2017.07.10 棒球界的目光都集中在亚伦-贾奇身上

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Baseball’s Eyes Are on Aaron Judge
The New York Yankees’ rookie slugger may already be the sport’s biggest star. Will he keep it up?

By Robert O'Connell

The New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) follows through on a two-run home run against the Toronto Blue Jays during the fourth inning at Yankee Stadium. (Brad Penner / Reuters)
JULY 10, 2017
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The Major League Baseball season reaches its unofficial midpoint with Tuesday night’s All-Star game, and the story of the year, so far, is Aaron Judge. As the New York Yankees’ rookie right-fielder, Judge has produced jaw-slackening moments with such regularity that it’s hard to single one out, but a good example came on June 11, when the Yankees hosted the Baltimore Orioles in the Bronx.

The game before, Judge had hit his league-leading 19th home run of the season, and that day he padded his total even further. In the sixth inning, he sent an inside pitch soaring 495 feet over the left-field wall, the longest shot by any player this year. An inning later, the Orioles’ mop-up reliever—the Yankees led 12-3 at this point—pitched Judge cautiously, keeping the ball on the far edge of the plate, but Judge reached out and lashed another homer to right.

In the absence of a close game, the thrill of the afternoon was in seeing him lay out the exact dimensions of his talents. Types and locations of pitches didn’t matter. Once Judge’s bat met them, they all ended up far, far away. “He is putting on the most amazing display I think I have ever seen!” claimed John Sterling, who has witnessed five World Series championships in his 28 years calling New York games.

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At 25 years old, on a young Yankees team that has surprised with its ahead-of-schedule relevance, Judge is a rare combination of rookie and MVP candidate. He may also be baseball’s biggest star. He led the American League in All-Star fan votes, he’ll headline Monday’s Home Run Derby, and a section of Yankee Stadium bleachers has been recommissioned as “Judge’s Chambers,” where devotees dress in robes and wave gavels. His statistics, impressive as they are—30 home runs, the highest slugging percentage and wins above replacement in the Majors—make up only part of his appeal, the main draw being the sheer scale of his presence on the field.

Judge would be large by NBA or NFL standards, but within the context of his chosen sport he is a titan. At six feet seven inches tall and 282 pounds, everything he does is outsized. He stands statue-still at the plate and, when he gets a pitch he likes, sweeps his bat to it, sending it zooming skyward faster and farther than anyone else. If he were a video game creation, Judge’s “power” attribute would be slid all the way up to 99—his uniform number, incidentally.

Judge not only sets this season’s standards, but he also exemplifies its trends. Across baseball, 2017 has been a festival of homers. They are being hit at a higher rate than at any point in history, and the methods for appreciating them have evolved in kind. MLB’s data-compiling program Statcast now measures “launch angle” and “exit velocity,” metrics that look favorably on Judge, who already owns the three of the four hardest-hit home runs since tracking began in 2015. For a sport always trying to court younger fans, the combination of deep shots and Statcast data is highly internet-friendly, and the Yankee outfielder testifies to their star-making potential. Judge goes yard, MLB tweets out a video replete with figures—“the first player to have SIX homers recorded at 115+ mph in a season”—and his jersey sales climb.

The high-octane show goes on, with a rookie who looks like his own monument at its center.
However much it yearns for shareable stars, though, baseball retains a temperate streak, so the question that follows Judge is the one that has been asked of every upstart rookie since their accomplishments were shared solely by newspaper and radio: Can it last? So far, the counterstrategies usually deployed on young sluggers—pitch them inside, throw breaking balls out of the strike zone—haven’t quieted him, but his season to this point has the feeling of a sunny first act, with some requisite trouble still to come. His size and the big swing that comes with it, so useful now, may yet need some adjusting as pitchers test for weakness.


A similar uncertainty tails the home-run boom in general, and a minor industry has grown around hypothesizing about its causes and staying power. The story du jour is that, following a fallow period for offense, MLB fiddled with the baseballs to help them fly farther; “Are Juiced Balls the New Steroids?” a recent FiveThirtyEight article asked. A parallel theory holds that players are using the new analytics at their disposal, varying launch angles to loft pitches in the air. Each explanation makes room for an eventual reversion to historic norms. The equipment could return to old standards, and those uppercutting batters might overdo it.

In the meantime, though, the high-octane show goes on, with a rookie who looks like his own monument at its center. If the talk among baseball obsessives has turned to how the home-run explosions of player and league alike will resolve themselves, the common fan’s perspective still centers on the plain awesomeness of them. On the Fourth of July, the Yankees played the Toronto Blue Jays and lost, 4-1. The one run they managed came when Judge scalded a line-drive homer to center. The headline of an article featured on ESPN.com’s main page that afternoon didn’t bother mentioning the outcome; it read, “Aaron Judge dents door casement at Yankee Stadium with 28th HR.” Such is the rookie’s appeal. When he puts a ball in the air, everything else—the score of the game, the league standings, the underlying causes of the sport’s broader trends—matters less than seeing where it finally lands.

Robert O'Connell is a writer based in Minneapolis. His work has appeared in The Guardian, Esquire, and Vice Sports.




