism seriously enough before 9/11; record-high gasoline prices; and continuing violence in Iraq. Nevertheless, Bush seems to have made gains over presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry, going from 8 points behind in an early-March Gallup Poll to 4 points ahead in late March. A poll from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press showed Bush 9 points behind the senator from Massachusetts in mid-March but just 1 point behind in late March.


Rising gas prices are supposed to throw Bush, a Texan with ties to the oil industry, on the defensive. When gas prices last spiked, in March 2000, 39 percent of Americans complained that the prices were causing financial hardship, according to Gallup. Now, nearly half say gas prices are causing hardship. More than two-thirds of Americans call the gas price increases a major problem or a crisis. And many of those who feel that way support Kerry. A banner at Kerry rallies reads, "Low Gas Prices Fuel the Economy."

So the Bush campaign staged a pre-emptive strike by running a TV ad that calls attention to a statement Kerry made to The Boston Globe 10 years ago, when he referred to "my support for a 50-cent increase in the gas tax." The ad says, "People have wacky ideas like taxing gasoline more, so people drive less. That's John Kerry. He supported a 50-cent-a-gallon gas tax. If Kerry's gas-tax increases were law, the average family would pay $657 more a year."

The Bush-Cheney '04 Web site has a Kerry gas-tax calculator (www.georgewbush.com/calculator). Let's say you log in and tell it that you want to drive from the state Capitol in Lansing, Mich., a swing state, to the state Capitol in Columbus, Ohio, another swing state. The calculator will give you a map with detailed driving directions, plus a calculation showing that Kerry's gas tax, if enacted, would cost you an additional $7.12 at the pump.




That's called taking the battle to the enemy. And it's working. In 18 swing states where the Bush campaign has been running ads, Kerry was 12 points ahead two months ago in the Gallup Poll. By late March, Bush had pulled 6 points ahead in those states. In states where there have been no Bush ads, the race two months ago was a virtual tie—Bush 48 percent, Kerry 47. And it remains Bush 48, Kerry 47. No ads, no change.

Senior officials in the Bush-Cheney campaign caution against giving too much credit to the anti-Kerry gasoline ad. For one thing, the Bush campaign started out in early March with a $10 million positive ad launch in those 18 swing states. "I can't see one ad driving up Kerry's negatives," a senior strategist said.

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Nevertheless, two months ago, opinion of Kerry was 66 percent favorable in those 18 states, more favorable than in the rest of the country. But favorable opinion of Kerry has dropped sharply in the states that saw the Bush ads, to 51 percent—lower than in the rest of the country.

The Bush campaign claims the shift is the result of "the buzz." The Bush team's argument is that people changed their view of Kerry because of what they saw in news reports of the campaign, including coverage of Bush's visits to swing states such as Florida, where Bush said of Kerry: He's "been in Washington long enough to take both sides on just about every issue."

The Bush campaign doesn't deny helping create "the buzz." Bush-Cheney communications director Terry Holt said, "We have an extensive echo chamber of volunteers and local supporters who help us get our message out across all of the media."

The Bush campaign has an army of partisans, ready to do battle at a signal from Washington. That explains the intensely partisan response to Clarke's charges. The Gallup Poll shows the country sharply divided over Clarke's credibility, whether the Bush administration has paid enough attention to the Qaeda threat, and whether Iraq is part of the war on terrorism. In each case, at least 80 percent of Republicans are on one side of the issue and at least 70 percent of Democrats are on the other side.


Similarly, the image of Kerry as a tax-raiser appears to have sunk in: 58 percent of Americans polled by Gallup, including most people making less than $30,000 a year, think that Kerry would raise their taxes.

The Bush campaign is employing a strategy of pre-emptive strikes, backed up by legions of partisans, to throw Kerry on the defensive. Bush is running for re-election, quite literally, as the warrior president.

William Schneider is the Cable News Network's senior political analyst. He is also a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., and a contributing editor for the Los Angeles Times, National Journal, and The Atlantic Monthly. His column appears every week in National Journal, a weekly magazine covering politics and government published in Washington, D.C.




