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[2010.10.21] 全球房价: 从地板到天花板

2010-10-26 13:57| 发布者: lilywizardry| 查看: 5972| 评论: 8|原作者: majer

摘要: 本刊最新数据显示,大多数国家房地产市场正在转暖
079 Finance and economics - Global house prices.mp3

                                                                     
全球房价
从地板到天花板
本刊最新数据显示,大多数国家房地产市场正在转暖
 
英国《经济学人》杂志 2010年10月21日文章




去年今日,本刊全球房价调查表上满眼都是赤字。而今,颓势已被抛诸身后。最新的调查显示,20个市场中仅有4个仍在下跌,跌幅加深的更是只有爱尔兰一国。(美国的FHFA指数——去除大额抵押贷款融资房的价格指数——也在下跌,但Case-Shiller全美及十城市房价指数小幅上涨。)

继上一次(7月)的调查之后,亚洲再次一马当先。新加坡、香港和澳大利亚的同比涨幅虽较7月略有下降,但依旧气势如虹。中国今年前9个月的房价较去年同期上涨9.1%,不及前5个月的12.4%。但中国政府认为9.1%的涨幅仍然太高,于10月19日出人意料地提高了利率。除此之外,几周以来中国政府还出台了一系列市场降温措施,例如提高首付比例和在个别城市开征物业税。

我们通过比较房屋售租比的当前值与长期均值来分析房屋的“公平价值”。结果表明,中国的情况比澳大利亚要好一些,后者再次成为我们所追踪的国家中房价高估程度最严重的地区。由此看来,澳大利亚央行本月维持基准利率不变的举措实在令人大跌眼镜。

与往常一样,欧洲呈现出核心国与外围国的两极分化。从同比数字看,爱尔兰、西班牙和意大利的房价继续下滑,而德国和法国则大幅上涨,其中法国的涨势尤为强劲。英国的地产部门则正在失去抗拒地心引力的魔力,自7月以来,同比涨幅疲态渐露。英国房价仍处于被高估的水平,或许会经历出现大跌。

至少从售租比的角度看,如今美国房价正处于公平价值水平上下,这在经历了巨大泡沫的国家中可谓绝无仅有。饶是如此,其涨势亦恐难以为继。早先的房价上涨大大得益于大规模鼓励购房政策和政府补贴,而这些优惠措施现在大多已经取消。一旦人们对借款人丧失房产赎回权的担忧影响到房屋销售,美国房屋库存积压局面可能会进一步恶化。除此之外还有另一大隐忧:1100万例抵押贷款处于资不抵债的状态,借款人可能选择断供(详见本期经济聚焦)。而房价处于或低于公平价值水平也不意味着房价必然反弹:日本房价的售租比远远低于长期均值,但今年1季度房价仍然下跌了4%。
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引用 亚特兰大 2010-10-26 22:05
很有水平的文章。。值得学习
引用 zhyu94 2010-11-6 21:24
楼主翻译得好好  崇拜~
个人觉得fair value 译作 公允价值 会比较准确~
引用 mmaki 2010-11-8 21:50
good
引用 mmaki 2010-11-8 21:57
回复 majer 的帖子

你太强了
引用 hanqingyaonan 2010-11-9 22:52
boast the gaudiest year-on-year price increases怎么翻译?
引用 hanqingyaonan 2010-11-9 22:52
boast the gaudiest year-on-year price increases怎么翻译?
引用 second 2011-2-9 08:30
我百度了一下,有翻译得更专业的。如下文。
Oct 21st 2010 经济学人杂志

Global house prices
全球房价
Floor to ceiling
从低谷到峰值
Our latest round-up shows that prices are on the rise in most markets
我们最近的总结表明大多数市场的房价都在上涨。