棒球界的目光都集中在亚伦-贾奇身上
纽约洋基队的新秀猛男可能已经是这项运动的最大明星。他能保持这种状态吗？

罗伯特-奥康奈尔报道

纽约洋基队右外野手亚伦-贾奇（99号）在洋基体育场对阵多伦多蓝鸟队的第四局中打出两分本垒打。(Brad Penner / Reuters)
JULY 10, 2017

随着周二晚上的全明星赛，美国职业棒球大联盟的赛季达到了非正式的中点，而今年的故事，到目前为止，是亚伦-贾奇。作为纽约洋基队的新秀右外野手，贾奇已经产生了令人瞠目结舌的时刻，以至于很难挑出一个，但一个很好的例子是在6月11日，当洋基队在布朗克斯主场对阵巴尔的摩金莺队的时候。

在之前的比赛中，贾奇打出了他本赛季联盟领先的第19支全垒打，而那天他进一步增加了他的总数。在第六局中，他将一个内投球送上了495英尺高的左外野墙，这是今年所有球员中最长的一击。一局之后，金莺队的替补球员--洋基队此时以12比3领先--谨慎地投给贾奇，将球保持在本垒板的远端，但贾奇伸出手来，又向右击出一个本垒打。

在没有激烈比赛的情况下，这个下午的兴奋点在于看到他准确地描述了他的天赋的尺寸。投球的类型和位置并不重要。一旦贾奇的球棒遇到它们，它们都会在很远很远的地方结束。"他正在进行我认为是我见过的最惊人的展示！"约翰-斯特林声称，他在28年的纽约比赛中见证了五次世界大赛的冠军。

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25岁时，在一支年轻的洋基队中，贾奇以其超前的相关性让人惊讶，他是一个罕见的新秀和MVP候选人的组合。他也可能是棒球界最大的明星。他在全明星球迷投票中领先美国联盟，他将成为周一全垒打比赛的主角，洋基体育场看台的一个区域已被重新指定为 "贾奇的房间"，那里的信徒们穿着长袍，挥舞着大锤。他的统计数据，尽管令人印象深刻--30支全垒打，大联盟中最高的打击率和高于替补球员的胜率--只构成了他吸引力的一部分，主要的吸引力在于他在球场上的规模。

按照NBA或NFL的标准，贾奇是个大个子，但在他选择的运动范围内，他是个巨人。他身高六英尺七英寸，体重282磅，他所做的一切都非常大。他站在本垒上一动不动，当他得到一个他喜欢的球时，他的球棒就会扫向它，使它比其他人更快更远地飞向天空。如果他是一个视频游戏作品，贾奇的 "力量 "属性会一直滑到99--顺便说一下，他的制服号码。

贾奇不仅设定了本赛季的标准，而且他也体现了本赛季的趋势。在整个棒球界，2017年是一个全垒打的节日。它们的击球率比历史上任何时候都要高，而欣赏它们的方法也在不断发展。MLB的数据编制程序Statcast现在测量 "发射角 "和 "出口速度"，这些指标对贾奇有利，他已经拥有自2015年开始跟踪以来四支最难击出的全垒打中的三支。对于一项一直在努力争取年轻球迷的运动来说，深度击球和Statcast数据的结合对互联网非常友好，而扬基队的外野手证明了它们的造星潜力。贾奇打出了好球，MLB在推特上发布了一段充满数据的视频--"第一个在一个赛季中以115英里以上的速度打出6个本垒打的球员"--他的球衣销量也在攀升。

这场高亢的表演继续进行，中心是一个看起来像自己的纪念碑的新秀。
然而，无论它多么渴望可分享的明星，棒球仍然是一个温和的条纹，所以跟随贾奇的问题是一个被问及每一个新秀的问题，因为他们的成就只能通过报纸和广播分享。它能持续吗？到目前为止，通常部署在年轻猛男身上的反击策略--把他们投到内线，把破坏性的球扔出打击区--还没有让他安静下来，但他的赛季到目前为止有一种阳光的第一幕的感觉，还有一些必要的麻烦还在后面。他的体型和随之而来的大挥棒，现在非常有用，但在投手测试弱点时可能还需要一些调整。


类似的不确定性伴随着整个本垒打热潮，围绕着对其原因和持久力的假设已经形成了一个小产业。现在最流行的故事是，在进攻的休整期之后，MLB对棒球进行了调整，以帮助它们飞得更远；"Juiced Balls the New Steroids? "最近FiveThirtyEight的一篇文章问道。一个平行的理论认为，球员们正在使用他们所掌握的新的分析方法，改变发射角度，将投球抛向空中。每一种解释都为最终恢复到历史规范留出了空间。设备可能会恢复到旧的标准，而那些上钩的击球手可能会过度使用。

但与此同时，高亢的表演还在继续，中心是一个看起来像自己的纪念碑的新秀。如果棒球迷们的讨论已经转向球员和联盟的本垒打爆炸将如何解决，普通球迷的观点仍然集中在它们的平淡无奇上。7月4日，洋基队与多伦多蓝鸟队比赛，以4比1输掉了比赛。他们所得到的一分是由贾奇向中央击出的线上本垒打。当天下午，ESPN.com主页上的一篇文章的标题并没有提到结果；它写道："亚伦-贾奇在洋基体育场用第28个本垒打击穿了门框。" 这就是这个新秀的吸引力。当他把球打到空中时，其他的一切--比赛的比分、联盟的排名、这项运动更广泛的趋势的根本原因--都比不上看到球最终落在哪里重要。

Robert O'Connell是一名驻明尼阿波利斯的作家。他的作品曾出现在《卫报》、《Esquire》和《Vice Sports》上。