2014.07.04 如果美国在革命战争中失败了怎么办？

shiyi18

What If America Had Lost the Revolutionary War?
A Fourth of July thought experiment

By Uri Friedman

A statue of George Washington is silhouetted against the sky at the Trenton Battle Monument in Trenton, New Jersey, on November 29, 2012. (Julio Cortez / AP)
JULY 4, 2014
SHARE
The Fourth of July—a time we Americans set aside to celebrate our independence and mark the war we waged to achieve it, along with the battles that followed. There was the War of 1812, the War of 1833, the First Ohio-Virginia War, the Three States' War, the First Black Insurrection, the Great War, the Second Black Insurrection, the Atlantic War, the Florida Intervention.

Confused? These are actually conflicts invented for the novel The Disunited States of America by Harry Turtledove, a prolific (and sometimes-pseudonymous) author of alternate histories with a Ph.D. in Byzantine history. The book is set in the 2090s in an alternate United States that is far from united. In fact, the states, having failed to ratify a constitution following the American Revolution, are separate countries that oscillate between cooperating and warring with one another, as in Europe.

"The United States of America was the style by which the rebellious colonies referred to themselves, in the Declaration of Philadelphia."
"They couldn't agree on how to set up the legislature," one character explains. "The big states wanted it based on population. The little ones wanted each state to have one vote no matter how many people it had. They were too stubborn to split the difference."

Turtledove told me that it was Richard Dreyfuss, the actor, who first gave him the idea of the American Revolution as a subject for alternate history. The two collaborated on a novel, The Two Georges, that is set in the 1990s and based on the premise that the Revolutionary War never happened. Instead, George Washington and King George III struck an agreement in which the United States and Canada (the "North American Union") remained part of the British Empire. The artist Thomas Gainsborough commemorated the deal in a painting, The Two Georges, that is emblazoned on money and made ubiquitous as a symbol of the felicitous "union between Great Britain and her American dominions."

The novel, which contains some delightfully bewildering passages ("The British Empire and the Franco-Spanish Holy Alliance were officially at peace, so skirmishes between the North American Union and Nueva Espana seldom made the newspapers or the wireless"), includes a description of the painting:

Bowing before the king, George Washington was made to appear shorter than his sovereign. The blue coat that proclaimed his colonial colonelcy was of wool like that of George III, but of a coarser weave speaking of homespun. Not all its creases were those of fashion; with a few strategic wrinkles and some frayed fringes depending from one epaulette, Gainsborough managed to suggest how long the garment had lain folded in its trunk while Washington sailed across the Atlantic to advance the colonies' interests on the privy council George III had established.

Turtledove told me by email that he had an "epiphany" when he traveled with his family to the World Science Fiction Convention in Winnipeg, Canada in 1994, shortly before he published The Two Georges.

As he read a book from the Little House on the Prairie series to his daughter at the hotel, he came upon a section about a Fourth of July celebration "on the plains in the late nineteenth century, with fireworks and with tub-thumping speakers talking about how the United States had broken away from British tyranny and was the freest country in the world as a result. And there I was reading this in the country next door to mine, a country as similar to mine as any two nations on earth, a country just as free as mine—and a country that had never broken away from Britain at all. It was a thought-provoking experience." Canada, of course, merely shares a queen with the United Kingdom at this point, but its relationship with Britain has certainly evolved differently than America's has.

Turtledove explained that he's toyed with the concept of the American Revolution in other works as well, including The United States of Atlantis, a book, as he described it, "set in a world where the eastern quarter of North America rifted away from the rest of the continent 85,000,000 years ago and got shoved into the middle of the Atlantic by plate tectonics different from the real ones." Atlantis, led by Founding Father-like figures, stages an American Revolution-style uprising against Great Britain.


A painting of the Battle of Quebec in 1775 (Wikimedia Commons)
Turtledove also pointed out that he isn't the only author to experiment with this genre. He cited the science-fiction writer H. Beam Piper and his 1948 short story "He Walked Around the Horses." In the story, European officials—living in a 19th-century world in which the American Revolution and consequently the French Revolution have failed, and the Napoleonic Wars never occurred—puzzle over the reports of a British diplomat named Benjamin Bathurst, who has somehow tumbled from our real world into this parallel universe.

One flummoxed lieutenant exclaims that Bathurst spoke of the North American colonists defeating Great Britain and establishing a republic:

Well, you can imagine, that gave me a start. All the world knows that the American patriots lost their war of independence from England; that their army was shattered, that their leaders were either killed or driven into exile. ...

"I can cut it even finer than that," Bathurst continued. "It was the defeat of [British General John] Burgoyne at Saratoga. We made a good bargain when we got Benedict Arnold to turn his coat, but we didn't do it soon enough. If he hadn't been on the field that day, Burgoyne would have gone through [American General Horatio] Gates' army like a hot knife through butter."

But Arnold hadn't been at Saratoga. I know; I have read much of the American War. Arnold was shot dead on New Year's Day of 1776, during the storming of Quebec. And Burgoyne had done just as Bathurst had said; he had gone through Gates like a knife, and down the Hudson to join [British General William] Howe.