THIS time last year, The Economist’s survey of global house prices was a sea of negative numbers. That was then. Of the 20 markets tracked in our latest survey, only four still posted year-on-year declines and only Ireland’s property catastrophe has worsened. (America’s FHFA index, which excludes houses that are financed with large mortgages, was also down, but the country’s Case-Shiller national and ten-city indices rose modestly.)
去年这个时候,《经济学人》关于全球房价的调查是一片消极的数字。时过境迁。在我们追踪调查的20个市场中,只有4个市场的房价同比下跌,只有爱尔兰的房地产灾难有所恶化。(美国的FHFA指数也有所下降,该指数不包括受大量抵押贷款资助的住房,但是美国全国和10个城市的凯斯席勒指数适度上升。)


Asia’s price rises lead the way, as they did when the data were last published in July. Singapore, Hong Kong and Australia boast the gaudiest year-on-year price increases, even if the rate of appreciation is down a bit from the summer. House prices in China rose by 9.1% in the year to September, compared with a 12.4% rise in May. That is still too fast for the government, which unexpectedly raised interest rates on October 19th and has outlined more measures to cool the market in recent weeks, including higher down-payment requirements and the introduction of a property tax in some cities.
亚洲的房价一路领先,与7月最近一次公布的数据表现一样。新加坡、香港和澳大利亚的房价同比上涨速度最快,尽管与夏季相比,上升速度有所放缓。截止今年9月,中国的房价上涨了9.1%,而5月份的涨幅为12.4%。这样的上涨速度对中国政府来说还是太快了,在10月19日出人意料地提高了利率并在最近几周制定了更多的措施为市场降温,其中包括提高首付款和在一些城市开征房产税。

Our analysis of “fair value” in housing, which is based on comparing the current ratio of house prices to rents with its long-run average, suggests that China has less to worry about than the likes of Australia, which is again the most overvalued of the markets we track. That makes it all the more surprising that Australia’s central bank opted not to increase its benchmark interest rate this month.
我们的住房“公平价值”分析是建立在比较当前的房价与租价比率和其长期的平均值基础之上的。该分析表明中国不必像澳大利亚等国那样担忧,澳大利亚再次成为我们追踪的市场中高估程度最严重的市场。这使澳大利亚央行本月不提高其基准利率更加令人惊讶了。

Europe shows a familiar split between core countries and peripheral ones. Ireland, Spain and Italy continue to suffer year-on-year price declines; German and French homes have shown big gains in value over the past year, a particular turnaround for France since our previous round-up. The British housing sector’s talent for defying gravity may be on the wane. The pace of annual appreciation in the country’s property market has slowed over the summer. British housing is still overvalued—outright falls may loom.
欧洲显示的核心国家和边缘国家之间的差别耳熟能详。爱尔兰、西班牙和意大利的房价仍然同比下跌,德国和法国的住房价格在过去一年大幅攀升,尤其是法国在我们的上一次总结之后获得了转机。英国房地产业的房价防跌能力可能正在减弱。该房地产市场在整个夏季年增长速度有所放缓。但是英国的房价还是被高估了——可能即将大幅下跌。

America’s housing market, almost alone among those which experienced a big bubble, is more or less fairly valued at this point, at least according to price-to-rent ratios. But price rises may not last for long. Earlier gains were driven by substantial reward programmes and government subsidies, many of which have now lapsed. America’s overhang of housing inventory may get worse if concerns over lenders’ foreclosure processes jam up sales. The temptation for the country’s 11m underwater borrowers to walk away is another threat (see Economics Focus). And being at or below fair value is no guarantee of a bounce in prices: Japanese housing fell by 4% in the year to the end of the first quarter, despite being stuck far below its long-run price-to-rents ratio.
美国的楼市几乎是那些经历过巨大泡沫的楼市中,当前价值基本公平的唯一市场,至少根据房价与租价的比率来判断是如此。但是房价上涨可能不会持续太久。先前的涨势是由大量的回报计划和政府补贴驱动的,现在其中的许多政策已经失效。如果人们担心放贷者的没收房产程序会阻碍销售,美国的住房空置情况可能恶化。吸引1100万抵押贷款高于其住房价值的借贷者离开的诱惑又是一种威胁。处于或低于公平价值根本无法保证房价反弹:尽管远低于其长期房价与租价比率,截止今年第一季度末,日本房价下跌了4%。
引用 guyueting118 2011-2-24 09:19
不错嘛

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