向敌人发起战斗
作者：威廉-施耐德
2004年4月1日
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伟大的普鲁士军事理论家卡尔-冯-克劳塞维茨写道："战争是政治通过其他手段的延续。" 对布什的竞选活动来说，政治就是用其他手段继续进行战争。

2002年6月，布什总统在西点军校阐述了他的战争理论。"我们必须向敌人开战，打乱他的计划，在最严重的威胁出现之前就与之对抗。" 这就是先发制人的打击理论。在敌人攻击你之前打击他。这正是美国在伊拉克所做的，也是布什现在在竞选连任时所做的。

他的战术有助于解释一个令人惊讶的趋势。3月份为布什的竞选活动带来了一些相当糟糕的消息：理查德-克拉克(Richard Clarke)指控布什政府在9/11之前没有足够重视恐怖主义的威胁，引起了争议；汽油价格创下新高；伊拉克的暴力事件持续不断。尽管如此，布什似乎已经取得了对民主党提名人约翰-克里的优势，从3月初盖洛普民意调查中落后8个百分点到3月下旬领先4个百分点。皮尤人民和新闻研究中心(Pew Research Center for the People and the Press)的民意调查显示，3月中旬布什落后这位来自马萨诸塞州的参议员9个百分点，但在3月下旬仅落后1个百分点。


油价上涨应该会让布什这个与石油行业有联系的德克萨斯人处于守势。根据盖洛普的数据，当油价上次在2000年3月飙升时，39%的美国人抱怨说油价造成了经济困难。现在，将近一半的人说油价造成了困难。超过三分之二的美国人称油价上涨是一个主要问题或危机。而许多有这种感觉的人支持克里。克里集会上的一条横幅上写着："低油价为经济加油"。

因此，布什的竞选团队上演了一场先发制人的攻击，他们播放了一则电视广告，呼吁人们注意克里10年前对《波士顿环球报》发表的一份声明，当时他提到 "我支持增加50美分的汽油税"。该广告说："人们有一些古怪的想法，比如对汽油征收更多的税，这样人们就会少开车。这就是约翰-克里。他支持每加仑50美分的汽油税。如果克里的汽油税增长成为法律，普通家庭每年将多支付657美元。"

布什-切尼'04网站上有一个克里汽油税计算器（www.georgewbush.com/calculator）。比方说，你登录后告诉它，你想从密歇根州兰辛的州议会大厦开车到俄亥俄州哥伦布的州议会大厦，这是一个摇摆州。计算器会给你一张带有详细行车路线的地图，再加上一个计算结果，显示克里的汽油税如果颁布，会让你在加油站多花7.12美元。




这就是所谓的向敌人开战。而且它正在发挥作用。在布什竞选团队投放广告的18个摇摆州中，两个月前的盖洛普民意调查中，克里领先12个百分点。到3月下旬，布什在这些州已经拉开了6个百分点的差距。在没有布什广告的州，两个月前的竞争几乎是平局--布什48%，克里47%。而现在仍然是布什48%，克里47%。没有广告，就没有变化。

布什-切尼竞选团队的高级官员警告说，不要对反克里的汽油广告给予过多的信任。首先，布什竞选团队在3月初就在这18个摇摆州推出了1000万美元的正面广告。"一位高级战略家说："我看不出一个广告会使克里的负面情绪上升。

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然而，两个月前，在这18个州，对克里的支持率为66%，比全国其他地区的支持率高。但在看到布什广告的各州，对克里的好感度急剧下降，达到51%，低于全国其他地区。

布什竞选团队声称，这种转变是 "嗡嗡声 "的结果。布什团队的论点是，人们改变了对克里的看法，因为他们从竞选活动的新闻报道中看到了什么，包括对布什访问佛罗里达等摇摆州的报道，布什在报道中谈到克里时说："他在华盛顿呆得够久了，几乎在每个问题上都站在两边。"

布什竞选团队并不否认帮助制造 "嗡嗡声"。布什-切尼的通讯主管特里-霍尔特说："我们有一个由志愿者和当地支持者组成的广泛的回音室，他们帮助我们在所有媒体上传播我们的信息。"

布什的竞选活动有一支党员大军，只要华盛顿发出信号，就会准备好战斗。这解释了对克拉克指控的强烈党派反应。盖洛普民意调查显示，在克拉克的可信度、布什政府是否对基地组织的威胁给予了足够的重视，以及伊拉克是否是反恐战争的一部分等问题上，全国上下存在着巨大的分歧。在每一种情况下，至少有80%的共和党人站在问题的一边，至少有70%的民主党人站在另一边。


同样，克里作为税收大户的形象似乎已经深入人心。在盖洛普的调查中，58%的美国人，包括大多数年收入低于3万美元的人，认为克里会提高他们的税收。

布什的竞选团队正在采用先发制人的策略，在游击队的支持下，将克里置于守势。布什正在竞选连任，从字面上看，是作为战士的总统竞选。

威廉-施耐德是有线电视新闻网的高级政治分析员。他也是华盛顿特区美国企业研究所的常驻研究员，以及《洛杉矶时报》、《国家期刊》和《大西洋月刊》的特约编辑。他的专栏每周出现在《国家期刊》上，这是一本在华盛顿特区出版的报道政治和政府的周刊。