2022.08.05 堪萨斯州对堕胎的投票表明许多共和党人支持堕胎

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Kansas’s vote on abortion shows many Republicans are pro-choice
The overturning of Roe v Wade has also pushed Democrats and women to the polls
Aug 5th 2022

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Aconstitutional amendment that would have allowed Kansas’s legislature to overturn the right to an abortion failed on August 2nd, dealing a blow to conservative efforts to outlaw the practice. Kansans voted by 59% to 41% to block the amendment, so that abortion will remain legal in the state up to the 22nd week of pregnancy. That compares with the 56% of the state’s electorate that voted for Donald Trump, the anti-abortion candidate, in the presidential election in 2020. Given that such a traditionally red state upheld abortion rights, it is likely that most others would, too. The Economist’s analysis of the results suggests similar referendums would probably succeed in 41 of the 50 states; the others either would be likely to end in losses for abortion-rights activists or appear too close to say either way.


The result was caused by two factors. First, many Republicans oppose rolling back abortion protections. Combined with Democrats and political independents, they are enough to block new restrictions even in very red states. In an average of the most recent four weeks’ surveys by YouGov, an online pollster, on The Economist’s behalf, 35% of Republicans said abortion should always be legal or be legal with very few restrictions, such as for late-term abortions; 50% said abortions should be legal in only special circumstances, including those to save the life of the mother; and only 15% preferred abortions to always be banned. Based on a model that combines this polling data with the demographics of people who live in Kansas, we estimated that 51% of adults there support the right to an abortion in all or most circumstances, while an additional 33% favour additional restrictions but are opposed to banning it completely.


The second factor is that Democrats and women have become increasingly concerned about abortion since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v Wade earlier this year. That has made them more likely to vote. According to YouGov’s data, in January 2021 nearly 70% of both Democrats and Republicans believed that abortion was a “somewhat” or “very” important issue. That has now increased to more than 85% for Democrats, while just 65% of Republicans would agree. Thirty per cent of women now say they are “more enthusiastic” about voting in the mid-term elections compared with previous elections—an increase of five percentage points since April. Over the same period, there has been no increase among men. The results in Kansas show how these trends combined to produce a victory for proponents of abortion rights. They could also yield an unexpected boost for Democrats in November’s mid-term elections. ■



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堪萨斯州对堕胎的投票表明许多共和党人支持堕胎
推翻罗伊诉韦德案也将民主党人和妇女推向了投票站
2022年8月5日

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一项允许堪萨斯州立法机构推翻堕胎权的宪法修正案于8月2日失败，对保守派取缔堕胎的努力造成了打击。堪萨斯人以59%对41%的投票率阻止了该修正案，因此，堕胎在该州仍然合法，直到怀孕的第22周。相比之下，该州56%的选民在2020年的总统选举中投票给反堕胎候选人唐纳德-特朗普。鉴于这样一个传统的红色州支持堕胎权，其他大多数州可能也会支持。经济学人》对结果的分析表明，类似的公投可能会在50个州中的41个州取得成功；其他州要么可能以堕胎权活动家的失败告终，要么似乎太接近了，无法说清楚。


这一结果是由两个因素造成的。首先，许多共和党人反对撤销对堕胎的保护。与民主党人和无党派人士结合起来，即使在非常红的州，他们也足以阻止新的限制。在线民调机构YouGov代表《经济学人》进行的最近四周的平均调查显示，35%的共和党人表示，堕胎应该永远合法，或者在有极少限制的情况下合法，比如晚期堕胎；50%的人表示，堕胎应该只在特殊情况下合法，包括为挽救母亲的生命；只有15%的人倾向于永远禁止堕胎。根据一个将这些民调数据与居住在堪萨斯州的人口统计学相结合的模型，我们估计那里51%的成年人支持在所有或大多数情况下的堕胎权，而另外33%的人赞成附加限制，但反对完全禁止。


第二个因素是，自从今年早些时候最高法院推翻了罗伊诉韦德案以来，民主党人和妇女越来越关注堕胎问题。这使他们更有可能投票。根据YouGov的数据，在2021年1月，近70%的民主党人和共和党人都认为堕胎是一个 "有点 "或 "非常 "重要的问题。现在，民主党人的这一比例已经上升到85%以上，而共和党人只有65%会同意。现在有30%的妇女说，与以前的选举相比，她们对中期选举的投票 "更加热情"--自4月以来增加了5个百分点。在同一时期，男性的投票率没有增加。堪萨斯州的选举结果表明，这些趋势是如何结合在一起，为支持堕胎权利的人带来了胜利。它们也可能在11月的中期选举中为民主党人带来意想不到的助力。■