A British minister marvels at a separate report from Bathurst:

The United States of America, you will recall, was the style by which the rebellious colonies referred to themselves, in the Declaration of Philadelphia. The James Madison who is mentioned as the current President of the United States is now living, in exile, in Switzerland. His alleged predecessor in office, Thomas Jefferson, was the author of the rebel Declaration; after the defeat of the rebels, he escaped to Havana, and died, several years ago, in the Principality of Lichtenstein.

I asked Turtledove what the world might have looked like in 2014 if Britain had won the Revolutionary War, or if the war had never been fought in the first place. He noted that "alternate history is often better at asking questions than answering them." Still, he indulged me.

RECOMMENDED READING
A blood-clot cast of the right bronchial tree
Doctors Aren’t Sure How This Even Came Out of a Patient
HALEY WEISS
Man in graduation cap standing on trend line
Better Schools Won’t Fix America
NICK HANAUER

SPONSOR CONTENT
A Main Street of Small Businesses Created For You
FACEBOOK, INC.
"If the British Empire included all of North America north of the Rio Grande as well as India, it would be incontestably the strongest state in the world," he responded. "The French Revolution wouldn't have happened, both for lack of example and because it began when a political crisis and a famine coincided with a government bankruptcy that sprang from the money the government paid out helping the American colonists gain their independence—and giving perfidious Albion a shot in the eye."

"This is, essentially, the world of The Two Georges," he continued. "Because the Empire was so strong, we might well have missed out on not only the Napoleonic Wars but also the World Wars. On the other hand, we would also have missed out on the kick in the pants wars give to technology and medicine. We might have had as many deaths that could have been prevented in our own world by medical advances as we've lost in our big wars." Would Marxism and nationalism have become such formidable forces? He's not sure.

"Alternate history isn't really about the world you're creating," he added. "It's about the world in which you live, and gives you and your readers a funhouse mirror in which to see the real world." It's a reflection, he says, that we can't get any other way.

Uri Friedman is the managing editor at the Atlantic Council and a contributing writer at The Atlantic. He was previously a staff writer and the Global editor at The Atlantic, and the deputy managing editor at Foreign Policy magazine.




如果美国在革命战争中失败了怎么办？
一个国庆节的思想实验

作者：乌里-弗里德曼

2012年11月29日，在新泽西州特伦顿的特伦顿战役纪念碑上，乔治-华盛顿的雕像在天空中呈现出剪影。(Julio Cortez / AP)
2014年7月4日
分享
7月4日--我们美国人留出的时间，以庆祝我们的独立，并纪念我们为实现独立而发动的战争，以及随后发生的战斗。有1812年战争、1833年战争、第一次俄亥俄-弗吉尼亚战争、三州战争、第一次黑人起义、大战、第二次黑人起义、大西洋战争、佛罗里达干预。

感到困惑吗？这些实际上是哈里-特莱多夫（Harry Turtledove）为小说《美利坚合众国的分裂》（The Disunited States of America）发明的冲突，他是一位多产的（有时是假名）另类历史作家，拥有拜占庭历史博士学位。这本书的背景是20世纪90年代，在一个远非统一的另类美国。事实上，各州在美国革命后未能批准一部宪法，是独立的国家，在相互合作和战争之间摇摆不定，就像在欧洲一样。

"美利坚合众国是反叛的殖民地在《费城宣言》中提到自己的风格。"
"他们无法就如何建立立法机构达成一致，"一个人物解释说。"大州希望根据人口来决定。小州希望每个州都有一票，不管它有多少人。他们太顽固了，不愿意分出胜负。"

斑鸠告诉我，是演员理查德-德雷福斯（Richard Dreyfuss）首先向他提出了将美国革命作为另类历史的主题的想法。两人合作写了一本小说《两个乔治》，其背景是20世纪90年代，以革命战争从未发生为前提。相反，乔治-华盛顿和国王乔治三世达成了一项协议，美国和加拿大（"北美联盟"）仍然是大英帝国的一部分。艺术家托马斯-庚斯博罗（Thomas Gainsborough）在一幅名为《两个乔治》（The Two Georges）的画作中纪念了这一协议，这幅画被印在钱上，作为 "大不列颠和她的美洲领地之间的联盟 "的美好象征而无处不在。

这部小说包含一些令人愉快的令人困惑的段落（"大英帝国和法国-西班牙神圣联盟正式处于和平状态，因此北美联盟和新西班牙之间的小规模冲突很少出现在报纸或无线网络上"），其中包括对这幅画的描述。

在国王面前鞠躬时，乔治-华盛顿被弄得比他的君主还矮。宣告他的上校身份的蓝色大衣与乔治三世的大衣一样是羊毛的，但织法更粗，就像家纺一样。并非所有的折痕都是时尚的折痕；通过一些战略性的皱纹和一些从肩章上脱落的流苏，庚斯博罗成功地暗示了当华盛顿越过大西洋，在乔治三世建立的枢密院中推进殖民地的利益时，这件衣服在后备箱中折叠了多长时间。

