2018.09.21 民主党人在2018年转向女性候选人

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Democrats turn to female candidates in 2018
The share of women among Democratic nominees for the House of Representatives has surged, but among Republicans the increase is modest

Sep 21st 2018

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By THE DATA TEAM

IN JULY of 1984, Walter Mondale, the Democratic presidential nominee, chose Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate. It was the first time in American history that a major party had nominated a woman for vice-president. In her acceptance speech, Ms Ferraro said that “American history is about doors being open…as long as you’re willing to earn it.” Three decades later, those doors are being knocked off their hinges. Excluding incumbents running for re-election, fully half of the candidates Democrats have nominated for the House of Representatives this year are women—an increase of 23 percentage points over the share in 2016.

In the wake of Hillary Clinton’s defeat in the presidential election of 2016, many Democratic pundits feared that lingering sexism among American voters would continue to put female candidates at a disadvantage. The party’s voters, however, appear to have reached the opposite conclusion. Super-charged both by the election of Mr Trump, who has been recorded boasting about groping women, and the #MeToo movement protesting against sexual harassment in the workplace, female respondents to opinion polls have turned against Republicans in record proportions. The best antidote, the Democratic electorate seems to believe, is to put women on the general-election ballot: with all other factors held constant, being female was one of the strongest predictors of winning a Democratic House nomination in 2018 (see article).


Nonetheless, it would be a stretch to call 2018 a new “Year of the Woman” without addressing the other side of the aisle. Among Republicans, the share of non-incumbent nominees this year that are women is a paltry 18%, barely higher than the proportion registered in 2004. In part, this discrepancy may reflect a greater propensity for female candidates to prioritise issues that disproportionately affect women, such as access to contraception and the inclusion of maternity coverage in health-insurance plans. The Democratic party, with its higher concentration of women than the Republican party, is more inclined towards female candidates. However, it also stems from differences of opinion over whether electing more women is a goal in and of itself. A report from the Pew Research Centre released this month found that 79% of Democrats but just 33% of Republicans believe that there are “too few women in high political offices”.



民主党人在2018年转向女性候选人
在民主党提名的众议院候选人中，女性的比例激增，但在共和党人中，增幅不大。

2018年9月21日


作者：数据团队

1984年7月，民主党总统候选人沃尔特-蒙代尔选择杰拉尔丁-费拉罗作为其竞选伙伴。这是美国历史上第一次由一个大党提名一位女性担任副总统。费拉罗女士在接受采访时说，"美国的历史是关于门的开放......只要你愿意去争取"。三十年后的今天，这些门正被推倒在铰链上。不包括竞选连任的现任者，民主党今年提名的众议院候选人中，有整整一半是女性，比2016年的比例增加了23个百分点。

在希拉里-克林顿在2016年总统选举中落败后，许多民主党学者担心，美国选民中挥之不去的性别歧视将继续使女性候选人处于不利地位。然而，该党的选民似乎已经得出了相反的结论。特朗普当选后，有记录显示他曾自夸地摸过女人，加上抗议工作场所性骚扰的#MeToo运动，民意调查的女性受访者以创纪录的比例反对共和党人。民主党选民似乎认为，最好的解药是将女性列入大选选票：在所有其他因素不变的情况下，女性是2018年赢得民主党众议院提名的最有力预测因素之一（见文章）。


尽管如此，如果不解决过道另一边的问题，将2018年称为新的 "妇女年"，那就太牵强了。在共和党人中，今年的非现任提名人中，女性所占比例仅为18%，几乎不高于2004年的比例。在某种程度上，这种差异可能反映了女性候选人更倾向于优先考虑对妇女有重大影响的问题，如获得避孕药具和将产妇保险纳入健康保险计划。与共和党相比，民主党的女性集中度更高，更倾向于女性候选人。然而，这也是源于对选举更多女性本身是否是一个目标的意见分歧。皮尤研究中心本月发布的一份报告发现，79%的民主党人但只有33%的共和党人认为，"担任高级政治职务的女性太少"。