2022.04.23 预测共和党的未来

shiyi18

Daily chart
A Senate race in Pennsylvania could predict the Republican Party’s future
The primary shows the strength and limits of Donald Trump’s backing
Apr 23rd 2022
Give this article

Most of america’s presidents who lost their bids for re-election promptly retired from the political fray. Donald Trump has evidently chosen a different path. His false claims that President Joe Biden stole the 2020 election have kept him to the fore in an increasingly factious party. Though there is little doubt he will try to run again in 2024, whether he will hold as much sway as before is in question. A Republican Senate primary in Pennsylvania may hold some clues.

The race for the seat, left open by Pat Toomey, a retiring Republican, is likely to be tight. Pennsylvania voted for Mr Biden over Mr Trump by just one percentage point in 2020, and Mr Toomey won by only 1.5 points in 2016.

Equally vexing is who the parties will pick as their candidates for the contest. Seven Republicans are vying for their party’s nomination. Most will face off in a debate on Monday; the actual primary is on May 17th. Three leading candidates have emerged: Kathy Barnette, a conservative commentator; Dave McCormick, who ran Bridgewater Associates, a hedge fund ; and Mehmet Oz, a talk-show host and former heart surgeon.


It is anyone’s race. The Economist’s analysis of political polls for the primary shows each candidate within the margin of error with the others, all hovering around 20% of the vote. Endorsements from political leaders are divided. One tally by Ballotpedia, an elections website, shows Mr McCormick has won the lion’s share of approval from current and former officials. He counts among his supporters Ted Cruz, a senator from Texas, and Elise Stefanik, who replaced Liz Cheney as the chair of the House Republican Conference last year. Kellyanne Conway, a former adviser to Mr Trump, is also in his camp. Thirteen major leaders have endorsed him.

Just nine leaders have endorsed Mr Oz. But Mr Trump is among them, and his voice is considered the most important. According to a survey by Echelon Insights, a Republican polling firm, a hypothetical candidate who is endorsed by both Mr Trump and local party leaders would win the backing of Republican primary voters by 29 percentage points. Those endorsed by local leaders but not by the president would lose by ten. That is good news for Mr Oz. Yet the only poll released since Mr Trump announced his support on April 9th showed him up just three points—and that was a significant drop from the same pollster’s last survey in February.

The ex-president has also chimed in elsewhere. In Ohio’s Republican Senate primary, Mr Trump is pulling for J.D. Vance, an author and former venture capitalist. He has barely managed to muster 15% in the polls, behind two other challengers, though the surveys are scarce. And in Georgia, Mr Trump’s pick for governor, David Perdue, lags behind the incumbent, Brian Kemp, by double digits. If Mr Trump wielded the influence over his party that he used to, surely his candidates would be running ahead—or at least not so far behind. ■






每日图表
宾夕法尼亚州的一场参议院选举可以预测共和党的未来
初选显示了唐纳德-特朗普支持的力量和限度
2022年4月23日


美国大多数总统在竞选连任失败后，都迅速退出了政治舞台。唐纳德-特朗普显然选择了一条不同的道路。他谎称总统乔-拜登偷走了2020年的选举，使他在一个越来越多派系的政党中一直处于领先地位。尽管毫无疑问，他将在2024年尝试再次参选，但他是否会像以前那样拥有更大的影响力是个问题。宾夕法尼亚州的共和党参议院初选可能有一些线索。

由即将退休的共和党人帕特-图米(Pat Toomey)留下的这个席位的竞争可能会很激烈。2020年，宾夕法尼亚州对拜登先生的投票率仅比特朗普先生高一个百分点，而图米先生在2016年仅以1.5个百分点获胜。

同样令人困惑的是，两党将挑选谁作为他们的候选人参加比赛。七名共和党人正在争夺本党的提名。大多数人将在周一的辩论中对决；真正的初选是在5月17日。三个主要的候选人已经出现了。保守派评论员凯西-巴内特（Kathy Barnette）；经营对冲基金桥水公司（Bridgewater Associates）的戴夫-麦考密克（Dave McCormick）；以及脱口秀主持人、前心脏外科医生穆罕默德-奥兹（Mehmet Oz）。


这是任何人的比赛。经济学人》对初选政治民调的分析显示，每位候选人的得票率都在其他候选人的误差范围之内，都在20%左右徘徊。政治领导人的支持也有分歧。选举网站Ballotpedia的一项统计显示，麦考密克先生赢得了现任和前任官员的绝大部分支持。他的支持者包括德克萨斯州参议员特德-克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)和去年接替利兹-切尼(Liz Cheney)担任众议院共和党会议主席的伊利斯-斯特凡尼克(Elise Stefanik)。特朗普先生的前顾问凯莉安-康威也在他的阵营中。有13位主要领导人支持他。

只有九位领导人支持奥兹先生。但特朗普先生也在其中，而且他的声音被认为是最重要的。根据共和党民调公司Echelon Insights的调查，如果一个假设的候选人同时得到特朗普先生和当地政党领导人的支持，将赢得29个百分点的共和党初选选民的支持。那些得到当地领导人支持但没有得到总统支持的人将失去10个百分点。这对奥兹先生来说是个好消息。然而，自特朗普先生4月9日宣布支持以来，唯一公布的民调显示，他的支持率只上升了3个百分点--这与同一民调机构2月份的最后一次调查相比，有明显下降。

这位前总统也在其他地方发表了看法。在俄亥俄州的共和党参议院初选中，特朗普先生为作家和前风险资本家J.D. Vance拉票。他在民调中勉强达到了15%，落后于其他两位挑战者，尽管调查很少。在佐治亚州，特朗普先生挑选的州长大卫-珀杜(David Perdue)落后于现任州长布莱恩-坎普(Brian Kemp)两位数。如果特朗普先生能像以前那样对他的政党施加影响，他的候选人肯定会领先，或者至少不会落后这么多。■