斑鸠通过电子邮件告诉我，他在1994年与家人一起去加拿大温尼伯参加世界科幻大会时有了一个 "顿悟"，那是在他出版《两个乔治》之前不久。

当他在酒店给女儿读《草原上的小房子》系列中的一本书时，他看到了一个关于国庆节庆祝活动的章节，"在19世纪末的平原上，放着烟花，讲着美国如何摆脱了英国的暴政，因此成为世界上最自由的国家。而我是在我隔壁的国家读到这本书的，这个国家和我的国家在地球上任何两个国家中都是相似的，这个国家和我的国家一样自由，而且这个国家根本没有脱离英国。这是一次发人深省的经历"。当然，加拿大在这一点上只是与英国共享一个女王，但它与英国的关系的发展肯定与美国不同。

斑鸠解释说，他在其他作品中也玩弄过美国革命的概念，包括《亚特兰蒂斯合众国》，正如他所描述的那样，这本书 "设定在这样一个世界中，北美的东四分之一在8500万年前从大陆的其他地方裂开，被不同于现实的板块构造推到了大西洋的中央"。亚特兰蒂斯在开国元勋般的人物领导下，上演了一场美国革命式的反英起义。


1775年魁北克战役的一幅画 (Wikimedia Commons)
斑鸠还指出，他并不是唯一一个尝试这种体裁的作者。他引用了科幻作家H.Beam Piper和他1948年的短篇小说《他在马背上走来走去》。在这个故事中，欧洲官员生活在一个19世纪的世界里，在这个世界里，美国革命和随后的法国革命都失败了，拿破仑战争从未发生过，他们对一个名叫本杰明-巴瑟斯特的英国外交官的报告感到困惑，他不知何故从我们的现实世界跌入这个平行宇宙。

一位困惑的中尉感叹道，巴瑟斯特谈到了北美殖民者击败英国并建立共和国的问题。

好吧，你可以想象，这让我感到震惊。全世界都知道，美国爱国者从英国独立的战争中失败了；他们的军队被打垮了，他们的领导人不是被杀就是被流放了。...

"我可以把它切得比这更细，"巴瑟斯特继续说。"那是[英国将军约翰]伯戈因在萨拉托加的失败。当我们让本尼迪克特-阿诺德交出他的外套时，我们做了一个很好的交易，但我们没有足够快地完成。如果他那天不在战场上，伯戈因就会像热刀子穿过黄油一样穿过[美国将军霍雷肖]盖茨的军队"。

但阿诺德没有参加过萨拉托加战争。我知道；我读过很多关于美国战争的文章。阿诺德是在1776年的元旦被枪杀的，在攻打魁北克的时候。而布尔戈因正如巴瑟斯特所说的那样，他像刀子一样穿过盖茨，顺着哈德逊河去投靠[英国将军威廉]豪。

一位英国大臣对巴瑟斯特的一份单独报告感到惊叹。

你会记得，美利坚合众国是反叛的殖民地在《费城宣言》中提到自己的风格。被提到的美国现任总统詹姆斯-麦迪逊现在正流亡在瑞士。他所谓的前任，托马斯-杰斐逊，是叛军宣言的作者；叛军失败后，他逃到哈瓦那，几年前死在利希滕斯坦公国。

我问Tuttledove，如果英国赢得了革命战争，或者如果战争一开始就没有发生，那么2014年的世界会是什么样子。他指出，"另类历史往往更擅长于提出问题而不是回答问题"。不过，他还是纵容了我。

推荐阅读
右支气管树的血凝块模型
医生们不确定这个东西是怎么从病人身上出来的
海利-魏斯
戴着毕业帽的男子站在趋势线上
更好的学校并不能解决美国的问题
尼克-哈瑙尔

赞助内容
为您打造的小企业主街
FACEBOOK, INC.
"如果大英帝国包括格兰德河以北的所有北美地区以及印度，它将无可争议地成为世界上最强大的国家，"他回答说。"法国大革命就不会发生，一方面是因为缺乏榜样，另一方面是因为它是在政治危机和饥荒发生时开始的，政府的破产源于政府支付的帮助美国殖民者获得独立的钱，并给背信弃义的阿尔比昂打了一针。"

"这基本上就是《双乔治》的世界，"他继续说。"由于帝国是如此强大，我们很可能不仅错过了拿破仑战争，也错过了世界大战。另一方面，我们也会错过战争对技术和医学的推动作用。在我们自己的世界里，我们可能会有与我们在大型战争中失去的一样多的可以通过医学进步而避免的死亡。" 马克思主义和民族主义会成为如此强大的力量吗？他不确定。

他补充说："备用历史并不是真正关于你所创造的世界，"他说。"它是关于你所生活的世界，给你和你的读者提供了一面有趣的镜子，让他们看到真实的世界。" 他说，这是一个我们无法以其他方式得到的反映。

乌里-弗里德曼是大西洋理事会的总编辑，也是《大西洋》杂志的特约撰稿人。他曾是《大西洋》杂志的工作人员和全球编辑，以及《外交政策》杂志的副总编辑。